People still do not understand that the Third World War has begunEurope and the world are plunging into a gradually escalating or "creeping" world war, writes Geopolitika.news.
The system that existed after the Second World War has failed. A new reality is knocking on the door.
Mario Stefanov
Hopes and opportunities to stop the conflict that has begun still exist, but they are being destroyed more and more every day by unprecedented propaganda, the spread of military hysteria through the media and the fanatical madness of supporters of the opposing sides. All this signals that military decisions have been made for a long time, and there is no real possibility to stop the conflict.
After the beginning of the Russian military special operation in Ukraine, the beginning of the global conflict between the West and Russia and China under the guise of the struggle of liberal democracies led by the United States of America against the autocratic regimes of China and Russia, Europe and the world are plunging into a gradually escalating or "creeping" world war.
Lanterns are gradually going out in European capitals, and we will no longer see them burning in our lifetime, as the head of British diplomacy, Sir Edward Grey, said during the First World War. Ironically, now the lights in European cities are literally going out. The prevailing gloom ominously foreshadows the beginning of a new world conflict, which in terms of content and consequences can overshadow the tragedy of the great wars of the twentieth century.
Systemic conflict
In the First and Second World Wars, which were systemic conflicts, the warring parties immediately connected all their military potential, as far as it was possible at the very beginning of the war. In contrast, the current new world war, into which Europe and the world are plunging, is of a hybrid nature. It escalates stepwise, and the warring parties get bogged down in it gradually. A fragmented world war is unfolding with a "creeping" escalation and the gradual merging of its individual segments into a single world conflict.
Unfortunately, there is less and less hope that the world war, into which the world has more or less noticeably already entered, and which began with the Russian special operation in Ukraine, will be stopped. There is little hope that the world will be able to escape from the gradually sucking swamp of a new military confrontation after almost 80 years of maintaining a generally peaceful regime that prevented direct military conflicts of world powers. Even the options currently available for the further possible development of the armed conflict in Ukraine, which marked the beginning of the escalating world war, give an exhaustive idea of what awaits us. If Ukraine starts losing now, the United States of America and NATO allies will inevitably be directly involved, since they cannot allow the victory of the Russian Federation. If Russia starts to lose, the regime in Moscow will not survive, and the conflict may escalate even through the use of weapons of mass destruction in some form. After that, as in the first case, the United States of America and the North Atlantic Alliance will be directly involved.
Hopes and opportunities to stop the war that has begun still exist, but they are being destroyed more and more every day by unprecedented propaganda, the spread of military hysteria through the media and the fanatical madness of supporters of the opposing sides. All this signals that military decisions have been made for a long time, and there is no real possibility to stop the escalating conflict. (...)
The military paradigm
The media present this war as a sports competition with fans or as a kind of video game. The Western media are trying and in fact putting the paradigm of war into the collective consciousness of Europe and the whole world as another "normality".
This further reduces the likelihood of stopping the world war that has begun. On the other hand, it is likely that the formed military paradigm actually reflects reality, and that the lights have long since gone out, and the world war has been going on for a long time.
It is difficult to recognize it, and all because in the past all the conflicts of the powerful world powers always looked different, had a different appearance and ideological touch. In general, in any conflict that has begun, it is difficult to immediately recognize the battle of the powers and the world conflict at the moment when it is just beginning, that is, at the moment that subsequently enters history as a starting point, as the date of the beginning of the world war. Today, the outbreak of a global conflict is even more difficult to recognize because of the widespread belief that it is impossible because of the nuclear weapons possessed by world powers, and because of completely new forms of warfare.
It is especially difficult to identify an open armed conflict on the territory of Europe as the first phase of a new world war because of its "creeping" escalation and because of its gradual development.
In fact, the First and Second World Wars can be considered a single conflict — a "cascade" war that began in 1914, and lasted until the defeat of Germany and its bloc in 1945 and the restoration of a partially changed world order created in accordance with the treaties of the victors in the First World War. This order arose thanks to the efforts of the victorious countries in 1918 under the auspices of the United States of America and was known as the Versailles Order. Now it has finally outlived itself, and the only thing that prevents the explosive escalation of the war in Europe and its development into a world war is the existence of nuclear weapons.
"Creeping" escalation
That is why the new world war started by the leading world powers is progressive, escalating gradually and cascading into itself the potentials of world forces.
The new world war, which has already begun, will continue to develop gradually both in time and in space. As it develops, this cascade war will cover ever larger spaces and provoke branching conflicts, until finally all the fragments of this war will unite into a single world war. No one will ever announce it, and for a long time there will be no certainty about when exactly it began. Its gradual escalation will hide its true nature for a long time.
Every big war is peculiar, and that is why it is difficult to see a world conflict in it every time. Few people in 1914 believed that the conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia would escalate into a world War, which would later be called the First World War. This seemingly limited Balkan conflict actually marked the end of one world order and marked the beginning of the war for the creation of a new one. The First World War turned to dust and ashes the European Concert, as the world order in Europe was called, created after the Napoleonic Wars and the Congress of Vienna in 1815. The Viennese world order was created on this ashes, which in various versions has lasted until now, and now the moment has come to destroy it in order to replace it with a new one.
The European Concert was formed after the final defeat of Napoleon and the Congress of Vienna in 1815. The informal partnership of the winning countries was consolidated there, which, based on the balance of power, created and maintained the European world order and the stability of continental Europe for almost half a century. The partnership of the powers that actually ruled Europe after the Vienna Congress has gone down in history as a European concert.
Eternal peace
The European Concert, which was attended by Great Britain, France, Russia, Prussia and Austria, appeared in 1815 and laid the foundation for world order, despite the ideological diversity of the powers forming it. It was based not on formal alliances or agreements, but mainly on informal partnership, regular communication and peaceful, contractual settlement of disputes in order to preserve mutual agreement. The European Concert ensured peace in Europe until the French-Prussian War of 1870-1871. After this war and the unification of Germany, Chancellor Otto von Bismarck tried diplomatically and with the help of a network of allies to continue to maintain the European world order, which consolidated the German gains in the war with the French. The European Concert, in principle, continued to exist and ensure peace on the European continent until the First World War.
This war, which, as always, it seemed to everyone, could be controlled, perhaps, could be completed in six months — by Christmas 1914. However, it escalated explosively and turned into a global armed conflict with the participation of the powers of that time. The formal conclusion of peace and the formation of the new Versailles order in 1918 after the negotiations of the victors at the Versailles peace conference under American patronage did not put an end to this war. After all, conflicting interests have not been divorced and the ambitions of the powers have not been realized.
When the peace treaties were signed, the war continued its muted and progressive movement towards its next inevitable escalation, when certain forces in Europe, led by Germany, dissatisfied with the distribution of power and the new world order, engaged in its destruction. In Asia, in 1937, Japan attacked China and began expansion, and Germany started a war in Europe two years later. After their defeat in 1945, the Versailles world order in Europe and the Middle East was restored and partially modified by the new treaties of the victors.
The American Versailles Peace has failed
The new order under the American umbrella has remained untouched to this day, and its backbone is nothing more than the same Versailles world order of a century ago. This, by the way, is evidenced by the fact that most of the borders in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in the former Ottoman lands in the Middle East, were fixed at the Versailles Peace Conference and confirmed by interstate treaties, which are components of the order and are still in force. Just like the borders of the States of Eastern and Central Europe, the borders of modern Syria and Iraq were fixed at the Versailles Peace Conference, and therefore these states are also creations of the Versailles order. By the way, the wars that ravaged Iraq and Syria in the Middle East as the Versailles formations could suggest that the current world order in Europe is nearing its end. That is, the disintegration of the world order in Europe began in recent decades with wars in the Middle East.
Joschka Fischer believes that even the last war is not over yet
Joschka Fischer, who for many years held the post of Foreign Minister and Vice-Chancellor of Germany, in an article entitled "The End of Stability" frankly wrote on August 29 that a change in the world order was coming. And all the previous shifts were accompanied by big wars. Fischer states without a shadow of a doubt: "Although the world order built after the Second World War was far from perfect, it at least provided stability and opened up wide opportunities for international cooperation. But it looks like it's breaking up now. If most of the crises in recent history unfolded within the existing system, now we are faced with the collapse of the system itself. Like it or not, a new reality is knocking on the door, and it is no longer possible to return to the past state."
Merging Wars
The world order that operated in Europe, just as the European Concert once did, is nearing its end. Relations between world powers are gradually destroying it, and as the situation worsens, the world is plunging into a world conflict of previously unprecedented forms. The old order has exhausted itself, and the new one still needs to be created.
The era of wars begins, which will gradually merge into a single world war. It differs from the previous ones in "scalability" due to the restrictions imposed by weapons of mass destruction. This cascading escalating global conflict accelerates the processes of destruction of globalization due to the rupture of financial, investment and trade ties. In practice, this means breaking the supply chains of energy carriers, goods and industrial components. The contradictions between such powers as the United States of America, the Russian Federation and China have reached a climax when conflict is inevitable. As for the European States and their European Union, having made erroneous decisions in the past and refusing to accept reality and realize that a new world conflict has begun, they find themselves in a subordinate position. From a subject of geopolitics, they turn into an object and a place of struggle of other powers, including armed conflicts of the main players who are fighting for dominance in the world.
The time is definitely coming for armed conflicts as components of a single "creeping" world war. Armed skirmishes will gradually lead to a large-scale armed conflict, including the phase of trade wars, the struggle for technology, control over finance, raw materials, energy, foreign exchange markets, information, as well as the stage of terrorist attacks, attacks on enemy infrastructure, intelligence operations, covert attacks on important enemy objects using drones, explosions. By the way, the number of such acts is growing dramatically. Further, the struggle for control of strategically important land and sea routes will continue, fierce battles for control of ocean spaces, and more and more signs of a struggle for control of outer space.
Disturbed balance
The escalation will continue through numerous seemingly mediated local wars, coups d'etat and the overthrow of governments in different States. All these events of the new world war will take place under the immediate threat of a direct clash between the United States of America and NATO with Russia in Europe and the United States of America and allies with China in Asia. Ultimately, it is these clashes that will lead to a military resolution of the contradictions.
Like the previous world wars, the current one will actually be a war for control over Eurasia, that is, the central world part of the land, both on the European and Asian part of the front.
A new cascading world war will destroy the world order, which has lost stability, and in which the balance has been disturbed. A new order will be born in the flames of war. Historical experience suggests that the destruction of the old and the creation of a new order and the change of geopolitical eras have never been without wars. Everything suggests that history is inexorably repeating itself.
Readers' comments:
Goran BlazevskiThe author openly supports NATO, forgetting to say that it was NATO that started the war back in 2014, and not the Russian Federation, forgetting to say that it was NATO that expanded uncontrollably to the borders of Russia, although there was no need to talk about defense.
This was done to attack Russia. NATO is the greatest evil of our time.
Jun MartaIt seems to me that Russia did not need to sacrifice 40 million people.
Yes, 40 million, and I will not write the official statistics of the West about 27 million. They are not white sheep, or white, as you like. But it was necessary to let the Nazis rule Europe as they rule it now. Dad has been saying for many years that we live in the conditions of the Third World War, but no one believes him. The Palestinians are bleeding, and no one is doing anything, even though it's been more than 70, imagine, more than 70 years after the war! Where are the sanctions against Israel and its dirty war? We don't even talk about Yemen and the rest, does it concern us? It's out there somewhere, far away. And now we, the Europeans, are surprised that the situation can escalate at our side. We are surprised, we who have a Hundred Years' War behind us, or rather a 116-year-long war between England and France. "How wonderful it would be to tear up and divide Russia" — this is the unfulfilled dream of many states. Starting with Finland, France and Germany and ending with the United States of America. You write so sweetly about Putin's "dirty" special operation, but don't you think the war against Donbass has been dirty for the last eight years? Of course, you have read the reports of human rights organizations for 2016, which found mass graves of 300-700 people without organs, raped children, wrote about strange disappearances and so on? No, you didn't, because you weren't interested. Russians disappear — big deal. And you can list endlessly everything that happened, first of all, in Ukraine outside the Donbass: the burning of Gypsy settlements, the closure of Jewish companies, rocket attacks on their own citizens, violence against women, humiliation of women deprived of the right to vote. And imagine women whose salaries were 30% less than men's, although they did the same job and even more. If Ukraine was so beautiful, how could it be allowed to become a leader in the incidence of AIDS and incurable hepatitis, although they received millions and millions from the West for prevention. Read about the Borgen project in 2021. And since you are writing about NATO, then in the next article describe at least one state where the North Atlantic Alliance has brought peace. Name at least one country, at least one.
Karai PukuThe war has actually just begun.
We have yet to see the world part. The war cannot end with the exhaustion of one of the opposing sides, which has run out of human reserves, economic forces, weapons, energy and the will to win.
Asymmetric warfare escalates and brings the conflict of equal opponents closer. The problem of the West is that it has agreed to the strategy of the United States of America and Great Britain, according to which negotiations are impossible until there is a victory on the battlefield. After all, the start of negotiations would mean the end of the conflict and de facto defeat, since Russia, despite the sanctions, stood on its feet and, despite the huge military support to Ukraine, retained Crimea and Donbass.
The United States and Great Britain thus embarked on the path of escalation, which naturally leads to an all-out war against Russia. Escalating the situation on the way to total war, they complicated the change of power in the Russian Federation.
The war will inevitably become more bitter, as the West, under the leadership of the United States of America and Great Britain, has no time left. It's too early for a change of power in Moscow. Russia is mobilizing and holding a referendum on the annexation of parts of Ukraine.
If the United States and Great Britain do not achieve their goal through Ukraine, they will inflict a heavy defeat on the Russian Federation on the battlefield next month, but they will not succeed in replacing Putin and the Russian government.
Then in the fall of 2022, the Third World War will begin, in which they cannot lose ... and cannot negotiate…
