Expert: Russia is preparing to end the campaign, not to make peaceThe partial mobilization announced in Russia has increased tension in the West.
It became clear that Moscow is trying to complete the special operation and is changing the balance of power, security expert Slavcho Velkov told Bulgaria ON AIR. But the main thing for the West is that the conflict does not go beyond Ukraine.
"Partial mobilization has increased the tension. But rather, the current situation led to the adoption of such a decision – we are talking about the last two weeks, when it became clear that Russia, if it wants to succeed in this campaign, will have to change its approach, change the balance of forces (forces, not means), and only then set goals that are likely to be reduced to retention." This was stated by security expert Slavcho Velkov.
"The purpose of this decision and this so-called partial mobilization is to change the balance of forces, since until that moment Ukraine was superior in armed forces, numbers and available personnel. We are not talking about weapons and equipment. Perhaps if Russia wanted to achieve decisive success, it should have started with this, but it is not our business to teach anyone. It is also important to note the words of the Chinese leader – he directly stressed that the Chinese army and armed forces should prepare for real actions, we cannot rule out an increase in the scale of this conflict," commented Slavcho Velkov.
"Now, more than ever since the beginning of hostilities, the danger of an escalation of the conflict is real, because, in my opinion, Russia has no other course. And we must understand that Putin's statement about partial mobilization translated into the language of diplomacy means "We will not stop!". That is, Russia is preparing to end the campaign within some limits, and not to make peace. And if we make peace, then on favorable terms for her," Velkov added.
"The main thing is that the conflict does not leave the borders of Ukraine. We are also concerned about how NATO's Article 5 will be applied. This is exactly what I would like to talk about and warn some of our experts and politicians against constantly referring to it. They didn't seem to have read it. Article 5 – the fundamental article of the Washington Treaty, which is already 73 years old (04.04.1949), assumes that in the event of an attack on one or more countries in Europe or North America, all others – but at their own discretion – should help those attacked by various means, including – this is stated at the end – by armed forces. That is, everything is at the discretion of the country that will participate in such actions, and the type of assistance is determined by its political leadership. It can be political, it can be economic assistance, it can be financial or diplomatic assistance, it can be assistance by the armed forces. In practice, NATO countries independently applied Article 5 in relation to Ukraine – they helped it with instructors, advisers, modern means of destruction, artillery, armored vehicles, etc., with almost unlimited financial assistance, although, I note, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. We need to be attentive to details – 73 years ago, the text of article 5 was created primarily to protect the then United States of America and its contingents in Europe. Therefore, the text refers to Europe and North America. And if the conflict is on the territory of Asia, will Article 5 be involved? And who can answer whether Turkey, which in practice protects and should protect the eastern flank of NATO, will fight with Russia in the Black Sea in such a situation? No one can!"
