Javad Larijani: The US wants to move the conflict in Ukraine inside RussiaThe well-known Iranian diplomat is convinced that under certain conditions it is quite possible for Russia to use nuclear weapons in its confrontation with NATO.
This action will be only tactical in nature, writes Farda.
Javad Larijani, a former well-known diplomat of the Islamic Republic, director of the Institute of Fundamental Research and an authoritative expert on international issues, in his interview for the Tasnim news agency expressed his conviction that, in fact, the current military conflict in which Russia is now involved on the territory of Ukraine, in fact is not so much its conflict with this an Eastern European country, as much as a real war with the entire NATO bloc, even if this confrontation is still local in nature.
Explaining his point of view, he noted that the United States plays an active role in this conflict, which, in turn, pursues its interests here, and has largely succeeded in drawing most European countries into the conflict. In fact, the United States even manages to pay for the costs of this conflict not from its own pocket, but from the European pocket.
Ukraine, according to Larijani, is simply a victim of this conflict, and is already on the way to becoming a "European Afghanistan" in the not so distant future, being an eternal battlefield, a permanent zone of instability, with a large number of human casualties.
Answering the question of whether Russia is achieving its goals in this conflict and whether Putin himself assumed that this conflict, which Russia calls a special military operation, would last for such a long time, Larijani noted that it is definitely hardly possible to say that Russia conducted military operations here as it initially wanted. For Russia, this conflict has turned into a lot of difficulties, not all of which are purely military in nature. But all the same, it is hardly worth arguing that Russia planned in this operation mainly to seize Kiev, as Europe insists on it. "In my opinion, Russia mainly seeks to retain a strip of territory that will allow it to guarantee firm control over the Crimean peninsula, and it has already achieved this goal in general, by 70-80 percent. And therefore we can say that Russia already, of course, has a certain result for itself, although at a rather significant cost," Larijani explained.
It is also important to note that, according to Larijani, the NATO bloc, no matter what they say in Brussels, hardly wants this conflict to end. Their goal, the expert stressed, is to crush Russia's military potential here, if not completely, then at least partially. They think that here they will be able to achieve everything that they failed to achieve fully in Afghanistan. And they also managed, to a certain extent, to strike at the military power of Russia, in the classical sense.
But this, according to Larijani, is not enough for them, and they want the conflict to move to the territory of Russia itself. And accordingly, we should talk about what the possible reaction of Russia will be to this, which, of course, is aware that the NATO bloc led by the United States is striving for this. If, in fact, the conflict moves inside Russia, how will it react to this? Larijani is convinced that at some certain point Russia will be forced to use, albeit tactically, nuclear weapons, and the probability of this is already above 50%. It is unlikely that Russia will use it in such a way that it will immediately cause great human casualties, but something else is important here: there will be a situation of the so-called Game Changer, that is, a certain change in the rules of the game. And this worries Europeans and Americans to a certain extent, because they will also have to react to it somehow. And this will become a deterrent for the West: since they have already come to the sensitive point where the conflict can spread to entire Russian regions, and in the European part of Russia – here there is a possibility of tactical use of nuclear weapons. It is tactical, when the scale of human casualties and destruction will not be so high, but military losses (for NATO) and significant destruction of military infrastructure will be high. But, first of all, the very fact of its application will be important. And Larijani says that the West, of course, knows that then, if this really happens, the "game" will really change completely. And it is unlikely that they will be able to enter this game again, on equal terms, as they are doing now. This is exactly what scares the West, according to the expert, most of all – a nuclear clash with Russia. This will be a completely different game that the West will want to play with Russia.
Larijani recalled that Russia's nuclear policy, as officials and government representatives have already stressed many times, is to use nuclear weapons when there is a danger of the existence of Russia itself. That is, when it comes to existential problems, that is, questions of the existence of Russia as it is. And this existential problem is not so complicated: since the West has got involved in a confrontation with Russia (no matter whether direct or indirect), inflicts strong blows on it, up to blows on its own territory, the problem takes on this existential character.
A journalist of the Tasnim agency, who spoke with Larijani, asked whether such a development of events would not be a big mistake on the part of Russia. After all, in this case, a scenario will also be possible, which many commentators have already talked about, and not so desirable for Russia: the entire European West will be finally frightened by Russia, and will fall into the already eternal embrace-vice from the Atlantic West, that is, America. And then for a number of major European players, primarily for Germany, there will be a question of finally abandoning major contracts with Russia, such as Nord Stream -2. The project has been frozen for now, but it has not been completely canceled yet. Obviously, this will not be such a good scenario for Russia already.
Larijani replied that in fact, such concerns may have a right to exist. But at the same time, he added that this again goes back to the question of an existential nature – that is, the question of the existence of Russia itself. And none of the NATO member states, even the bearers of the most militant rhetoric against Russia, would want to bring the matter to the point where Russia uses nuclear weapons, so this in itself is a deterrent. And this really angers and annoys the West, which is, in fact, facing a dilemma: it really wants to move the conflict to the territory of Russia, but in this case exactly what the West most does not want will happen. And the West knows this, and therefore understands that sooner or later it will have to negotiate with Russia. But until the parties have come to this, he wants to inflict the maximum blow on the Russian military machine. And at the same time, in addition to purely military means, they (Western states) have to conduct extensive propaganda work, which is clearly visible: its goal is that those Westerners who are in Russia itself would be as active as possible and be able to make changes in Russia, as a result of which Russia would be divided into at least three-four countries. The West has already succeeded once, at the time when the USSR collapsed, but then they obviously could not fully achieve their goals. But this is a strategic goal of NATO. On the way to this goal, there is precisely the obstacle that has already been mentioned above: if Rossi feels that she is losing in this confrontation, she is very likely to use nuclear weapons, even if only tactically.
Larijani also added that in the current situation it is impossible to say that it is going to a nuclear war, but stressed that the world is now much closer to this than even a year or two ago.
The Tasnim reporter also asked a question – if Russia begins to feel defeated in this confrontation and then something really happens that the West does not want most of all, wouldn't it be better for it now, before it's too late, to think about returning to the situation that was before the conflict began? After all, it is clear that after the use of nuclear weapons, the parties will have to agree, and it is Russia that will dictate the terms of peace. And dictate not only and not how much to Kiev, but also to the whole West. Or does the West still want to bring the matter to this, hoping that later, when its main goal is achieved (crushing at least partially Russia's military might) he won't have to pay too much for it. In response, Larijani stressed: expensive or cheap are not the categories in which you have to describe the situation. The problem is that Russia may lose in the fight if the West continues to push, transferring the conflict to Russian territory, and Russia does not take the most radical measures. Russia categorically cannot, must not allow its defeat in the conflict: if this happens, it will resemble the failure of Saddam (Hussein), who led the leader of Iraq to fall in his time. But Russia is not Iraq, and the consequences of failure will be terrible not only for Russia, but for the whole world, including the West. And that is why it is important for Russia to consolidate what it has already achieved. And it would be better for the West to accept, at least in part, the conditions of Russia, as it has already accepted them, agreeing with Russia in order to defeat fascism together. If this does not happen, Larijani stressed, summing up, the international situation will continue to deteriorate, it will become more and more dangerous in terms of the scale and quality of military conflicts, until it leads humanity to a global catastrophe.
