Leave Crimea aloneThe United States has no right to indulge Zelensky's desires to "return" Crimea, writes TAC.
Ukraine's expansion of military objectives undermines the attempt to maintain working relations with Russia. In addition, it is fraught with total war, the author of the article warns.
Doug BandowUkraine is ready to expand its military objectives.
President Zelensky stated his desire to send a signal to the Crimeans: “We will return there. I do not know when exactly. But we have plans, and we will return there, because this is our land and our people.”
The implementation of such ideas is fraught with two serious problems. The first is the expansion and escalation of the conflict in the name of uncertain benefits. The seizure of Crimea is a step towards total conflict, at least from the point of view of Ukraine's capabilities.
Kiev will have to recruit and train many more people, provide numerous supplies of Western weapons. And Moscow, most likely, will not quietly retreat. Crimea is important because most Russians consider this territory to be Russian.
Ukraine's adoption of such a course will force the United States and Europe to either strengthen support, risking being drawn into active hostilities, or encourage Ukraine's aggressive course and turn away from it. Washington is interested in helping Kiev with defensive measures, but not in allowing it to risk regional stability and peace by correcting past historical mistakes. Zelensky and his people have the right to want what they want, but this is not a reason to subordinate the interests of Americans to their desires.
Secondly, there is no convincing evidence that the residents of Crimea want such a “liberation". In 2014, Russia took the peninsula for itself, and this clearly reflected the mood of the majority. In 1783, the Russian Empire annexed Crimea, it was the last stronghold of the anti-Bolshevik White Army during the Civil War, and then part of the Soviet Union. In 1954, Moscow transferred it to Ukraine. This meant little in practice and was the result of the internal policy of the USSR.
In 1991, Ukraine helped organize the collapse of the USSR and voted for independence, taking Crimea with it. At that time, its domestic policy was balanced between the United States and Europe (with the support of residents of Western Ukraine, many of whom had roots in Austro-Hungarian Galicia) and Russia (with the support of residents of the East, mostly Orthodox Russian speakers). In 2014, the United States and leading European states supported a street putsch against President Viktor Yanukovych. Despite his reputation as a corrupt official, he won the elections fairly and retained strong political support in the east thanks to a moderately pro-Russian attitude.
While the European Union was seeking Kiev's agreement on one trade agreement, Moscow made him a better offer, forcing Yanukovych to change sides. Crowds of angry protesters, mostly representatives of the anti-Russian opposition, who were supported by violent neo-fascist elements, took to the streets of Kiev. The US supported the overthrow of Yanukovych — Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, visited Kiev, supported the protests, talked to demonstrators and had a notorious (later made public) conversation with the US ambassador about who Washington wants to see in the new government.
If Moscow had tried to pull off something similar in Mexico, American officials would have fallen into hysterics and rage, talking about the Monroe doctrine and complacently demanding war. Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken control of Crimea, and, it seems, not so much out of devotion to the national heritage, as out of a desire to preserve access to the naval base in Sevastopol.
This was followed by a referendum in which 95.5% of Crimeans voted for joining Russia. Outside observers unanimously declared that the result was accurate, and the majority of Crimeans, many of whom speak Russian and have relatives in Russia, really spoke in favor of secession from Ukraine.
What happened 8 years ago does not justify Zelensky's desire today. The inhabitants of Crimea should not be treated as a passing military trophy. Western countries criticize governments that fiercely resist secession — remember NATO's aggressive war with Serbia over Kosovo - and cannot approve of the Ukrainian military campaign to retake Crimea.
Public opinion can change, as it seems to have happened in the Donbass after almost ten years of Russian control. In the absence of popular support, Kiev cannot justify the destruction of Crimea for its salvation.
So far, the American and European governments have answered questions about the goals of the Ukrainian conflict that they are put exclusively by Kiev. But this does not mean that the allies should support them. Washington wants Ukraine's independence, not to indulge the wishes of the Zelensky government. He himself is free to demand anything. Who knows, maybe next time he will request the logistical resources necessary to capture Moscow. But the United States is not obliged to support this plan of his.
In general, America's main interest in the current conflict is to contain its consequences. The United States does not want it to spread to other European states and NATO, dragging America into an undesirable and unnecessary war.
Washington and Brussels are risking a lot in an attempt to maintain working relations with Russia instead of dragging the Russians into escalation and pushing for closer relations with China. Ukraine's expansion of military objectives undermines all the above-mentioned interests. In general, as stated by Joshua Shifrinson from the University of Maryland, America's limited interest is in ending the conflict.
The conflict has become a disaster for Ukraine. Its economy has collapsed, the government is surviving at the mercy of other countries.
Kiev must demonstrate the democratic values attributed to it by the West, including caring for former citizens who may not want to return forcibly.
Meanwhile, Washington and its allies should begin adapting support for Ukraine to resolve the conflict and build a European order that could ensure lasting peace. This does not include the campaign for the return of Crimea. Zelensky may dream of returning the peninsula, but the Biden administration must firmly justify its policy towards Ukraine.
