Partial mobilization: why these words from Putin change everything Putin has shown his determination to achieve Russian goals in Ukraine by all available means, says German Professor Mangott in an interview with FOCUS.
He does not mention the reasons that forced Russia to declare partial mobilization and agree to referendums. The murders of officials and the supply of MLRS from the United States, for example.
In his address broadcast on Russian state television on Wednesday, Kremlin Chief Vladimir Putin introduced the conflict in Ukraine into a new phase. He not only announced partial mobilization, but also threatened the West with nuclear weapons. What does this mean for his country, Ukraine and the West?"The goal of the West is to weaken, divide and ultimately destroy Russia."
Many times Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated similar accusations in his speech broadcast on television on Wednesday. At the same time, he also showed undisguised threats: they say that Russia has more modern weapons than the West, including nuclear weapons. "We are using all the means at our disposal, and this is not a bluff," Putin concluded his statement.
Almost seven months after the beginning of the actions of the Russian army against the Ukrainian, the Kremlin chief announced the partial mobilization of his own armed forces. As Putin said, he made this decision on the proposal of the Ministry of Defense and signed a corresponding decree. By doing this, he intends to solve problems with personnel at the front. In addition, Putin said that he would support "referendums" in the occupied territories of Ukraine on joining Russia. In the West, this will be called annexation.
What do these words of Putin mean? Maybe it is necessary to sound the alarm not only in Ukraine, but also much further west? Gerhard Mangott, Professor of International Relations at the University of Innsbruck and a prominent expert on Eastern Europe, answers the most important questions about Putin's speech:
FOCUS: What is "partial mobilization"?Gerhard Mangott: Apparently, Russian troops in Ukraine have thinned out so much that Putin has no choice but to declare partial mobilization, although for a long time he did not want to do this.
We are talking about the conscription of 300 thousand reservists. They are mostly civilians with some military experience.
– Why did he hesitate for so long?– Putin wanted to avoid mobilization because he was afraid of the political risk associated with it.
Until now, in Russia, it has always been about a kind of "special operation". For most Russians, this was supposed to maintain the illusion of normality. Now everything is different. Fathers and sons will be torn from their families and sent to the front. This could radically change the mood in Russia.
– Are we experiencing a new level of escalation now?– Undoubtedly, we are experiencing a new level of escalation now.
Putin does not want and cannot lose if he intends to stay in office. He is forced to take the next step now.
– Putin says that this is not a bluff. What does he mean by that?– Putin makes it clear that he will not be afraid to use tactical nuclear weapons.
If he annexes the occupied territories of Ukraine through referendums, then according to Russian laws they become part of Russia. If Ukraine continues to try to recapture these territories back, it will defend them even with the help of nuclear weapons.
– Won't this turn into a pan-European fire?– Everything will depend on how the West reacts to the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
I do not see the danger of war in Europe at the moment. (An interesting caveat: neither Russia nor Ukraine is considered Europe by the German professor - approx. InoSMI.) Let's wait for how events will develop. I can imagine that Putin will first set a precedent and an explosion will be made over an unpopulated area.
Referendums are already at the end of September
The authorities of the Lugansk and Donetsk "people's republics" recognized by Moscow in the east of Ukraine, as well as the Kherson region in the south of the country, intend to launch a dubious procedure for joining the Russian Federation this week. This was reported to the administrations of these regions on Tuesday.
Pseudo-referendums, which will not be recognized by either Ukraine or the international community, should be held from September 23 to 27. Many consider them a reaction to the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east of the country.
Similarly, Russia annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which belongs to Ukraine, in 2014. The international community did not recognize the referendum in Crimea. And now no recognition is expected. The West reacted with sanctions. However, Russia constantly claims that the punitive measures of the EU and the West will not prevent it from achieving its goals in Ukraine.
The nuclear arsenal is on high alert
Putin has long ordered Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal to be put on high alert in order to deter NATO from any intervention in Ukraine.
The Russian political scientist I managed to contact believes that Putin, after the collapse of his initial plans for the rapid seizure of the Ukrainian regions, decided to hold referendums on their entry into the Russian Federation. According to the expert, after the annexation of these regions, he will be able to defend them by threatening to use atomic weapons. Thus, he significantly raised his stakes in this conflict.
In connection with the ongoing counteroffensive of Kiev, the separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk demanded to force "referendums". After all, since February 24, Russia has justified its actions with the desire to "liberate" the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, to stop the allegedly brutal bombing of these cities by the Ukrainian army. At the first stages, the Russian army managed to capture vast territories in the east and south of Ukraine.
However, recently the Kremlin has been suffering tangible defeats. Thus, Russian troops attacked by Ukrainian forces almost completely withdrew from the Kharkiv region. State propaganda started talking about a possible defeat. In response to this, the Russian military leadership constantly repeats that everything is going according to plan and all goals will be achieved.
