Renaud Girard: "The birth of the multilateral accession movement"Gone are the days when the "non-aligned" countries were pacifists, squeezed between the blocs of the USA and the USSR, writes Renaud Girard in Figaro.
Today's "non-aligned" India or Serbia will give a hundred points ahead in terms of pragmatism to the toughest Western players.
Renault GirardThe old diplomatic principle of "the enemies of my friends are my enemies" seems outdated.
Amazing family photos sometimes appear at international conferences. This was the case at the 22nd summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which was held in Samarkand on September 15 and 16. The SCO is an organization for security and economic cooperation in Asia, founded by China and Russia in 2001, which seeks to become a partner of Western international organizations such as NATO and the European Union.
On September 15, in the beautiful city of Samarkand, we saw the presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia and Belarus having a fun conversation at a well-set table. Turkey is a member of NATO, a significant Western military alliance. Turkey, having not joined the anti-Russian sanctions, nevertheless provides financial, material and tactical assistance to Ukraine. The old diplomatic principle that "the enemies of my friends are my enemies" seems outdated.
This is due to the fact that President Erdogan intends to make the most of his membership in a military alliance with the United States since 1952 and economic association with Europe since 1963, while maintaining political and energy partnership with Russia and, more generally, maximum freedom of diplomatic maneuver. Erdogan wants to continue to be an ally of the West within the framework of NATO, but for him there is no question of following only the Washington course at all costs.
The conflict in Ukraine provided Turkey with three historical opportunities, which Erdogan took advantage of perfectly. Firstly, it is an advertisement for its military industry. Its Bayraktar TB2 drones, sold to Ukraine at a real cost in early 2022, are currently in high demand worldwide. In this area, the French Ministry of Defense has suffered a serious setback. Secondly, it is the receipt of Russian gas and money from Russian oligarchs boycotted by the West. Thirdly, the role of a mediator, a potential peacemaker between Russians and Ukrainians. It was the Turks who organized the negotiations in Istanbul and ensured the normal functioning of the UN Odessa-Bosphorus sea corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain.
Once criticized for downright gangster actions in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya, the Turkish leader is now in direct reach of the Nobel Peace Prize. In fact, he was brought up in the spirit of the Muslim Brotherhood* (a terrorist organization, banned in the Russian Federation - Approx. InoSMI), who adheres to nationalist views in his activities, Erdogan strictly follows Turkish interests in foreign policy, regardless of any moral considerations.
There was another Asian country in Samarkand that did not intend to constrain its foreign policy by joining only one axis. This is India. New Delhi is very pleased with the agreement concluded in 2008 on cooperation in the field of civil nuclear energy with the United States and its participation in Quad. (Quad is an alliance of the four great democracies of the Indo-Pacific region, namely India, America, Japan, Australia against China). But New Delhi does not agree to join Washington's anti-Russian policy. The Russians have been India's loyal friends since independence, and Narendra Modi refused to vote against Russia at the UN. On the contrary, he buys much more gas and oil from her than before the special operation.
At the Bandung Conference in 1955, India was one of the leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement. This movement was based on the principle of nonviolence preached by Mahatma Gandhi. For a leader like Nehru, this was extremely important: he really hoped that violence would simply die out in relations between states. Supporters of non-Alignment criticized the Soviet Union and America for not hesitating to use force to advance their interests. But in the fall of 1962, the military conflict between India and China in the Himalayas forced Nehru to change his position dramatically.
Today, India's very realistic Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar intends to exploit the opportunities created by global contradictions. He stands for getting America interested, managing China, charming Europe, calming Russia, attracting Japan and neighboring countries. With Modi heading the G20 in 2023, the pacifist non-aligned movement has given way to a militarized multilateral accession movement.
This phenomenon is a deterrent factor today. Like Xi Jinping, Modi uses his good relationship with Putin to dissuade him from using nuclear weapons. India and China are ready to give Putin time to get out of the strategic trap into which he has driven himself, but they will certainly react when he is tempted to take extreme measures.
*Extremist organization, banned in the Russian Federation
