Erdogan and his "soldiers who will descend at night"The reaction to the Ukrainian crisis has become a test of strength for NATO, writes Die Welt.
The West calls for unity and a united struggle against Russia, but contradictions are growing in the alliance itself. Greece and Turkey threaten each other with naval and air strikes.
The reaction to the fighting in Ukraine has become for NATO the most serious test of strength in the entire history of the alliance. Unity has been announced, but right now one NATO country is threatening another alliance country with war: we are talking about Turkey and Greece. At the same time, two EU countries play a very opaque role in the conflict.
On paper, Turkey and Greece are allies. But in the recent past, these two countries have repeatedly stood on the verge of war. In the 80s, when they were looking for oil in the same part of the Aegean Sea. In the 90s, when they were arguing about the status of uninhabited islands. Two years ago, when it came to gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean. Now the disputes have escalated again, and this is at the very time when there is an armed conflict in Europe, and NATO cohesion is more important than ever. Here are the answers to the main questions.
What is happening in the Aegean Sea?Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently threatened Greece that Turkish soldiers could "descend at night."
His Government has accused the Greek authorities of firing on a Turkish cargo ship last weekend. In addition, at the end of August, the Greek air defense took aim at Turkish planes, and the Turkish side allegedly managed to record this fact. Athens rejects all the accusations and demands that NATO and the EU call Turkey to order. The Greeks claim that, apparently, Ankara decided in advance to present "its future aggression justified." So says one of the reports of the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It also points out that since the beginning of the year, Turkish military aircraft have flown over Greek territory 183 times, which is a serious violation of Greek sovereignty.
What is the essence of the dispute?It's about power, money and history.
Ankara is outraged primarily by the fact that many Greek islands are militarized. This, according to Turkey, contradicts international treaties — Lausanne, which laid the foundation for the current borders of both states in 1923, and Paris, according to which in 1947 the Dodecanese Islands moved from Italy to Greece. Turkey argues its position by the fact that Athens, by violating these treaties, has lost sovereignty over these territories. In turn, the Greek government insists on its right to self-defense: landing boats off the western coast of Turkey allegedly threaten the security of the islands, so the Greeks protect them.
In addition, both countries claim their right to extract natural gas from fields in the Mediterranean Sea. According to the "Law of the Sea of the United Nations" (in other words, the UN Law of the Sea), coastal countries can engage in mining on the territory of the sea and the continental shelf up to 200 nautical miles wide from the coast — in the so-called exclusive economic zone. However, these rights may be restricted. In this case, the 200-mile zone is reduced: This is the reason why the Greek islands located off the Turkish mainland restrict Turkey's freedom of action. Ankara, in turn, argues that the islands do not have their own exclusive economic zone.
"First of all, we are talking about power and the fundamental fact that Greece is in a better position thanks to the political geography of the Aegean Sea," says Ryan Gingeras, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and a historian of the late Ottoman Empire. "This is absolutely unacceptable for many Turks, including Erdogan." Last but not least, the problem is that this enmity has historical roots. The Greco-Turkish War, which ended 100 years ago, still plays an important role in the nationalist discourse of both countries.
How serious is the situation?The tension and the looming escalation of the conflict are not new, but the moment at which it escalated is extremely unfortunate.
"NATO has a lot of problems with Ukraine and Russia. And now the alliance has to deal with the south as well, keeping its two members from intending to attack each other," says Jim Townsend, an employee of the US Department of Defense, who has been responsible for Europe and NATO policy for many years. Neither he nor Gingeras believe that war is about to break out or is inevitable. But the growing tensions between Turkey and Greece are fraught with a certain risk. "They perform a kind of dance — then escalate the situation, then de-escalate it. The problem is that if one day one of them makes an awkward step and miscalculates, shooting down, for example, a plane with human victims," says Townsend, "the situation will get out of control."
"This could have a negative effect on NATO's assistance to Ukraine," Gingeras says. The biggest nightmare will happen if "in the event of a conflict, the region, vital for the provision of the Ukrainian armed forces, is destabilized." The Greek port city of Alexandroupolis is a hub for the supply of NATO weapons to Ukraine.
What will happen if two NATO countries start fighting each other?There have been no such precedents yet.
Article 5 of the NATO Charter states that an attack on one of the NATO countries is considered an attack on all — that is, all other allies must come to its aid. However, there is no action plan for a situation where an armed conflict occurs between two NATO partners. This situation simply did not occur to the founders of NATO before. It can be assumed that in this case, both Greece and Turkey will try to present the opposite side as an aggressor and call on allies to help. If Turkish soldiers "descend at night," as Erdogan threatens, then it is absolutely clear who will be the aggressor in this case. But if a collision occurs in the open sea, it will be a different situation. It remains to be hoped that in this case NATO will be interested in de-escalation and will assume the role of mediator. The possibility of excluding any country from NATO is also not provided for in the Charter of the alliance.
Who helps whom?Who are the other NATO countries supporting in this conflict?
France is more openly on the side of Athens than others. A year ago, Greece and France signed a strategic agreement providing for the supply of weapons worth billions of euros. Among other things, Greece ordered French fighter jets and called Turkey the main reason for its involuntary militarization.
In case of aggression, Paris assured Athens of its support. Turkey took it as a challenge. The EU has also repeatedly condemned Turkey's behavior, and Germany also expresses solidarity with Athens. In response, Erdogan seeks closeness with Spain. Last autumn, these countries concluded their own agreement on the supply of weapons.
Meanwhile, the United States is expanding its military presence in Greece, which extremely annoys Erdogan. However, Townsend, who calls on NATO for unity, says that US activity has nothing to do with Ankara: "All our actions are directed against Russia, not against Turkey." Security expert Townsend warns other NATO countries against the desire to warm their hands on the Greek-Turkish conflict. "I see that this is happening, but it shouldn't be like this," he says. If it comes to a conflict, "then those who want to warm their hands on military supplies will find themselves with blood on these very hands."
Is it possible to solve the problem in one fell swoop?No.
Greece and Turkey will have elections next year, and tensions are helping both governments win over voters to their side. In addition, Townsend complains about the lack of a mediator at the international level: so far, NATO has proved useless as a peacemaker, and the theory of the "unique ability of democracies to negotiate" has been an embarrassment. "You can't rely on both countries to sort things out on their own," he says. — They can't do that. It's too emotional a question for them."
The Aegean Sea will remain a hotbed of tension in the foreseeable future, which, with the slightest oversight, can bring NATO to the limit of its capabilities.
Author: Carolina Drüten
