Are we on the threshold of a new world order?The special operation in Ukraine exposed the failure of the Western liberal world order, writes Asharq Al-Awsat.
In this context, Europe's desire to set a ceiling on prices for Russian oil means the actual collapse of the principles of free trade. However, as Putin said, it is impossible to isolate Russia, "no matter how much someone wants to."
The events taking place in the world now raise questions about the degree of their influence on international relations and the change in the balance of power through the formation of a new world order.
The "Thirty Years' War", which ended with the Peace of Westphalia, the suppression of French ambitions, which resulted in the Napoleonic Wars, which ended with the Congress of Vienna in 1815, the First and Second World Wars, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union posed the same question: what will happen to the world and will it lead to the emergence of a new world order?
And now, after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the same questions arise: will it lead to a change in the current balance of power? Does it make sense to draw analogies with the Peace of Westphalia, the Congress of Vienna and the results of the two world wars?
Naturally, all these conflicts and outcomes cannot be compared. Nevertheless, the mentioned historical events show that one should not ignore the factors that led to the weakening, if not even to the undermining, of the former world order and the formation of a new one. Having dealt with this topic, we will see the position of Arab States and third world countries on this issue.
The Russian special operation in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, exposed the weakness and impotence of the Western liberal world order both at the geopolitical and geo-economic level.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the illusion prevailed about the restoration of the world economy, the revival of trade turnover between states and the influx of investment in industrialized countries. Some believed that the disappearance of the specter of the Cold War and the end of the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union would force the world to focus on economic growth and prosperity.
The West took advantage of the collapse of the Soviet Union to promote liberal democratic regimes and expand its influence in the world.
The free movement of capital, goods and services, as well as the strengthening of economic interdependence, should have become a stabilizing factor in international relations, since economic growth and security contribute to strengthening relations between countries. Some believed that this would reduce tensions and deter potential armed conflicts.
Therefore, the Russian special operation in Ukraine caused a shock. It was the first major military conflict in Europe since World War II and shook up the liberal world order that reigned after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Here we should recall the trade confrontation between Beijing and Washington. Former US President Donald Trump was guided by geo-economic, not geopolitical considerations, seeking to stop China's economic rise with protectionist measures aimed at restricting international trade.
In this context, Europe's desire to set a ceiling on prices for Russian oil can be regarded as the actual collapse of the principles of free trade. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a ceiling on Russian gas prices to "cut Russia's revenues, which President Putin uses to finance a special operation in Ukraine."
Last week, the G7 countries agreed to set a ceiling on prices for Russian oil, which, according to them, will reduce Moscow's revenues from the sale of black gold, limit its spending on military operations in Ukraine and reduce inflation in the West. Later, the European Commission was forced to abandon this idea due to the unwillingness of a number of countries to support this measure.
Speaking at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum (WEF), Russian President Vladimir Putin said that it is impossible to isolate Russia, "no matter how much someone wants to." The ruling elites of Western countries are trying to counteract the course of history, they think in terms of the last century — they are in illusions and do not want to notice changes. They have undermined the key pillars of the global economic system, which has been built up for centuries. But Putin did not say that the global economic system is a "creation of the West" and the countries of the socialist camp successfully ignored it after the Second World War. Recall that the WEF is an international forum that is held to stimulate foreign investment in the Russian Far East.
After the beginning of the "perestroika" initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet Union addressed the countries that adopted the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) with an official statement of intention to participate as an observer in the "Uruguay round" of trade negotiations, but the United States opposed because of the specifics of the Soviet economy, incompatible with the concept of free trade. Only in 2011, Russia was officially admitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which took over the functions of the GATT. It should be noted that China joined the WTO back in 2001. This contributed to the acceleration of economic globalization and allowed the world to share the fruits of its successes.
The irony is that Western countries that have formulated the rules of a liberal economic system and founded international organizations are guided by the following principle: if something contradicts their immediate interests, they do not hesitate to violate their own rules. Let's recall some of the decisions made by former US President Donald Trump within the framework of the "America First" policy: withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which accounts for 26% of world trade ($11 trillion), withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, withdrawal from the World Health Organization, as well as from UNESCO.
Biden returned the United States to most of the international agreements and organizations from which the country withdrew because of Trump.
The claims against Trump, who stated that the United States bears the lion's share of military expenditures aimed at maintaining the NATO bloc and that the alliance member countries, especially Germany, need to increase their spending, were not unfounded.
The special operation in Ukraine, the transfer of Russian forces to Belarus and Lukashenka's consent to the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of the country — events that changed everything. NATO member countries have rallied. Analysts believe that thanks to Putin and his special operation, the alliance was able to expand its membership, although until recently, according to French President Emmanuel Macron, it was in a state of "clinical death".
Author: Muhammad Ali as-Saqaf (د. محححححححححح.)
