Strengthening relations or Russian control? The history of Russian-Iranian rapprochement after the conflict in UkraineIn recent years, Iran has been actively engaged in strengthening relations with Russia, writes Sasapost.
The countries became even closer after the start of the special operation in Ukraine. But some Iranians are concerned that such "close cooperation" will develop into "control" of Tehran by Moscow.
"In the case of Ukraine, if you had not taken the initiative, the opposite side would have provoked the conflict on its own. If the road is open for NATO, then it sees no borders. If the alliance had not been stopped in Ukraine, then after a while it would have started a real war under another pretext," Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It took place within the framework of the summit, which was held in Tehran on July 19, 2022. This visit was the second foreign trip of the Russian leader after the start of the special operation in Ukraine.
The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as photos of the leaders smiling, although their countries are under pressure and regional isolation, became a clear signal of Moscow's support from Tehran.
Khamenei believes that "turning to the East" and expanding relations with eastern countries, including Russia and China, are the best solution to counter the "arrogance of the United States and the West."
Khamenei and his supporters are promoting the "turn to the East" policy, especially after the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian Nuclear Program (JCPOA) in 2015 and the re-introduction of economic sanctions against Tehran.
In recent years, the Iranian authorities have been actively engaged in strengthening relations with Russia. The countries have become even closer after the start of the special operation in Ukraine, but some Iranians continue to express dissatisfaction due to years of distrust of Moscow.
Is the Russian special operation in Ukraine a new opportunity for Iran?
It is impossible to ignore the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis and its impact on the world energy and food markets, as well as the emergence of many challenges and threats to various countries, including Iran. But at the same time, supporters of expanding relations with Moscow believe that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has a positive impact on Tehran's economy.
Iranian political analyst Mohsen Sadeghi said that the special operation in Ukraine is a "double-edged sword" for Tehran. Rising oil prices are a great opportunity for Iran to replace Russia, but at the same time, grain shortages and high food prices pose a serious threat to the country.
As for the question of the positive impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the export of Iranian oil, it is obvious that Tehran is not yet able to replace Russian energy carriers. He even had to compete with Moscow for Asian markets.
For example, in 2020, that is, at the height of the "maximum pressure" campaign conducted by the administration of former US President Donald Trump, Tehran exported about 300 thousand barrels of oil per day. This was reported by a source in the Iranian Oil Ministry, who wished to remain anonymous.
However, after the Democrats, led by Joe Biden, came to power, who repeatedly announced a return to the nuclear deal, Iran achieved small concessions regarding the export of black gold, albeit unofficial. In the first quarter of 2022, Tehran exported almost 900 thousand barrels of oil per day.
"China and India have always been the main buyers of Iranian oil, but after the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, sales fell sharply," said political analyst Mohsen Sadeghi.
After the start of the special operation, many tough sanctions were imposed on Moscow. In this regard, it offered fuel discounts to a number of Asian countries, which made it a direct competitor of Tehran.
A representative of the Iranian Oil Ministry, who wished to remain anonymous, said: "After the start of the special operation in Ukraine, sales of Iranian oil fell sharply, as Russia offered its energy resources at reduced prices. This has limited Tehran's access to major markets and customers."
According to reports, India, which is one of the largest buyers of Iranian oil, has imported more than 30 million barrels of Russian black gold in the last three months alone.
Isolation of Russia pushes countries to expand economic cooperation
Western sanctions have pushed Moscow and Tehran to expand economic cooperation.
"Unprecedented multilateral sanctions have put Russia in a situation familiar to Iran. Moscow has begun to get closer to Tehran in order to learn from its experience in avoiding Western sanctions and expand cooperation between them," Mohsen Sadeghi said.
On the other hand, the Iranian authorities saw Russia's economic and international isolation as an excellent opportunity to create an alliance against the United States, especially given the failure of attempts to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Advisor to the Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati believes that Tehran should develop cooperation with Russia in the current situation to create a kind of strategic balance.
"Now is a very good time to expand economic cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. Those who hope for the revival of the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions against Iran do not see the point in cooperating with Russia, especially after sanctions were also imposed on it. But experience says that sanctions will not be completely lifted from Iran, and if this happens, it will not be for long," says Iranian politician Maytam Abedini.
Expanding trade relations between Russia and Iran is the right policy. Strengthening economic ties with such a great power as Russia would help the Iranian authorities to neutralize the actions of American sanctions and open up many opportunities for the country's economy.
In recent months, Tehran and Moscow have been actively working to strengthen economic cooperation.
Russia and Iran have signed an agreement to create an analogue of the SWIFT interbank payment system, which will ensure fast and unhindered transactions between the countries and revive mutual settlements in national currencies.
They have also signed many agreements and memoranda of understanding aimed at expanding trade cooperation. According to Iranian Oil Minister Javad Oji, who is the co-chairman of the Permanent Russian-Iranian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation, the countries are striving to increase trade turnover to $ 40 billion. It is worth noting here that the trade turnover between Russia and Iran by the end of 2021 amounted to about four billion dollars.
In addition, the countries recently signed an agreement on the establishment of two shopping centers — in Tehran and St. Petersburg - to facilitate trade.
The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Russia's Gazprom have signed a memorandum on energy cooperation worth $40 billion. The agreement also involves the development of the Kish and North Pars gas fields.
It's not just about the economy, but also about expanding military cooperation
Cooperation between countries is not limited only to the economy. They have also taken many steps to strengthen military cooperation. According to the US President's national security adviser Jack Sullivan, Iran plans to provide Russia with several hundred unmanned aerial vehicles.
"The lifting of the arms embargo will facilitate military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. It is worth recalling that Russia has highly appreciated the Iranian drones, and repeatedly," Mohsen Sadeghi said.
But so far neither Russia nor Iran have confirmed the data on the sale of drones.
On August 9th, 2022, Moscow helped put an Iranian spy satellite into orbit. Tehran has also begun to actively cooperate with Russia in the field of space exploration to expand intelligence capabilities, which, according to Sadeghi, would not have happened without the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Among the achievements that Iran could achieve by expanding cooperation with Russia is the strengthening of its influence in the Middle East and Asian countries.
"Some believe that Moscow can use Tehran to threaten the United States and Europe with the creation of an anti-Western alliance. But for now, Iran is exclusively engaged in strengthening its influence in the region through cooperation with Russia," Sadeghi said.
The Iranian government is trying to convince Moscow to complete the project of the North—South international transport corridor, which is a network of rail, sea and road routes stretching seven thousand kilometers. It will run from the Indian port of Mumbai to Russia through the territory of Azerbaijan and Iran.
If this project is implemented, it will stimulate the flow of goods and investments to Iran. It will also help him abandon the United States and Europe and not worry about the consequences of sanctions.
By the way, in April 2022, the Minister of Transport and Urban Development of Iran signed a comprehensive agreement with the Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation on expanding cooperation in the field of transport, which could make a significant contribution to the completion of the North—South project.
But the question remains: has Tehran come under Russian control?
Every step to expand and strengthen ties with Moscow causes concern among the Iranian public about the fact that Tehran has come under Russian control. This was facilitated by the long-term distrust of Moscow's actions against Tehran.
Iranian analyst Mustafa Qasemi said in an interview with Sasapost: "One of the principles of the Islamic Republic is not to develop relations with parties in a state of military conflicts with any countries. But the Iranian leaders violated it by supporting the Russian special operation in Ukraine. This has led many to assume that Tehran wants to please Moscow at any cost."
"It is beneficial for Iran to cooperate with Russia. It has the right of veto in the UN Security Council, which gives it the opportunity to block any resolutions against Iran, and this is what our authorities want. But we must remember that in the past Russia voted for the adoption of sanctions against Iran, so it is an unreliable partner," Qasemi believes.
Tehran, he said, is not under Moscow's control, since the Iranian authorities are well aware of the history of Russian domination in Iran over the past two centuries. Although they violated their principle, they still preserved the independence of the Islamic Republic.
The Iranian authorities consider absurd rumors that Tehran is subordinate to Moscow. There are no Russian forces or military advisers on the territory of the country. And if Iran breaks off relations with Russia, it will not suffer as much from this as it did in the past.
Tehran sees Moscow as a partner and like-minded person, which is one of the most important reasons for their rapprochement, especially after the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. But the Iranian authorities are well aware that Russia's rapprochement with Iran is solely due to international isolation.
