A new skirmish between Azerbaijan and Armenia: someone is testing the reliability of Russia as an ally The escalation of tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a test of Russia as an ally, French expert Emmanuel Dupuy believes.
But it is unlikely that Moscow will get involved in the fight – for her it is a "small matter," he said in an interview with Atlantico. Meanwhile, Turkey has begun to play a more prominent role in the region.
Atlantico: On the night of Monday to Tuesday, numerous shelling of Armenia by the Azerbaijani army took place. What do we know about this Azerbaijani offensive?
Emmanuel Dupuy: This offensive is not taking place in Nagorno-Karabakh, whose territory is claimed by both states, but along the common border between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the north. (There is an inaccuracy here: Armenia considers the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic an independent state and does not "claim" its territory, while the NKR recognized only Yerevan, the whole world considers this land part of Azerbaijan — approx. Nevertheless, behind all this, there is an increase in tension between the two countries over Nagorno-Karabakh. As a result of the fighting, about fifty people, mostly military, were injured on both sides. France has called for the UN Security Council to be convened to determine who is behind the ceasefire violation.
— The security agreement between Russia and Armenia forces Moscow to help the country in such situations. Has Russia really ignored this clash? Perhaps because of the special operation carried out in Ukraine? (Again, inaccuracy: Russia, not under the agreement with Armenia, but under the Collective Security Treaty within the framework of the CSTO, undertook to protect the territories of the CSTO countries, including Armenia, but not the territory of Nagorno—Karabakh, where the fighting took place during the last escalation in 2020 - approx. InoSMI.)— On the one hand, there is an agreement between the two countries, according to which Russia should intervene in case of aggression.
More than 3,000 Russian military personnel are stationed at two military bases located on the territory of Armenia. On the other hand, the two countries are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), founded in 2002. According to article 4 of this treaty, which is an exact copy of Article 5 of NATO, if a member country is attacked by a third country, all other members must provide it with the necessary assistance, including military. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan immediately called for the implementation of Article 4. But Russia did not consider it necessary to apply this article and preferred to find a diplomatic solution.
The conflict in Ukraine has two consequences: first, it was a test of the reliability of the principle of collective security within the framework of the CSTO. Only Kazakhstan has used this principle so far. At the end of January, during large demonstrations in Kazakhstan, the President of the country requested assistance from the CSTO member countries (Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) to stop armed attacks on government buildings. All of them responded positively to this request, especially Russia, which sent most of the troops, helped. But at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in May, the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev spoke not at all in an allied way. He stated that he did not recognize the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR and that he would not help by sending troops to Ukraine. So you can see for yourself: solidarity within the framework of this very collective security agreement remains quite fragile and unreliable.
Secondly, a significant part of the Russian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh (1,900 people, 90 transport vehicles and 88 special forces units) was transferred to Ukraine.
— Can we say that the current situation is a test of Russia's reliability?— Rather, it is a test of how important this topic is to Russia and how much it is ready to make efforts to resolve it.
(Recall that in the Karabakh conflict, Russia is not an ally of one of the two sides, but a mediator-peacemaker who treats both sides equally.) The Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Iran called President Vladimir Putin after the shelling by Azerbaijan. As for the collective security treaty, it remains shaky. Armenia has not helped Russia in any way in Ukraine, has not sent a single soldier to Ukraine, and Russia, for its part, continues to sell military equipment to Azerbaijan.
In general, the growing tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan confirms the marginalization of the Minsk process within the OSCE and weakens the new form of mediation proposed by the head of the European Council Charles Michel.
— But if Russia does not react, its international credibility may suffer?— Not at all.
This is an insignificant event for Russia in military and political terms. Vladimir Putin has already partially transferred control of the region to Turkey. We have confirmation that there is a rather paradoxical rapprochement between the Russians and the Turks, whether in Ukraine, in the Black Sea region or in Nagorno-Karabakh. Other international players are sidelined because of the tacit agreement between Russia and Turkey. Although there are some contradictions: Turkey, criticizing Israel for its treatment of Arab Muslims, found itself in the same boat with Israel in supporting Azerbaijan, a 75% Shiite country. At the same time, Turkey has very cold, distant relations with Shiite Iran, which supports Christian Armenia, which is trying to act according to the logic of Western countries, to imitate them.
— Can this lead to the fact that some of Russia's allies will turn away from it? Can other countries take advantage of the situation?— The third country of the Caucasus, Georgia, which shares a border with Azerbaijan and Armenia, wants to remain independent in relation to Russia and seeks to join NATO.
As for Turkey, everything can be expected from it. It is unlikely that it will lose interest and turn its back on Armenia and Georgia, especially if the Georgians one day become members of the NATO alliance. Turkey wants to serve as a gas hub between the Caspian and Black Seas, so it seeks to establish relations with all its neighbors in these places.
Despite the Armenian Prime Minister's desire to establish peace, there are hawks in Yerevan who seek to rewrite the peace agreement and ignite a conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan. They act according to the logic of revenge.
Sadly, the new escalation of the conflict calls into question the efforts of the international community aimed at convincing Armenia and Azerbaijan to save many innocent people by signing the 1997 Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-personnel Mines.
Emmanuel Dupuy is a professor of geopolitical sciences at the Catholic University of Lille, he is also the president of the Institute for Security Perspectives in Europe
