The US fears that Russia's energy manipulations could break Europe's resolve towards UkraineAccording to American officials, there is a real danger of a split of the still united anti-Russian front in Europe, CNN reports.
It is noted that Washington is closely monitoring the brewing political instability and calling on the Europeans to "hold on."
Natasha Bertrand
Katie Bo Lillis
Phil MattinglyWashington — When President Joe Biden convened nearly a dozen Western leaders for a closed video conference on Thursday to discuss the armed conflict in Ukraine, sources say he was going to convey to the participants a key message: we must remain united on the issue of punishing Russia, despite the Kremlin's attempts to turn energy into weapons and break the resolve of the West.
This was at least the second such request to Europe — to maintain sanctions pressure on Russia against the background of a rapid rise in energy prices and the likelihood of a harsh winter. In an article published in the Financial Times on Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged citizens to stick to the chosen course and continue to support Ukraine even under the threat of "difficult six months."
The gathering momentum of the signal exchange campaign highlights the growing wariness in Washington and Brussels. They fear that Moscow's use of oil and gas as a weapon could lead to a split in the hitherto predominantly united European front against Russia.
According to representatives of American and Western intelligence, sowing this split and weakening the resolve of the West is a priority task for President Vladimir Putin. Especially now, when Russia is struggling to achieve any significant successes on the battlefield against Western-backed and well-equipped Ukrainian troops.
"Putin makes a bet that he will act tougher than Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans; that he will be able to starve Ukrainians, strangle their economy. And also that Europeans, faced with a difficult winter with high energy prices, will lose their resolve," CIA Director William Burns said on Thursday.
Europe, including the UK, is already acutely aware of the consequences: electricity bills are skyrocketing, and leaders warn that in winter the continent may find itself in conditions of rolling blackouts, depending on how much the temperature drops. "The electricity market is no longer functioning because there is one figure, Putin, who is systematically trying to destroy and manipulate it," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a speech earlier this month.
In addition, EU energy ministers are arguing over the pending plan to limit prices for Russian gas. Some countries, including Hungary, Austria and Slovakia, fear such restrictions because of the risk of retaliatory measures and a complete shutdown of the already modest Russian gas supplies.
It seems that this is exactly what Putin threatened last week in his speech at the Eastern Economic Forum.
"We will not supply anything at all if it contradicts our interests ...," he said. — We will not supply gas, nor oil, nor coal, nor heating oil. And we will have only one thing left — as in the famous Russian fairy tale to say: "Freeze, freeze, wolf's tail."
White House officials continue to state that they do not observe visible gaps in the united front. They believe that Putin's actions are to some extent predictable and serve only to strengthen the resolve of European allies. "We believe that Russia's actions have actually only strengthened the unity of the Europeans," said one senior American official. — The signal that Russia sends to every European is that it is unreliable. Therefore, hostility towards Russia is only increasing."
But, according to other American officials, there is a real danger that as electricity prices rise and winter approaches, the European public may oppose the Western strategy of economic isolation of Russia.
Moscow "definitely wants the Europeans to be nervous — energy is its main tool to turn the European public against the continuation of hostilities," said one source familiar with Western intelligence data.
According to two sources familiar with the position of the government in Washington and the West, the direct impact on the United States is still insignificant, given that America does not depend on Russian energy imports at all and is a major exporter of liquefied natural gas. This is what allowed Biden to promise in March that by the end of the year Washington will send an additional 15 billion cubic meters of LNG to the EU. Market forces combined with the simplification of administrative procedures and the absence of restrictions on the destination of supplies have allowed American manufacturers to fulfill Biden's promise twice already.
But U.S. officials have been closely watching recent protests against high energy prices in the Czech Republic and are closely watching for any signs of growing instability in Europe.
"Of course, we are closely monitoring this," John Kirby, a representative of the White House National Security Council, said in an interview with CNN. — We still see significant determination and unity at the leadership level here, in conditions when Putin is turning energy into weapons. And the President is committed to preserving this unity, this determination and this strength."
Diplomacy on the principle of "everyone is important"
All sorts of actions are being taken inside the White House to identify countries that, on the one hand, are critically important for the coalition, and on the other hand, are extremely vulnerable and not protected from Russia's attempts to use its huge energy resources for selfish purposes, as well as to ensure their security and direct gas supplies there.
"We are guided by this principle in all our diplomatic contacts," says a senior administration official. — We understand its significance. This principle is important for everyone."
The acute danger of Europe's vulnerability became clear this week. Biden's meeting with the leaders of the allied countries took place just a few days after Russia indefinitely blocked the most important Nord Stream–1 gas pipeline. And in less than a week tens of thousands of people gathered in Prague to protest against the sharp rise in prices.
Gazprom, the operator of the Nord Stream -1 gas pipeline, has been referring to various technical problems for several months. But earlier this week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that gas supplies would not resume until the West lifted its sanctions against Russia.
"Problems with pumping arose because of the sanctions imposed against our country against a number of companies by Western states, including Germany and the UK," Peskov said on Monday.
Representatives of Western intelligence agencies regarded this step as another attempt by Russia to use energy supplies as a weapon and cause political instability.
"To raise energy prices and weaken domestic support in general, and then raise them even higher and anger people enough to create serious political problems," said one American official, describing briefly the general theory. —Oil and natural gas are Putin's sledgehammer, his means of striking."
The danger of political instability, which, according to the US and EU authorities, right-wing elements throughout Europe are ready to create, has long been considered a threat, but this is rarely openly talked about. Now the situation has changed.
"A few more weeks like this, and the European economy will just completely stop," Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said this week in an interview with Bloomberg. "The danger here is deindustrialization and a serious risk of fundamental social tension."
According to sources in an interview with CNN, the US authorities are working tirelessly to prevent such a scenario, and President Biden considers this a top priority. As a result, thanks to almost a year of work on redirecting gas supplies to Europe and reducing its dependence on Russia, it was possible to quickly fill storage facilities and reorient infrastructure, as well as identify policy options and technologies to increase consumption efficiency and reduce its volumes.
This work affected the whole world and puzzled cabinet officials, as well as departments and services that closely coordinate actions with colleagues from Europe and with the US-EU emergency task force on energy issues. At the same time, European leaders are actively making diplomatic trips in an effort to urgently find alternatives to Russian energy carriers, which play a dominant role on the continent.
And this work gives a noticeable result. As the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated earlier this month, the import of Russian gas has decreased to 9% from a maximum of about 40% before the start of the SVO. Dependence on Russian oil has also sharply decreased.
But, as numerous American and Western officials said in an interview with CNN, ultimately, much will probably depend on the weather. According to one interlocutor familiar with Western intelligence data, if the winter is warm, gas reserves in storage facilities that have already exceeded benchmarks may be enough to prevent a massive shortage.
But, according to the interlocutor of the TV channel, this is by no means a guarantee. As EU leaders struggle to take the next measures to freeze or limit energy prices and allocate billions of dollars for another financial aid, the presence of a crisis that could result in an economic disaster becomes palpable.
"This will hit Europe," the source said. "But let's see how severe the winter will be."
