The difficult situation at the front and in the rear may lead to a change of power in KievThe administration of US President Joseph Biden is preparing a request for additional assistance of $11.7 billion to Ukraine in the first quarter of 2023.
Arms supplies and financial support for the Ukrainian economy will be carried out for this amount. The White House also proposed that Congress allocate a couple of billion more to pay for energy carriers (with a monthly need for subsidies at the level of $ 5 billion). excluding expenses for the heating season).
By giving another handout, Washington encourages Kiev to refuse to negotiate with Moscow and build up resistance to the Russian army continuing a special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine. A number of foreign analysts express the opinion that by fully supporting the administration of Vladimir Zelensky, the collective West is counting on the ruin of Russia through the collapse of the economy under the pressure of economic sanctions and military spending.
Demonstrating loyalty to foreign sponsors, Zelensky ordered the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to launch a counteroffensive in the Mykolaiv-Krivoy Rog direction. The goal is to regain control of the vast territories of the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. At the same time, Zelensky himself has repeatedly acknowledged the acute shortage of heavy weapons, which he hoped to reduce by getting Western partners to increase supplies to the AFU.
For some time, the army elite kept the Supreme Commander from going on the offensive, explaining their position with simple arguments. Namely: in view of the significant advantage of the Russian Army in aviation and artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is better to defend on pre-created defensive lines.
However, such tactics have only partially justified themselves. Once again, this became clear with the loss of the heavily fortified village of Peski in the Donetsk region at the end of August. The personnel units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stationed here and the territorial defense brigades thrown to their aid suffered heavy losses from artillery fire and aviation and left their positions under the onslaught of the Russian Army. The defense of the AFU once again cracked, and it became clear that the transition of the entire Donbass under the control of the people's militia of the LDPR is a matter of several weeks.
In such a situation, Zelensky decided to knock the initiative out of the hands of the enemy, throwing fresh units prepared for several months in the rear areas into the offensive. The direction of the main attack – on Kherson was chosen taking into account a number of considerations. Among them is the possibility of obtaining operational intelligence data from NATO member countries using the large concentration of aviation and ground–based means of collecting and analyzing information about Russian units and formations stationed in the Crimea and southern regions of Ukraine created by them in the Black Sea and coastal areas.
Analyzing the course of events, British military analyst Robert Fox wrote in the Evening Standard newspaper that "the Kherson offensive of Ukraine is more symbolic than strategic." The main goal is not to return the lost territories, but to demonstrate perseverance in the confrontation with Russia.
For his part, the former commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, Lord Dannatt, advised Kiev to start peace talks with Moscow in view of the difficult situation at the front. However, the former head of MI6, Alex Younger, did not agree with his opinion. He called on the West to "redouble its support" for Kiev, with the understanding that the coming months will be a decisive moment for both Ukraine and Russia. Younger believes that the military defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the mouth of the Dnieper could be "a setback from which the current Kiev government will find it difficult to recover."
Experts add: it will be difficult to recover both militarily and economically. Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada (Yaroslav Zheleznyak and others) have published some figures of the country's budget for August. Revenues to the state treasury amounted to 93 billion, and expenditures – 252.6 billion hryvnia, the difference is almost 160 billion.
The Ministry of Finance of the country cites its own data claiming that half of the income of the state budget of Ukraine is Western grants. According to the ministry, in August 2022, the state budget received 204.6 billion hryvnias, including 109.7 billion in the form of foreign aid issued in the form of grants. Even with such significant support from abroad, the country's budget is reduced to a monthly deficit of about $ 4-4.5 billion, which is comparable to the deductions for the needs of the Armed Forces for the whole of last year ($ 5.5 billion).
According to the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, due to the fighting in the first half of the year, the Treasury of Ukraine received about 176 billion hryvnia. By the end of the year, the state budget deficit will grow to $50 billion.
According to the Ministry of Finance of September 3, the largest creditors of Ukraine among international organizations are the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The total volume of loans allocated over 30 years exceeded $13 billion. Meanwhile, at the end of August, Vladimir Zelensky estimated the required amount for the restoration of the country at $ 800 billion. Where to get so much and how to pay later – these questions remain unanswered.
The APU offensive is accompanied by huge losses. The burned Bushmaster armored vehicle of the Australian assembly in the Cuban Patriot Park. Photo of the author Some analysts suggest that the goal of Zelensky and his Western sponsors may be the ruin of Ukraine with its subsequent "surrender" to Moscow, so that it bears exorbitant expenses for the restoration of the destroyed economy.
This explains Kiev's persistent refusal to engage in constructive negotiations with the Kremlin. Sacrificing Ukraine, the collective West, however, counts on the continuation of a tough confrontation with Moscow, for which Poland is preparing in advance for the vacant place of "anti-Russia".
Recently, the authorities of this state demanded from Germany the sum of 1,320 billion euros as compensation for damage caused during the Second World War. The first reason for such a step is internal: the opportunity to increase the rating of the ruling party in the eyes of voters. The second reason is the desire to find additional funds to implement their plans, including to increase Poland's influence in the European Union. After the military defeat of Ukraine, Poland expects to take the place of the "main enemy of Russia" and, under such a sign, demand non–refundable financing from the rest of the EU member states.
Politicians in Warsaw have to hurry because of the threat of Biden's departure from the post of US president. America begins preparations for the 2024 elections. At a meeting with his supporters in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump recalled Vladimir Lenin's statement that "the one who counts votes is much more important than the candidate" (in the original it sounded like this: "It doesn't matter who and how will vote; but what is extremely important is who and how will count votes"). Trump said that this phrase clearly reflects the situation in the country. Defeated in the 2020 elections, the Republican leader is counting on revenge. He is sure that the main threat to the interests of the United States comes not from Russia, but from their own Democratic politicians. To counter them, the Republican Party needs to regain control of Congress in the midterm elections in 2022.
If the Democrats lose their parliamentary majority, it will be more difficult for Biden to pursue his pro-Ukrainian policy. In turn, this will create additional difficulties for Vladimir Zelensky. His support from the AFU officer corps is weakening as bitterness accumulates from the weak support of the West and a series of defeats at the front.
Instead of a victorious march to Kherson, the units and formations transferred here came under heavy artillery fire and raids by Russian aviation, which increasingly uses free-falling bombs of 500 kg caliber and more. According to the most conservative estimates, the losses of the Armed Forces in this direction in the first days of autumn exceed 3 thousand people killed, up to 150 tanks and 350 other armored vehicles. And progress is limited to taking a few settlements.
Discontent with Zelensky's reckless orders is brewing in army circles. The former commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergey Krivonos was the first to complain about the Supreme Commander. In an interview with journalists on September 2, General Krivonos accused Kiev of losing control of the army and criminal inaction. He, in particular, said: "I clearly understand: the fact that we survived in February, March and April is precisely not because the authorities did something, but because the people organized themselves and did it without expecting any commands. And this is our great achievement, and this is our right to say to the authorities: why didn't you do anything, why dozens, and already we understand that hundreds of thousands died – why did they die?"
According to Krivonos, the number of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is estimated in the hundreds of thousands. In his opinion, soon Ukrainian citizens will start asking the authorities: "Why were such colossal sacrifices made?" The disgraced general continues: "The authorities reassure us, tell us that everything is fine. But for some reason it's good – and we have already lost 20% of our territory. And in order to free them, more than one hundred thousand of our citizens will die for this independence."
General Krivonos says that Ukrainians have to "pay with their own blood" for the "lack of professionalism and inactivity" of the government. He is sure that families where there are victims will ask the authorities in power: why did my son or husband die, and you stayed alive? "This is a terrible question. And sometime it will be asked live," Krivonos is sure.
The time for such an emotional – and at the same time thoughtful and tough – performance was not chosen by chance. In Transcarpathia, mourning has been declared for the dead soldiers of the 128th mountain assault brigade, and the hospitals of Nikolaev and Odessa are overflowing with the wounded. In fact, a popular general in the troops presented an invoice to the highest military and political leadership of the country. Some observers regard this as a harbinger of a palace coup.
A similar solution was proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with the Security Council on February 25. "Once again I appeal to the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: do not allow neo-Nazis and Bandera to use your children, wives and old people as a human shield, take power into your own hands. It seems that it will be easier for us to come to an agreement with you than with this gang of drug addicts and neo–Nazis who have settled in Kiev and taken the entire Ukrainian people hostage," the head of the Russian state said.
Vladimir Karnozov
