How can Russia bring the conflict to such an extent that it will go beyond the borders of UkraineThe United States and its allies should recognize that Russia poses a threat to the Indo-Pacific region, the author of the article in Asia Times believes.
Most of all, he is concerned about Russia's potential military intervention in the situation in Taiwan.
Seth CropseySix months later, it is possible to predict with relative certainty how the conflict in Ukraine will escalate.
However, Western observers may be mistaken about the direction of escalation.
Russia is demonstrating opportunities to create problems for the West in the Indo-Pacific region. And the United States and its allies must be on the alert to contain Russia's horizontal escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine and force Moscow to redirect resources from the ground war.
Despite the anxiety that prevailed before the conflict, the operation in Ukraine did not turn into a war of great powers. Russia periodically strikes Ukrainian settlements, the West makes claims, and the Kremlin complains about Ukrainian strikes on Crimea. At the same time, neither Moscow, nor the West, nor Kiev cross the red lines: there were no strikes on the territory of NATO, nor on the territory of Russia with long-range weapons.
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Those possible escalation options that the West was concerned about before the conflict began are no longer so relevant. But there are other areas of its expansion beyond Europe, and it is on them that the United States should focus in its planning. Russia makes it clear that it can put pressure on the US-backed coalition in the Indo-Pacific region.
Since February 24, it has become clear that the United States has serious problems with understanding Russia's strategy. It was assessed as a major land power that could take over NATO positions in the Baltic States and Ukraine in a few weeks. In addition, its economic opportunities were not taken seriously.
But the conflict has shown that both ideas about Russia are not entirely correct. Its military might is weakened, but it has used its economic opportunities, exacerbating the inflationary crisis in the West and undermining its morale.
Time will tell whether Russia can economically last longer than the West. The available data indicate that while the Western media is talking about the difficult economic situation in Europe, the Russian economy is close to collapse and has not yet collapsed only thanks to the organizational abilities of technocrats in the financial and economic sphere.
Despite this, Russia is at least trying to give opponents the impression that it will remain strong for a long time, and relies on the so-called strategy of "raw materials war" to suppress the will of the West.
Maritime threat
However, the West underestimates Russian naval power.
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The Russian Navy suffered fewer combat losses than any other instrument of hard power. In addition, before the conflict, Russia invested heavily in the modernization and strengthening of the fleet, restored the defense around the Kola Peninsula and improved it in the Sea of Okhotsk.
Given the damage inflicted on the Russian ground forces and the growing need for resources for operations in Ukraine, the Navy remains the most suitable tool for expanding influence by force. The Kremlin, of course, can put pressure on Europe. But as the date of Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO approaches, an attack in the far north becomes less expedient, and Kaliningrad is increasingly under threat.
Russia's capabilities in the Pacific are vast. And although they are more limited than in Europe, the Russian navy is a significant force, numbering about 40-odd surface ships and almost two dozen submarines.
Some forces may be in poor condition, but Russia has demonstrated the ability to deploy a significant part of them.
Rapprochement between Russia and China
Immediately before the operation in Ukraine, the Navy conducted exercises with the Navy of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA). In June, the Russian Pacific Fleet engaged about 40 warships in large-scale anti-submarine exercises. And last week, 14 Russian warships proceeded towards the Sea of Japan, probably in preparation for the annual major exercises "Vostok–2022", which are taking place this year in the Eastern Military District.
Russia admits that it is losing to NATO in Europe, but it has opportunities in the Indo-Pacific region. The American naval forces outnumber the Russian ones, but, like their allies, they are occupied by China.
The PLA conducted a series of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait after the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the island in early August. The longer the conflict in Ukraine continues, the more military resources of the United States and its allies will be spent on it, which may weaken their positions in the Indo-Pacific region.
Russia is unlikely to attack the US directly in Asia. But it can show force in different ways, and this can distract the attention of the United States. Its submarines may again begin patrolling the US coastline, as it already did in the Cold War. Moscow can use the capabilities of electronic warfare to jam or send false signals, or exhaust American forces in other ways. It can also monitor American and Japanese warships or enter Japanese territorial waters.
But most of all, Russia's intervention in Taiwan is worrying. The forces on both sides of the Strait are almost equal. This does not mean that China will quickly conquer Taiwan, it's just that the US will no longer be able to control the escalation in the event of a war in the region. Even limited cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, for example, the appearance of Russian submarines in the Philippine Sea or ships that will put Japan under pressure, can shift the balance of power in favor of China.
The United States should recognize what Russia is capable of and reflect on its intentions. The capabilities of the Russian Pacific Fleet and the frequent exercises with China indicate that pressure in the region may increase as the conflict in Ukraine drags on.
Divide and restrain
However, paradoxically, Russia's activity in the Indo-Pacific region gives the United States the opportunity to divide resources and undermine its combat power in Ukraine without a single blow.
As already mentioned, the Sea of Okhotsk is one of the two strategic bastions of Russia's defended maritime zones, in which submarines with ballistic missiles can remain out of enemy reach and at the same time perform deterrence tasks.
Moscow sends the bulk of the submarines equipped with ballistic missiles to the Northern Fleet, but at least four or five — as with all Russian naval resources, the figures vary - are part of the Pacific Fleet.
A series of large anti-submarine exercises involving American and Japanese warships and submarines with the support of aviation could jeopardize the fortifications in the Sea of Okhotsk.
Washington could even use one of its expeditionary strike groups in these exercises, simulating amphibious attacks on Russian positions on Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. So the United States will demonstrate the ability to exert pressure on the Russian means of a second nuclear strike. This will force Russia to transfer military forces to the Far East and reduce its combat power in Ukraine.
The threat to fortifications with Soviet submarines equipped with ballistic missiles, which were considered protected, helped distract Moscow in the last years of the Cold War. It could work now. We must be prepared for Russia's horizontal escalation outside Europe.
Seth Cropsey is the founder and president of the Yorktown Institute. Ex-officer of the US Navy and former assistant to the Deputy Secretary of the US Navy.
