Turkey continues to dominate the South Caucasus, strengthening its position every yearTurkey annually strengthens its position in the South Caucasus and already dominates the region, political analyst Alexander Zhilin told Iravunk.
In many ways, this is the result of Erdogan's thoughtful policy, but it's not just that, the expert believes.
Sarkis SargsyanThe interlocutor of the Iravunk media holding is a military expert, reserve colonel, political scientist, president of the Center for the Study of Applied Social Problems Alexander Ivanovich Zhilin
"Iravunk": Alexander Ivanovich! How do you see the scenario for the development of Russian-Turkish relations, including in the context of events in the South Caucasus?Alexander Zhilin: Turkey continues to dominate this space, annually strengthening its position.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, I must say bluntly, is a brilliant politician. He is pursuing his interests with NATO, the United States, and Russia. Moscow is so "tolerant" towards him that many are wondering: where is its national dignity? The downed plane, the ambassador killed, a special operation in the zone of Russian interests in Syria, anti-Russian statements on Crimea and not only. So what? And nothing, the Kremlin wipes itself every time. He builds a nuclear power plant for his hard-earned Turks, provides the Turkish gas stream, opened the market for agricultural products even to the detriment of his producers... because if Turkey closes the sea routes tomorrow, our group in Syria will be blockaded. You can, of course, blame the Turkish leader, but he behaves in relation to the Russian Federation exactly as the Kremlin allows.
– What do you think are the reasons for Armenia's defeat in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Who do you think can and should be held responsible? Has someone in Russia analyzed the results of the war, during which, conditionally, the Russian-style army was defeated by the Turkish army, and the army, conditionally, the NATO–style Azerbaijani army?– I would not raise the question that the Russian army was defeated.
Because she did not participate in the military conflict. My point of view is unequivocal: it was not the Armenian people who were defeated. Nikol Pashinyan and his team lost the war. More precisely, they surrendered, merged the interests of Armenia and its people in favor of their mercantile interests. I know that many Armenian brothers will attack me with criticism and curses. But this is my point of view, and I cannot be hypocritical about the Armenian people, whom I respect and love, therefore I speak honestly. It was a betrayal of the country and the people, whose representatives went to their deaths for the sake of preserving the living space of children and grandchildren. And they were betrayed by a bunch of politicians for the sake of keeping themselves in power, read - feeders. For whom was it a secret that Turkey would do what it did with the hands of official Baku? Or did Pashinyan not see how rapidly Ankara is arming the Azerbaijani army, sending its officers to its ranks, supplying drones, which, by the way, ensured victory? All this was in plain sight, but the political leadership of Armenia did not lift a finger to organize a confrontation. The tragedy of Armenia is that Baku has a powerful ally - Turkey, and Yerevan does not have such a serious partner. Betting on everyone, Yerevan was left alone. And the calculation of the Armenian elite that Russia, as the leader of the CSTO, together with other countries of this office will intervene, turned out to be a catastrophic mistake.
– The Azerbaijani military entered the zone of responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied several important heights in the area of the Lachin corridor, violating the conditions of the 6th paragraph of the trilateral Statement on a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, dated November 9, 2020. On the other hand, the Russian side reacts extremely painfully to any criticism of peacekeepers.– Yes, you are absolutely right.
We went in and took positions. And in response, silence. Why are there peacemakers! You will see how Moscow reacted and what consequences for Ankara followed after the assassination of the ambassador, the destroyed Russian military aircraft and pilot, Turkey's behavior in the zone of Russian interests in Syria, a very recent anti-Russian statement on Crimea... Erdogan didn't even get off with tomatoes. I got away with it.
– At one time, Russia actively criticized the international forces led by NATO KFOR (KFOR — "Forces for Kosovo"), for non-compliance with paragraphs of UN Security Council Resolution No. 1244 in Kosovo and Metohija, where the Serbian population was persecuted by bandits from the Kosovo Liberation Army.– Many people by inertia identify the current Russia with the USSR.
That great country is gone, and will never be again. Can you imagine that the Soviet Olympic team went to the Olympics without a flag, anthem, coat of arms, and the letters of the USSR on the athletes' chests were sealed with black tape under the sight of TV cameras of all world news agencies? And the word RUSSIA, sacred to us, was taped on the sweaters of our athletes. And silent. That's the colossal difference between the past and the present. And you are talking about the peacekeepers in Karabakh...
– In the Syunik region, Armenia lost the Black Lake and several combat positions towering over the Yerevan—Goris highway, the only transport artery connecting Artsakh with Armenia. And this is the area of responsibility of the CSTO. On the other hand, in the above-mentioned statement there is not a word about a certain "Zangezur corridor". All interested parties, first of all Iran, have expressed themselves quite clearly on this issue. The initiator of the ceasefire and the statement – Russia - practically does not speak out in any way.– In order to make statements that will be taken seriously, and not with ridicule, it is necessary to be a sovereign, economically powerful, technologically advanced country.
When China makes statements in its own interests, everyone is already pressing their ears. Because the PRC is a force that has not only a cumulative economy, but also an idea that subordinates the meaning of life. What is Russia's image of victory? Has someone clearly drawn the image of the future? There are no images - ugliness comes. Everywhere and above all in the heads...
I mean, the Armenian people need to get rid of illusions and rely on themselves more. Moreover, the Armenian diasporas around the world are so rich and politically influential that they are able to protect the interests of little Armenia without Russia and the CSTO. Why they don't do it is not a question for me.
– Is the scenario of the NKR joining the Russian Federation real?– This should not be decided by Russia in the first place, especially in the current situation.
Initiatives for rapprochement should come from the NKR and Armenia itself. We don't see it. Therefore, part of the Russian people have a feeling of the dependent position of the official Yerevan: Russians, come protect us and go fuck ourselves, we ourselves have moustaches...
