Is the world tired of the conflict in Ukraine?The West is not trying to stop the conflict in Ukraine, but is already beginning to get tired of it, writes The American Conservative.
According to the publication, the supply of military equipment to Ukraine from European countries is declining, trade with Russia is expanding, and countries are increasingly abstaining from voting on resolutions against Moscow.
Ted SnyderWestern countries are trying to move away from the belligerent position they took at the beginning of the military operation, but at the same time they do not seek to stop the conflict itself.
It would seem that the grain ships that have recently left Ukrainian ports refute the point of view of those who doubt the ability of Ukraine and Russia to negotiate and negotiate. But apart from a brief meeting between UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, there have been no recent diplomatic attempts to end this conflict.
Instead, the United States stubbornly and consistently opposes the negotiation process. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Zelensky not to conduct any negotiations with Russia. In the last days of his tenure as Prime Minister, Johnson repeated the call on August 24, saying that now is not the time to promote a "flimsy plan of negotiations" with Moscow.
On August 22, an article appeared in the Financial Times with the misleading headline "Russia rules out a peace deal aimed at ending the special operation in Ukraine." The Russian representative to the UN said that it is not Russia that excludes negotiations, but negotiations are excluded due to the lack of diplomatic efforts on the part of the West. "We have no contacts with Western delegations," Gennady Gatilov said. "Unfortunately, we just don't talk to each other." Since the UN is mired in "politicization," he added, "I don't see any possibility for diplomatic contacts right now." Gatilov does not rule out peace talks. He regrets that such negotiations are being taken into account, and states that "the UN should play a more prominent role in trying to stop the conflict."
Gatilov blamed the West, saying that the United States and its NATO allies are putting pressure on Ukraine, forcing it to abandon negotiations. These accusations were confirmed by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who complained that the positive talks in Istanbul had reached an impasse, since "after the meeting of NATO foreign ministers, there was an impression that there are people in the alliance countries who want to continue this crisis."
Although it seems to many that world leaders are not trying to stop the conflict, new evidence is emerging that the world is starting to get tired of it.
According to the Kiel Institute of World Economy, the supply of military equipment to Ukraine from European countries has been declining since April. In July, for the first time since the beginning of the military operation, the six largest European countries did not undertake any new military commitments. The Kiel Institute collected data on arms shipments from Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland. The Institute's aid tracking group for Ukraine reported: "The flow of new foreign aid to Ukraine dried up in July. No major EU country like Germany, France or Italy has made significant new commitments."
Arms supplies from Europe to Ukraine are declining, and its trade with Russia is expanding. It's no secret that Russian oil exports have suffered almost no losses due to the sanctions imposed on the initiative of the United States. China and India increased oil imports from Russia, and due to this, it compensated for its losses from Western sanctions. China has increased oil imports by 55%. And Russia today ranks second in terms of oil exports to India. Even Saudi Arabia has more than doubled its oil purchases in Russia. And Turkey meets almost half of its energy needs at the expense of Russian fuel.
Less is known about the fact that these same countries are reducing arms exports to Ukraine and increasing exports of their goods to Russia. Experts analyzed 39 countries, which accounted for 72% of Russian imports before the start of the special operation. When the sanctions began to take effect, exports to Russia decreased by 57%. But in April, when arms exports to Ukraine began to decline, exports of goods to Russia began to increase. By June, it had almost returned to the pre-war level, having increased by 47%. And here's a little secret for you. Most of this increase in exports to Russia was provided by countries, including European ones, which joined the sanctions.
This trend in trade continues. Chinese exports to Russia in July increased by 35% compared to June, exceeding the pre-war level. Turkey also increased exports to Russia by 40% compared to the pre-war volume.
Turkey does not just send goods to Russia. It strengthens ties not only in trade, but also in the tourism sector. This month, Erdogan and Putin held a meeting and agreed to increase ties in the field of energy, economy and other areas. Currently, Russia is helping Turkey to build the first nuclear power plant.
The fatigue of the world makes itself felt not only in the field of military supplies and trade, but also in diplomacy. After the first wave of condemnations of Russia for military actions in Ukraine, with which the UN spoke, there was much less criticism. Western diplomats have lost their offensive impulse and eased pressure on Russia.
It's not just that "it has become more difficult to find effective ways to punish Russia," as the director of the independent International Crisis Group put it Richard Gowan. Now "Western countries are avoiding concrete actions, fearing weak support," Reuters recently reported. Countries are increasingly abstaining from voting on such resolutions. As diplomats and observers say, there is "an increasing reluctance to publicly speak out against Moscow."
In June, the EU considered appointing a UN expert to investigate human rights violations in Russia. But then Brussels abandoned this idea, fearing that almost half of the UN Commission on Human Rights would oppose it. Even during the successful April vote to exclude Russia from the Human Rights Council, 47% of the voting countries voted against this resolution or abstained.
One senior Asian diplomat told Reuters that there was "no desire for further action while respecting the red lines." And a senior diplomat from Africa indignantly stated that "such a conflict is in fact encouraged by the West because of the desire to continue it indefinitely." According to him, Western countries supply weapons to Ukraine, but refuse to negotiate a cessation of hostilities.
The West is not trying to stop this conflict, but it is already beginning to get tired of it.
