The United States may be subject to terrorist attacks from AfghanistanThe liquidation of the CIA of Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's successor, as a result of a drone strike on July 31 of this year and the upcoming anniversary of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan gave rise to the appearance in the overseas press of experts' arguments about the results of ending America's twenty-year war and the terrorist threats emanating from Kabul.
WAS BIDEN RIGHT?James Cook, a professor at the US Naval War College, published an article on the website of the analytical publication The National Interest, "Will America be better off without Afghanistan?".
"While I agree with the sober assessment of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, that twenty years of efforts ended in a 'strategic failure,' I believe Biden did the right thing by ending United States military operations and not passing the decision on to his successor," writes Professor Cook.
He admits that instead of an orderly withdrawal of troops, the Biden administration made a number of catastrophic mistakes during a hasty surrender. The mistakes were the result of assumptions about the ability of the Afghan national security forces to repel the rapid seizure by the Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation) of territories throughout the country. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani just ran away from Kabul.
The Biden administration has been sharply criticized by a number of European leaders as an unreliable security partner that lacks the political will and strategic patience to fulfill its obligations. Some NATO allies have expressed concern about the unity and effectiveness of the Alliance in the future. The former secretary General of the alliance, Lord George Robertson, said that Biden's decision to unilaterally withdraw troops weakens NATO, since the principle of "entering together, leaving together" was not applied. The Wall Street Journal published an editorial "How Biden broke NATO", where he cited the opinions of European leaders who condemned the White House for the lack of consultations with them and assessed the damage caused to the bloc by the unilateral withdrawal of American troops.
"Underestimate the strategic impact of this criticism on both partners and opponents. But the Biden administration deserves credit for correctly matching the continued U.S. efforts in Afghanistan with other security challenges that affect America's national interests. These include strategic rivalry with other states, cyber threats, and an effective response to a global pandemic that has severely disrupted global supply chains and economic activity," writes Professor Cook.
Justifying his decision to withdraw troops, Joseph Biden said that the United States went to Afghanistan "not to rebuild this country." The US was going to "catch the terrorists who attacked us on September 11," bring justice to Osama bin Laden and "reduce the terrorist threat to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a base from which attacks can continue."
Cook believes that the Biden administration can take steps to mitigate the threat of terrorism in Afghanistan. The United States may increase pressure in connection with the destruction of Zawahiri and the Taliban's need for international financial support and international recognition. Recently, the US Agency for International Development (USAID, an organization recognized as undesirable in the Russian Federation) announced the allocation of $ 80 million for food security and the provision of provisions to Afghans.
By ordering the withdrawal of troops, Biden closed the chapter on America's military expansion in Afghanistan. And the upcoming anniversary gives time for lessons learned from the long war. Today, the attention of the White House should be focused on the current and future challenges of the United States.
SECURITY THREATSAlmost simultaneously with Professor Cook, another specialist, Director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Seth Jones announced on the same website that the terrorist threats of Afghanistan to America continue to grow. Failure to improve its position in the fight against militants exposes the United States and its partners to the risk of terrorist attacks.
Jones noted that after the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the Biden administration faces a difficult task. The recent destruction in Kabul of another leader of Al-Qaeda (banned in the Russian Federation) has hit America's main enemy. But the Taliban's close relations with Al-Qaeda militants and the transformation of Afghanistan into a haven for terrorists from different parts of the world forces the United States to reconsider its counter-terrorism strategy.
Afghanistan is now the only country in the world that has a close working relationship with Al–Qaeda. According to the UN Security Council, the leadership of Al-Qaeda plays an advisory role to the Taliban. Even the place where Zawahiri was killed – the safe house of an aide to Sirajuddin Haqqani, the interior minister of the Taliban government – highlights the closeness between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
According to the US Defense Intelligence Agency, Al-Qaeda has not yet been able to carry out terrorist attacks on US territory. But there are a number of disturbing events that US and Western officials should pay attention to.
First, Al-Qaeda and its local affiliate Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) continue to operate in Afghanistan. AQIS has up to 400 fighters. After the destruction of Zawahiri, the Taliban leaders, who were enraged by this American action, can give Al-Qaeda more room for maneuver.
Even before the CIA's punitive action, experts from the Central Command of the US Armed Forces reported that the Taliban would most likely ease restrictions on Al-Qaeda and give its militants greater freedom of movement, the opportunity to train and restore their potential for terrorist operations.
Secondly, Afghanistan is a location for many other terrorist groups, such as the "Islamic State – Khorasan province" (ISIL-K, banned in the Russian Federation). The US Department of Defense report says that ISIS-K "remains the main terrorist threat in Afghanistan, with about 2,000 militants operating in the country." Since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, a militant cell led by Sanaullah Ghafari (alias Shahab al-Muhajir) has carried out hundreds of attacks in the country. The goal of ISIS-K remains to use Afghanistan as a base for expanding its presence in the region and creating a pan-Islamic caliphate.
There are many other terrorist groups in Afghanistan, such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Jamaat Ansarullah (both banned in the Russian Federation). The TTP has from 3 to 4 thousand fighters in Afghanistan, which makes it one of the largest local terrorist groups. There are also more than a dozen anti-Taliban groups operating in the country.
Thirdly, the Taliban is unable to provide Afghanistan with goods and services. Due to the incompetence of the Taliban and international economic sanctions, Afghanistan's economy is in ruins. According to forecasts, by the end of 2022, the country's gross domestic product will decrease by 34% compared to 2020 (the last full year of Ashraf Ghani's rule). The humanitarian situation is also difficult: approximately 24.4 million Afghans, that is, 59% of the population, need assistance.
So, the situation in Afghanistan is alarming because of the Taliban's ties with Al-Qaeda, the spread of terrorist groups and the collapse of governance in Afghanistan. In these circumstances, the United States has left itself few options.
THE COLLAPSE OF INTELLIGENCEUnlike other U.S. counterterrorism operations after September 11, Washington has no partners on the ground in Afghanistan.
The US has worked with various forces in Iraq, with local militias in Libya, with the government, the African Union mission and clans in Somalia, with the "democratic forces" in Syria. But today the United States has no allies in Afghanistan.
America also has few intelligence capabilities in Afghanistan. The US closed its embassy and the CIA station when it withdrew its troops in August 2021. The US Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency (NSA) have lost most of their intelligence gathering capabilities.
Finally, the United States does not have military bases in the region to use aircraft for intelligence gathering or for strikes. The United States has withdrawn troops from all bases in Afghanistan. They have no bases in Central and South Asia. Instead, the Americans are forced to use the Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar, which is located 4 thousand km from Kabul.
The lack of partner forces, scant intelligence and the lack of bases seriously hamper the U.S. counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan. Therefore, according to Seth Jones, the United States should develop a powerful counter-terrorism structure that should act in two main directions.
First of all, it must work with local forces inside and outside Afghanistan. The Pentagon and the CIA have a long history of cooperation with local Afghan forces, including Hazara, Tajik, Uzbek and some Pashtun militias.
The main goal should not be to overthrow the Taliban, but to gather intelligence about terrorist networks in Afghanistan. Potential US partners – from supporters of the National Resistance Front to the Freedom Front of Afghanistan – will be able to provide information about terrorist leaders, training camps and other activities. There is deep opposition to the Taliban among the Pashtun tribes and smaller tribal formations that the US intelligence services could use to their advantage.
The second area of activity of the new counter-terrorism structure should be negotiations on bases in the region, especially for the organization of intelligence and surveillance. The United States should accelerate negotiations with Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and possibly India on the deployment of aircraft and drones to monitor Afghan territory.
The Biden administration has already started these discussions. But they are fraught with significant difficulties. Allowing American military or intelligence officers to fly strike planes is too politically risky for many governments. And Russia has already expressed categorical disagreement with the intention of the United States to create military bases in Central Asia.
The inability of the United States to improve its counterterrorism capabilities and positions by establishing relations with local partners in Afghanistan and negotiating additional bases, says Seth Jones, exposes the United States and Western countries to a significant risk of militant attacks. American intelligence agencies predict that Al-Qaeda and ISIS-K may create the necessary conditions for conducting their operations at the end of 2022 or during 2023. This reality makes the rapid creation of means and methods of countering militants an extremely important area of US anti-terrorist activity.
Vladimir Ivanov
Columnist of the Independent Military Review
