Military maneuvers of Russia and China: does the West need to fear an alliance between Putin and Xi?The growing military cooperation between Russia and China worries both the US and the EU, writes the German Tagesspiegel.
The very fact of the recent joint exercises of Russian and Chinese servicemen makes an impression. For Moscow, even the strain on Ukraine cannot obscure the Chinese theme.
The troops of Russia and China conducted joint exercises back in 2018. The current Vostok maneuvers are not so large-scale. Because many military units of Moscow are involved in Ukraine.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) will send troops to Russia for the joint military exercises "Vostok", which will begin on Tuesday and last a week. In 2021, the armed forces of both countries have already conducted joint maneuvers on land and at sea several times.
There is a growing fear in the West that these two superpowers will come closer politically, economically and militarily. What speaks in favor of this assumption and what is against? Four experts analyze what is happening.
What are Moscow's goals in seeking cooperation with China?
Stefan Meister is an expert on Russia at the German Foreign Policy Society:"Other states, including Belarus, India, Tajikistan and Mongolia, are taking part in these maneuvers under the leadership of Russia.
That is, this is not a bilateral action of Russia and China. It is important for Russia to demonstrate that it is not isolated and that it has military partners. And all this — despite Western sanctions because of Ukraine.
Since these are not the first joint maneuvers involving China, the ability of the two armies to act together is enhanced. But at the same time, we need to carefully look at what specific actions are being worked out, how many troops are actually taking part in the exercises. The question is also relevant: do these maneuvers primarily serve propaganda purposes? The Russian army performs really important actions without "partner countries". Certain military units and weapons systems do not take part in maneuvers with the so-called "allies of Russia".
According to official data, 300 thousand servicemen participated in Vostok-2018. But now, due to the fact that many Russian troops are involved in Ukraine, the maneuvers of 2022 will be much less large-scale."
Ulrike Franke is a security expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London.:"Russia pursues both practical and long-term geostrategic goals.
Against the background of the war in Ukraine, China's support is extremely important for Russia.
China created the framework conditions that made Russia's invasion of Ukraine possible. Shortly before the start of the war, both countries issued a statement where they assured each other of friendship. Since the beginning of the war, China has been spreading disinformation to please Russia, including the Russian narrative that NATO allegedly bears part of the responsibility for the war. Chinese firms cooperate with the Russian armed forces.
However, economic ties play a more important role than military support. Russia sees China as a trading partner whose importance for it is constantly increasing, especially in a situation where trade with the West is declining due to sanctions. In geostrategic terms, Russia wants to resist the primacy of the United States. Putin seeks to establish a multipolar world.
In weakening the West, China is the most important actor for Russia. However, the alliance with Beijing puts it in front of a special challenge, because in this China-Russia alliance, Russia is definitely a junior partner. It remains to be hoped that this is a fragile structure. Putin doesn't like her."
Helena Legarda analyzes Chinese defense policy at the Mercator Foundation Institute for China Studies:"Acting against the backdrop of Russia's increasing international isolation, the authorities in Moscow consider China as a key partner.
Since many Western markets are closed to Russia, it wants to increase exports to China and import from there high-tech products that it can no longer get in the West.
Russia wants to show that it is not isolated. Moreover, it intends to cooperate with Beijing to limit the global influence of the West — that's what Moscow wants to show."
Wolfgang Richter — retired colonel and military expert of the Foundation for Science and Politics:
"There have been problems in the history of relations between Russia and China. Today, Russia surpasses China only in the nuclear sphere, its conventional armed forces in Asia have greatly thinned.
China's global economic power is both a challenge and a chance for Moscow. Strategic partnership with Beijing reduces risks for Russia and opens up new spaces for action. By joint maneuvers on the northern border of China, conducted every four years, Moscow also demonstrates that it is not in international isolation. The participation of Indian troops in the exercises underlines this.
At the same time, the maneuvers indicate a commonality in risk assessment and make it difficult for potential partners to assess risks. Although there is no formal military alliance between China and Russia, they are united by the desire to replace the dominance of the United States and its allies in the international arena with a kind of "multipolar" order. Moscow also wants to show that, in addition to the ability to act in Ukraine, it still has significant military resources."
What are the goals of China's cooperation with Russia?
ELENA LEGARDA: "Beijing uses relations with Russia to achieve its own goals. They often coincide with the Russian ones. Like Moscow, Beijing sees the United States as the main enemy. He sees Russia as a useful partner when it comes to countering Western attempts to contain the rise of China. And also in cases when the creation of a new world order is being discussed.
Economically, China is taking advantage of the opportunity to use Russia's isolation to buy oil, gas and other goods from it cheaply. Joint maneuvers give the Chinese military, who have little combat experience, the opportunity to learn from their Russian colleagues.
In general, China is cautiously approaching cooperation with Russia. He does not want to further spoil his vital relations with the West, as this could endanger his own stability and strategic interests."
WOLFGANG RICHTER:"China fears instability in its northwest region and is looking for partners to fight separatism and terrorism.
It is in it, in the fight against the separatists, that the future point of application of China's strategic power is located. He must be confident in his ability to ensure the application of this power. And Beijing needs Moscow primarily as a strategic partner in global rivalry with the United States.
Mutual support allows both sides to act more freely at the regional level. But at the same time, China cannot openly support Russia's actions against Ukraine. For its economic recovery, China needs a world order based on the UN Charter. Even with regard to Taiwan, China acts in accordance with the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of UN-recognized states."
ULRIKE FRANKE:"China is acting extremely cautiously.
Although he has adopted many elements of Russian narratives, but in words he recognizes the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
From an economic point of view, China is interested in buying Russian raw materials cheaply. The country receives a double benefit from Western sanctions, which simultaneously harm both the European and American economies.
In principle, Beijing welcomes everything that weakens the West, occupies the United States and NATO and thus does not allow them to pay too much attention to China. In addition, China wants to show that there is an alternative to the Western world order. And that he has other partners."
STEFAN MEISTER:"China and Russia are jointly challenging the world order, where the United States is the main one, and are trying to reinforce their ideas of power and revisionist policy with military means — weapons and joint exercises.
At the same time, each of these two countries takes care not to be drawn into the conflict of the other. They use similar maneuvers and joint actions of their leaders to demonstrate the existence of an alliance between them. However, such an alliance is driven by their interests and has its own borders."
Should the West be afraid of this alliance and how should it react?
ULRIKE FRANKE: "If China and Russia conclude an alliance with each other, it will become a geostrategic challenge. However, it is unlikely that these two countries will form such a close alliance as, for example, NATO.
China does not want to limit its capabilities and is in no hurry to quarrel with Western countries, including European ones."
WOLFGANG RICHTER: "It is strategically unwise to promote the ‘struggle of democracies against autocracies'. It undermines the world order based on the principles of the UN, leads to the emergence of opposite poles and the confrontation of new antagonistic blocs.
The UN Charter proclaims the equal sovereignty of all States, regardless of their political systems. The idealistic picture of the world in black and white is far from reality, because it obscures the nuances and gray areas of political systems. This picture is difficult to trust, because it ranks authoritarian allies and partners in its own camp."
ELENA LEGARDA: "Sino-Russian relations are a challenge to Western states. China and Russia are mutually strengthening their positions and spreading ideas of a global order that undermine the rules-based world order.
Imported weapons from Russia help China in the rapid modernization of the army. The increasing coordination of Russia and China's actions in key areas, including their ability to wage hybrid wars and act together in the Arctic, is all cause for concern.
In addition, there is practically no prospect of driving a wedge between Beijing and Moscow. The West should focus on minimizing the impact of Sino-Russian cooperation on its interests and security, as well as influence the dynamics of this cooperation wherever possible."
STEFAN MEISTER: "The West should analyze what opportunities both states have created and how their cooperation in the field of defense, military construction and special services shifts the strategic balance in different regions.
This must also be done in relation to Taiwan, so that Western countries are not caught off guard again by the actions of Russia or its partner, as happened in the case of Ukraine."
Christoph von Marschall
