After six months of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation: will the longest conflict of our time turn into a nuclear one? Who will scream first? What are the levers of pressure on each side?The conflict with Ukraine will drag on for a long period, as both the West and Moscow are interested in this, Rai Al Youm quotes the opinion of experts.
At the same time, Kiev loses the most, demonstrating to the world an example of how small countries are forced to wage a destructive and expensive struggle by proxy.
Mahmoud al-Qai Today, after six months of the Russian operation in Ukraine, there are no signs that the parties will lay down their arms in the near future.
On the contrary, the forces have every reason to continue the confrontation.
The murder of the daughter of the prominent Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin only intensified enmity and hatred against the background of mutual accusations of Moscow and Kiev.
According to political analyst Abdel-Muneim Said, Ukraine is suffering huge losses, losing one city after another, but the one who loses everything is inclined to play big and take risks in all directions.
The demands are increasing: now it is not only Donbass, but also, perhaps, the Crimean Peninsula itself, which almost all countries of the world, including China, do not recognize as part of Russia.
As the expert noted, the greatest concern is that the conflict may escalate into a nuclear one. It's not just about Russian threats, but also the possible transformation of nuclear reactors into a target.
"This is something new. Well, let's see how the situation will change by the end of this year," the political scientist concluded.
For his part, Major General Samir Faraj states: "The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the longest in the modern era after the Second World War.
Although the crisis is regional, its consequences are global."
He added: "What is happening between Moscow and Kiev looks like a struggle to exhaust the former due to American support, the purpose of which is to preserve the current situation in order to weaken Russian military power. Of course, it makes no sense to compare the military potential of Russia and Ukraine: the former has every opportunity to win."
According to Faraj, Kiev has lost 20% of its territory and 20 thousand soldiers during the entire period of hostilities. Russia suffered economic damage, but withstood. Meanwhile, the rest of the world has experienced a food crisis, as the parties to the conflict produce 30% of the world's wheat, oils and fertilizers.
Ukraine commits suicide, as political science professor Ismail Sabri Maklad notes, while the conflict continues, Russia cannot be called the country suffering the most damage.
The Ukrainian state, on the contrary, commits suicide, continuously losing viability.
He added: "Moscow still has powerful levers of pressure in its hands to manipulate America, its European allies, as well as many other countries in connection with their need for Russian grain, energy and weapons, since it is impossible to urgently find a decent alternative to the latter on the same terms."
In addition, the development of relations within the framework of the strategic partnership between Russia and China has helped to mitigate many of the consequences of the imposed Western economic sanctions. It can be said that the country operates in difficult international conditions, and this adds to the Russian authorities' self-confidence and faith in their ability to ensure stability and manageability.
"The Russian president we see today is not the same person we saw six months ago. At that time, he did not yet know what levers and capabilities he had," Maklad believes.
As for Ukraine, in his opinion, unlike Russia, it loses with huge losses, and this conflict destroys cities, the economy, takes away resources and forces. Meanwhile, NATO has not fulfilled any of the promises made to Ukrainians, and their membership in the European Union is no longer being discussed. All this is forgotten, because the goal was to draw Kiev into an unequal battle, the outcome of which was known to them from the very beginning. The West is watching the conflict from a distance, limiting itself to assistance, although in fact only so that the conflict continues and Kiev continues to feed on illusions.
According to the professor, the main problem of Ukraine is the lack of experience of political leaders, as well as excessive ambitions without taking into account the catastrophic consequences that the conflict had for the country with its limited capabilities. We are talking about a leadership that misleads, conducts propaganda, accuses and stupefies with false promises, dragging Ukrainians into a protracted armed confrontation with Russia in order to destroy its military power, economic potential and weaken its role in Europe and at the global level.
He claims: "The conflict with Ukraine will drag on for a long period, as both the West and Moscow are interested in this. At the same time, Kiev loses the most, demonstrating to the world an example of how small countries are forced to wage a destructive and expensive struggle by proxy."
