Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Medvedev said that the special operation in Ukraine has one and a half scenarios for the development of the journalist of the British newspaper The Guardian Dan Sabbagh wrote an article about five scenarios for the possible development of events of Russia's military special operation in Ukraine.
He believes that the conflict can last at least a year, while Russia considers the upcoming winter "as an opportunity." At the same time, in his opinion, the future of Ukraine depends on Western supplies. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev called the journalist's article a lie.
"Winter will play into your hands"
According to Dan Sabbagh, Russia's military special operation "will last at least a year." At the same time, he is sure that it "has essentially reached a dead end, and its intensity is decreasing."
"Six months of the war have passed, but neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready to stop fighting, despite the losses suffered. Ukraine wants to return its occupied territories, the Kremlin believes that winter will play into its hands," the journalist wrote.
He noted that there were practically no negotiations between the two sides of the conflict. But, in his opinion, the advance of Russian and allied troops "after the fall of Lisichansk at the end of June was minimal."
"Both sides are fighting for momentum and increasingly seem exhausted in the battles," Sabbagh said.
"Partisan raids" The journalist wrote that "Ukraine does not have the means for an ordinary effective counterattack."
At the same time, Kiev organizes "guerrilla raids", which the author of the article considered "an optimistic way to accelerate the collapse of Russia."
"Ukraine would like to regain Kherson, located to the west of the Dnieper, but a senior administration official admitted privately that they "do not have enough opportunities to push them away." Kiev has changed its strategy to long-range missile strikes and daring special forces raids on Russian bases in the deep rear," Sabbagh explained.
He recalled that the adviser to the head of the president's office, Mikhail Podolyak, called the purpose of these actions "creating chaos within the Russian forces."
"But, although it will reduce the effectiveness (of the Armed Forces of Russia - "Newspaper.Ru"), it is unlikely that this will lead to the fact that (the Russian Armed Forces - "Newspaper.Ru") will fail and voluntarily surrender Kherson, as some Ukrainian officials hoped," the journalist believes.
Preserving the territories taken under control In his article, Sabbagh also suggested that Russia's attention "will probably switch to preserving its achievements" and the territories taken under control of Ukraine," although the Russian Federation "still wants to make its way forward."
"Russia has no new offensive plan, except to mass artillery and pave its way forward. It does this partly because it is effective, and partly in order to minimize casualties, having lost, according to some Western estimates, 15,000 people killed. Progress is slow, partly because Russia had to redeploy part of its forces to strengthen Kherson," he wrote.
He also believes that the Kremlin "may not have achieved what it hoped for in the beginning," but "now Russia owns large areas of Ukrainian territory in the east and south, and is actively talking about holding referendums."
The refugee crisis Mizabbag is confident that winter will intensify the refugee crisis and "create an opportunity for everyone who is best prepared."
"Winter is above all in strategic thinking for both sides. Ukraine is already concerned about humanitarian problems, because there is no gas heating in the Donetsk region and other frontline areas. One representative of a humanitarian organization predicted that there would be a new wave of migration in winter, and perhaps up to 2 million people would cross the border into Poland," the journalist suggested.
He added that "the Russians are considering winter as an opportunity." In Ukraine, they fear that Russia will "target its energy system", exacerbating the heating problem: for example, by shutting down the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. He also believes that Moscow may increase its pressure, as the West is experiencing the "pain" of energy prices continuing to rise.
"Spring, however, may be the time for a new attack - each side will want to restock and prepare for what is likely to be another fighting season," The Guardian journalist believes.
Dependence on supplies from the West, Sabbagh stressed that the West should decide whether it wants Ukraine to win or just hold on.
Depending on this, he needs to decide how much to satisfy Kiev's "huge need" for help.
"Ukraine would have been defeated without the military assistance of the West. But so far, the West has not provided enough artillery or other weapons, such as fighter jets, that would allow Kiev to push back (the Russian Armed Forces - "Gazeta.Ru»). Politicians (of the West - "Newspaper.Ru») they talk about the need to push Russia back to the pre-war borders, but they do not provide enough equipment for this," he wrote.
The journalist noted that Ukraine's need for humanitarian aid continues to grow. The country does not have enough money for reconstruction, many houses to the northeast and northwest of Kiev remain destroyed even five months after the withdrawal of Russian troops. Local residents are "desperate", "live in garages or temporary buildings."
"Internally displaced people often have to live in schools or kindergartens, temporary housing, in which it is difficult for people to stay for a long period of time. Ukraine has a budget deficit of $ 5 billion a month due to the war; aid and reconstruction will cost many times more," Sabbagh concluded.
"The third is not given" Deputy head of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev in his Telegram channel replied to a journalist of The Guardian that "forecasts of victory are being built in Kiev and in the Ukrainophile countries of the West."
And "in fact, all this is pure lies and demagoguery for processing the electorate."
"Everyone understands everything. But they work out the roles. There are only one and a half scenarios. The first is the achievement of all the goals of the SVO and the unequivocal recognition of its results in Kiev. The second is a military coup in Ukraine, and only then the recognition of the results of the special operation. That's all the options. Tertium non datur (Translated from Latin "The third is not given" - "Newspaper.Ru")," Medvedev wrote.
The day before, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, speaking at a meeting of defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, said that slowing down the pace of the offensive during the special operation in Ukraine is a conscious decision aimed at minimizing civilian casualties.
According to him, the Russian side strictly observes the norms of humanitarian law: strikes are carried out with precision weapons on the objects of the military infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: control points, airfields, warehouses, fortified areas, objects of the military-industrial complex.
"At the same time, everything is being done to avoid civilian casualties. Of course, this slows down the pace of the offensive, but we are doing this consciously," the minister said.
Maria Shustrova
