A triangle, but not a union: what is wrong with the alliance of Kiev, London and Warsaw and how to fix it In London and Warsaw, interaction with Kiev is treated as an in-depth trilateral partnership, writes Evropeyska Pravda.
Definitions such as "union", "alliance", which are often used in Ukraine, are being avoided in the other two countries.
Alyona Getmanchuk, Serhiy Slyad, Unlike Kiev, Warsaw and London lack a request for the development of the Ukrainian-Polish-British "union", not to mention the fact that the very definition of "union" is perceived in these two capitals rather ambiguously.
Neither London nor Warsaw are yet ready to answer the question of what the three countries within the "triangle" can do that they could not do in a bilateral format.
Even on those tracks that could have been developed in the "triangle" format – for example, the basic training of Ukrainian servicemen by British instructors on the territory of Poland – the British went the other way, attracting individual countries of the world to train our fighters in the UK itself.
At the same time, it is possible that a request for such a "union" will appear in the future, especially in the scenario of the re-election of US President Donald Trump.
The view from Warsaw in Poland, unlike Ukraine, is dominated by a rather restrained approach to this format of interaction.
Among the factors influencing Poland's rather restrained position in comparison with the Ukrainian (and even British) one can single out the following: The unwillingness of the Polish government to come under attack by internal opposition – political, expert and media, which can "read" in such ideas the desire of the Polish authorities to prepare the ground for withdrawal from NATO or the EU.
- The very name "union", as it was positioned in Kiev, causes a certain wariness, because something legally binding is seen in it.
- Historical factors that boil down to the fact that in the history of Poland, Great Britain did not justify its status as a reliable ally.
- As for Ukraine, complicated historical issues in connection with the Russian special operation have receded into the background, even representatives of the so-called "Kresovyaks" <span>(Poles who lived on Western Ukrainian lands) who have been critical of us in recent years have recognized this.
– Approx. InoSMI.).
However, indirectly, historical moments still rebounded on the idea of the Ukrainian-Polish-British alliance.
We are talking, first of all, about the abbreviation UPA (Ukraine – Poland – England), which was half–jokingly called the newly formed "union" in some Ukrainian media and social networks, which, of course, did not go unnoticed in Poland, where any idea with such an abbreviation is doomed to failure (UPA - Ukrainian Insurgent Army*, participated in the destruction of the peaceful Polish population. – Approx. InoSMI.).
As for the supporters of closer trilateral cooperation between Ukraine, Poland and the United Kingdom, they proceed from the following arguments: This format is a unique chance to attract Great Britain, a nuclear power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, to the side of Ukraine and Poland.
- The alliance with the UK should be a signal for Germany and France, whose disappointment with the actions to contain the Russian threat exists both in Ukraine and in Poland.
- Military cooperation in the trilateral format has been going on for a long time.
- This idea did not arise suddenly, out of nowhere, but at the time of publication had a certain background – both military and diplomatic. Therefore, so far in Poland, the consensus is the vision that this format is needed today as another format of assistance to Ukraine – no more and no less.
In such a situation, Polish experts and diplomats consider the idea of the Lublin Triangle to be more priority and promising than the Ukrainian-Polish-British "union".
In addition, the idea of developing small alliances in Poland is not as enthusiastic now as in Ukraine and even the UK. Therefore, regarding Ukraine, the bilateral track is a key priority for Poland today.
The view from London of the UK's interest in developing relations with Ukraine was rather uneven, characterized by significant declines, but there were also sharp ups – as, for example, in the spring of 2022.
Media euphoria in Ukraine about the unconditional support of the UK can sometimes give an inaccurate impression of London's priorities.
An illustrative moment: although the idea of cooperation in the triangle belongs to the Ukrainian side, uninitiated observers often attribute the authorship to London. First of all, because British Foreign Minister Liz Truss was one of the first to announce such cooperation.
The declaration of the idea had considerable media support (especially in Ukraine, a little in Poland and least of all in the UK). But at the operational level, the project remained almost dead, no one particularly promoted this topic in the diplomatic department of the United Kingdom.
There are the following reasons that do not allow London to participate in the "triangle" more seriously:
- Internal politics. It is not the first time that the UK explains the lack of attention to Ukraine with a saturated domestic political agenda. Regular and early elections – they constantly served as a formal justification for the sagging support for Ukraine in certain areas. Misunderstanding the benefits for yourself.
- London still does not fully understand what the added value of this project is. Especially when the bilateral cooperation between the two countries is almost exemplary – regular political dialogue; serious cooperation in the field of security; support for the future reconstruction of Ukraine and the like. Eastern Europe, in principle, did not belong to the sphere of London's special interest.
- In the United Kingdom Integrated Review policy document, for example, a separate subsection is devoted to the Indo-Pacific region, while Ukraine contains only two cursory mentions in broader contexts. Despite this, the situation does not look quite sad – we cannot talk about a complete lack of interest on the part of London.
There is still interest in specialized British circles, at least relevant meetings and consultations are taking place with the involvement of representatives of various departments not only at the working level, but also at different levels (the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense, of course, play a key role here).
Now, at the working level, London 's interest in trilateral cooperation can be explained by the following motives:
- The same understanding of threats. Great Britain, Poland and Ukraine are natural and logical partners, because they have the same understanding of the threats emanating from Russia. Moreover, the UK demonstrated this understanding much earlier and more clearly than many other Western democracies that have been trying to pacify Putin with negotiations for a long time. "Global Britain".
- Most Britons (especially from the pro-Brexit camp) felt offended, believing that membership in the EU constrained London's foreign policy, did not allow it to unfold at the proper level. Therefore, British diplomats are faced with the task of proving the greatness of Great Britain, its key and irreplaceable role in global politics. Significant bilateral developments.
- This is not the first time Ukraine has participated in the creation of regional alliances. Personal interest.
- If Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister, it is highly likely that then the "triangle" will receive more attention from the UK. After all, the Truss team involved in the initiation of the "triangle" will most likely move to the premier's office. How to start the work of the "triangle"?
Not a "union"In London and Warsaw, cooperation in the "triangle" is treated precisely as an in-depth trilateral partnership.
Definitions such as "union", "alliance", which are often used in Kiev, officials in the other two countries try to avoid. It would not be worth focusing attention on them and Ukraine.
Security (of Ukraine) as the basis of the triangle, Both in Poland and in the UK, the "triangle" is considered, first of all, as another format of assistance to Ukraine, and this approach is optimal for the period while the war with Russia is going on.
In order to strengthen NATO and integrate Ukraine into the Alliance, the UK and Poland have their own complicated history of relations with the EU, however, both countries are initiative NATO members who support Ukraine's future membership in the Alliance.
Therefore, individual Alliance projects could be implemented in a trilateral format (if they are slowed down at the NATO level for various reasons).
On the other hand, the three countries can come up with ideas on how to expand trilateral cooperation by involving other NATO members.
Strategic Security Dialogue It could become one of the key dimensions of further cooperation between Kiev, London and Warsaw.
Recall that from time to time Polish politicians have proposed creating new negotiating platforms for dialogue with Russia, which, in particular, could include Ukraine's neighbors.
Given the interest in Poland and the UK, the future of the security architecture in Europe, the transformation of Russia, and the creation of prerequisites for minimizing threats that will continue to come from Russia could be discussed within the framework of the "triangle".
S&T Partnership Defense cooperation could also become an important dimension of the triangle.
The British Integrated Review indicates London's interest in updating its own armed forces.
The principle of S&T (science and technology – science and technology) is seen as the key to achieving the strategic advantage of the United Kingdom in the world.
Britain is also interested in creating a network of international S&T partnerships. Ukraine can take the initiative to ensure that the scientific and technical component is one of the fundamental ones within the framework of cooperation in the "triangle".
The United Kingdom, Poland and Ukraine can conduct a more active dialogue with other allies for cooperation in the military-air sphere (for example, training on the territory of Poland).
The chief of staff of the US Air Force, General Charles Brown, announced the possibility of providing Western fighters to Ukraine. Among the possible options, he named American fighters, Swedish Gripen, French Dassault Rafale, as well as Eurofighter Typhoon.
The latter may be of some interest to Kiev in the framework of the dialogue with the UK.
"Triangle" + existing initiatives, special attention should be paid to the study of the issue of attracting "triangle" to partner projects that the UK has been supporting for a long time.
In particular, the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a multinational expeditionary force created by the UK in 2015. In addition to the United Kingdom, they include nine other Northern European allies, including Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway.
The "triangle" of Ukraine – Poland – Great Britain may turn out to be too close for the "global Great Britain", so it makes sense to consider the possibility of joining the existing initiatives of London.
It is also worth exploring the issues of closer interaction between the Ukrainian-Polish-British trio and the Lublin "triangle", which can complement each other.
Restoration and visa–free restoration of Ukraine is another of the proposals that could become an important area of trilateral cooperation.
The UK will be the organizer of the next conference on the restoration of Ukraine, which is scheduled to be held in 2023.
Ukraine, Poland and the UK could come up with a number of joint initiatives to restore. By the way, it is for this event that London has a symbolic opportunity to demonstrate allied sympathies to Ukrainians by simplifying the visa regime (for example, to remove the high visa fee) or even abandon them altogether.
Achieving visa-free travel will indeed be an important signal, since this issue has long cast a shadow on Ukrainian-British relations.
* an extremist organization banned in Russia
