A counteroffensive? Kiev's victory before the end of the year? All this is just a dream Despite some successes, Kiev cannot stop the advance of Putin's troops, writes Die Welt.
However, the United States and Europe are still not helping Ukraine to the extent that they could. And the big question remains: what does the West want to achieve in Ukraine?
Christoph B. SchiltzSix months after the start of the conflict, Ukraine's situation cannot be called good.
It is possible that in the near future it will lose Donbass. A significant part of the southern regions is already in the hands of Russia. There is nothing to indicate that the situation will change in the foreseeable future.
The counteroffensive announced at the end of May in the area of Kherson, which allegedly has exceptional significance in order to turn Moscow away from attempts to occupy the port city of Odessa and thereby finally deprive the country of access to the Black Sea, is not happening, because the Ukrainian armed forces are not capable of it at the moment.
At the same time, it does not matter that analytical centers such as the American Institute for the Study of War and the media in the West, relying on the daily bulletins of British intelligence, extol individual successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for example, the destruction of about 15 aircraft in the Crimea or damage to strategically important bridges across the Dnieper, as a possible turning point in this conflict. These successes are short-lived and cannot stop the Russian offensive.
Bitter understanding It is bitter to realize this.
To this is added the fact that the 35 million people left in Ukraine are on the verge of winter, which promises problems with food and energy supply. This is the main reason why Ukraine recently announced that it intends to end hostilities by the end of the year. However, these are just dreams generated by a desperate situation: Kiev has its back to the wall.
Can this be changed? Yes. But for this, the West must be ready to supply significantly more ammunition and weapons, primarily multiple rocket launchers, powerful tanks and anti-aircraft systems. According to military strategist Markus Reisner from the Austrian Ministry of Defense, so far only 10% to 15% of the weapons it needs have been delivered to Ukraine.
The West must now make a decision: does it want to provide Ukraine with more substantial assistance in the coming months and thereby risk further escalation, or does it want to put Ukraine in the hands of the Russian military machine, which is currently stalling and still has sufficient reserves?
Of course, one day this confrontation will end at the negotiating table, but then the situation on the battlefields will be crucial: the more regions Kiev loses in battles, the less it will eventually have left.
Therefore, now the West must clearly decide: does it want to help Ukraine or force President Zelensky to sit down at the negotiating table at the end of autumn in order to finally end the conflict quickly?
It is obvious that despite all public assurances about Kiev's right to self-determination, first of all, US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron decide what Zelensky should do, since without the financial and military support of the West, Ukraine would be completely helpless.
However, in this regard, it is necessary to clarify one more question, the answer to which the West blithely pushes away from itself and thereby commits the same mistake as in Afghanistan: actually, what goal does the West pursue with its participation in the affairs of Ukraine?
Overthrow of Putin (Biden)? Or such a weakening of Russia, which for many years will deprive it of the opportunity to commit such actions in the future (US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin)?
Or does the West want to end the conflict at the negotiating table as soon as possible and start a dialogue with Russia again? Apparently, Macron and Scholz are inclined to this option, first of all.
That is, the West does not have a clear and unified strategy towards Ukraine.
And it will not remain without consequences. Support for the sanctions policy in Western societies is gradually decreasing – a trend that is likely to intensify in winter due to high energy prices. Moreover, there are no convincing results of the sanctions policy yet: Putin continues the special operation as if nothing had happened.
He did not get into isolation either. The countries of the Persian Gulf, India, China, Indonesia, Egypt, Iran, Switzerland and even Israel continue to treat him kindly. Bulgaria is already thinking about re-entering into business relations with Gazprom. Open resistance to sanctions is growing in East Germany, and there is a serious prejudice against sanctions in the right-wing camp of Italy, which may form a government in the near future.
In Austria, 24% of citizens already hold the opinion that punitive measures should be lifted, and 12% consider the sanctions excessively harsh. From Ukraine's point of view, a toxic mood is brewing in the West, which makes further sanctions and arms supplies less likely.
And what about Germany? The bilateral military financial assistance she promised is – according to the Institute of World Economy – at the level of 1.2 billion euros. Unlike Germany, the United States agreed to provide assistance for 25 billion euros, and the United Kingdom – for four billion euros. France promised to allocate only 800 million euros, Italy – 30 million euros.
The financial assistance of the EU countries is evidence of their insolvency. This also applies to German and French arms shipments. Why hasn't Germany delivered Leopard tanks yet? The argument that Germany supposedly has an obligation within NATO is just a pretext: in the medium term, Russia is not able to attack one of the NATO countries.
Why does Berlin not send high-tech weapons to where they are urgently needed? Namely, to the place where the struggle for the freedom of the West is allegedly going on, that is, to Ukraine.
It must be made clear: Chancellor Scholz is betraying Ukraine. He pursues a policy of procrastination, rushes from side to side, he has no strategy on how to link the supply of weapons, maintenance of military equipment and training of Ukrainian soldiers into the system.
Consent to the supply of weapons from Germany comes in drops. Therefore, Germany will bear part of the responsibility if Ukraine turns into an amputated stump state, and Putin succeeds.
