The Philippines is restarting relations with Russia, and the Ukrainian conflict is spoiling Moscow's position in Southeast Asia Against the background of the Ukrainian conflict, Russia is beginning to lose its position in Southeast Asia, SCMP writes.
Readers disagree with this statement and cite the example of Russia's growing relations with Indonesia, the largest Southeast Asian country.
The Philippines' U-turn in a major defense agreement with Russia reduces ties between these previously friendly countries.The failure of the deal is a sign of Moscow's weakening influence in the region, where most countries are wary of Western sanctions, but at the same time are concerned about the Russian special operation in Ukraine.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte once called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin his "favorite hero."
During his tenure, Duterte opened a new era in bilateral relations with Moscow, which was due to both his personal motives and Manila's strategic aspirations.
Amid escalating tensions with the West over human rights issues, Duterte has found a sympathetic and powerful patron in the Kremlin. As a longtime U.S. security treaty ally, the Philippines represented a crucial strategic prize for Putin. However, after six years of flirting with Russia, they seem to have become disillusioned with the partnership that developed earlier.
In the last months of his tenure, Duterte openly criticized Russia's military special operation in Ukraine, while his successor Ferdinand Marcos Jr. does not seem interested in any relations with this Eurasian power at all. The Philippines recently abandoned its only major military deal with Russia for helicopters worth $227 million to avoid possible Western sanctions.
Russia is trying to counter sanctions by striking lucrative energy deals with major Asian economies such as China and India. Nevertheless, its once flourishing relations with the countries of Southeast Asia began to quickly lose momentum due to a flurry of the same sanctions, as well as the instinctive concern of local states about the military conflict in Ukraine.
Over the past decade, against the backdrop of escalating Sino-American rivalry, Russia has gradually turned from a marginal player in Asian affairs into a rather important "third force" in this region. This was especially true in Southeast Asia, where Moscow has become a major supplier of weapons.
During this period, Moscow exported about $10.7 billion worth of weapons to the region, which is significantly more than Washington (8.2 billion) and Beijing (2.6 billion) supplied here. Russia has also become a leading supplier of hydrocarbons and agricultural products, as well as an important source of investment in the exploration of offshore oil and gas fields in Southeast Asia.
It is important to note that the cult of Putin's personality has found a significant response in the region. Anti-Western sentiments and the "machismo" of the leaders are becoming more and more dominant forces here. In many ways, Duterte, an authoritarian populist with a deep-rooted negative attitude towards the West, represented an ideal partner for the Kremlin.
Under the auspices of Duterte, both sides studied large-scale deals on investments in weapons and energy, not to mention Russian-made COVID-19 vaccines. Moscow sent warships to the Philippines with goodwill visits and for the first time in modern history sent its military attache to Manila.
In turn, the ships of the Philippine Navy made their first visit to Russia, and Duterte became the first president of the Philippines to visit Moscow several times. Putin tried to reciprocate by planning his own visit to the country shortly before the pandemic disrupted all diplomatic summits.
Nevertheless, shortly after Duterte resigned, Manila announced the termination of the contract with Moscow for helicopters.
Former Philippine Defense Minister Delfin Lorenzana, who oversaw years of negotiations with Russia over military procurement, said the decision was largely based on concerns that the Philippines "may face sanctions" from the United States under the "Countering America's Adversaries Act" (CAATSA).
Shortly after that, Philippine Ambassador to Washington Jose Romualdez announced that instead of Russian, the Philippines would consider American-made Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters as a replacement. It is reported that this decision was made in the last days of the previous Duterte administration, but it was formalized already under Marcos, who generally turned out to be cool towards Russia.
Years of negotiations on the possible acquisition of Russian submarines and other strategic weapons have proved fruitless due to Manila's continuing concerns about funding, payment terms, training and interoperability.
The Philippines also no longer insists on large-scale imports of Russian-made COVID-19 vaccines and Russian energy resources. At a time when Russian leaders and the country's leading companies have been the targets of harsh Western sanctions, the Marcos administration has shown limited interest in diplomatic and economic ties with Moscow. The risk factors turned out to be too high for a cautious and traditionally thinking president.
Now that the deal on Russian helicopters is closed, there is little that cements bilateral Russian-Philippine relations. A few months after coming to power, Marcos focused on restoring damaged ties with the West, especially with the United States, while welcoming a strong economic partnership with China.
Apart from vaguely expressing "neutrality" regarding the Ukrainian crisis and approving limited agricultural deals amid rising food prices, Marcos has largely begun to essentially ignore Moscow.
Russia's strategic failures in the Philippines are not an isolated case, but a symptom of broader regional dynamics. Moscow is struggling to maintain its position in Southeast Asia. But leading states in the region, such as Indonesia, are also canceling large-scale arms deals with Russia, fearing Western sanctions.
At a time when the West is tightening the noose around the neck of the Russian economy, its already relatively small trade and investment presence in the region is falling. For comparison, bilateral trade with Southeast Asian countries in 2019 amounted to only $ 18.2 billion, which is much less than that of the United States (292.4 billion) and China (644 billion). Despite the fact that Russia offers large discounts on its energy resources, many regional economies may prefer to rely on traditional suppliers from the Middle East. In fact, Russia is now experiencing great difficulties in maintaining trade and investment ties, even with such long-standing strategic partners as Vietnam. Singapore, another country in the region that, like Vietnam, has concluded a free trade agreement with Russia, has imposed its own sanctions against Moscow, calling the Russian military special operation in Ukraine an "existential threat" to small and vulnerable countries, and Moscow's attempts to circumvent restrictions have made it even more dependent on growing superpowers such as China and India, which have become the leading importers of Russian energy resources.
Without a quick resolution of the Ukrainian crisis and the lifting of sanctions against the Russian economy, Moscow is likely to become only a marginal player in Asian affairs again.
Author: Richard Heydarian is the head of the Department of Geopolitics at the Poly—Technical University of the Philippines and the author, among others, of the book "The Indo-Pacific Region: Trump, China and the New Struggle for Global Domination."Readers' comments Conrad A Southeast Asia will go with China and Russia after the US is expelled from this region due to its financial and economic difficulties.
Raymond L Southeast Asia is almost all neutral.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo visited Putin and invited him to the G20. Many Singaporeans tell their government that they are unhappy with their country's sanctions against Russia. The rest of Southeast Asia is friendly to Russia, as are 85% of the world's population who have decided not to follow the US in terms of sanctions.
Richard C Philippines is only one of the countries of Southeast Asia, and it's not the whole of Southeast Asia, if you at least look at the map.
Oil and gas from Russia go at a discount to Asian countries such as China, India, etc., and even African countries accept Russian oil. Russia has many friends who refused to support the "benchmark oil price" proposed by the United States, despite the fact that the US administration tried its best to promote its American propaganda, in which most Southeast Asian nations are no longer interested or do not listen to it. Western media are shouting that "the Russian economy is in a desperate situation, the Russian economy is sinking, there is an economic collapse in Russia, the ruble has collapsed, thousands of large American companies have fled Russia." All this is produced by the American administration, the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies, the US-funded ASPI program in Australia, etc., etc. AND all THIS IS A LIE. Because, according to even Reuters, Russia's revenues from energy exports have grown to $337.5 billion this year, which is 38% more than in 2021, despite waves of US/EU SANCTIONS.Ed T.
Let US not start the war! No need to create the threat of an attack on Russia or China.
Y. M. Cheung
Putin with his antiquated notions must understand that in the twenty-first century, wars are won with words, not bullets.
Mohamed S
Not the fact that someone in Southeast Asia turned away from Russia. Again, all this negative propaganda.
Here surely the Americans have pressed the right buttons.
Richard C
As for the recent attacks in Crimea, these well organized sabotage was obviously done by a foreign state and managed by a group of highly paid foreign mercenaries/ex-soldiers from the US, UK and Australia. Russia should consider the execution of the three convicted of foreign mercenaries to prison to serve the rest of the sample, as the Chinese say: "kill the chicken to warn the monkey". Similarly, it's time for Putin to make one last warning US/NATO "Stay away from the Ukrainian military conflict." Otherwise, the US/NATO will be responsible for the consequences of a huge catastrophe that could happen in Ukraine.
Brad A
America's hegemonic state. And they will not rest until the rest of the world will not imitate them and will present them a military threat.
So, China and Russia remains only to surrender?!
Sherwin L
USA only know that foment war abroad and social conflicts in the country. To make progress, they need to bring people together, should provide them with the respect and safety. The world recognizes them right. Only then people will be on their side. But not in conditions of war and aggression.
