Anti-Western Georgia: As official Tbilisi goes into conflict with the US and the EU, the Georgian Dream considers the argument that the country should earn membership in the EU at the cost of a conflict with Russia to be untenable, writes Evropeyska Pravda.
The likelihood of a public break with the West is becoming clearer. And the ruling party is gradually preparing how to explain this step to society.
Yuri Panchenko The anti-Western sentiments of the Georgian authorities have been successfully contained for a long time.
First of all, due to the fact that such sentiments are not supported by society. And most importantly, Tbilisi was counting until the last moment on obtaining the status of a candidate for EU membership together with Ukraine and Moldova.
The EU's decision to provide Georgia with only a European perspective has removed the barrier to criticism of the West. Despite this, the rhetoric of the Georgian authorities remains nominally pro–Western - they promise to carry out all the necessary reforms by the end of the year in order to obtain candidate status.
However, in practice, a rollback from previously adopted reforms is more likely, which does not give grounds to expect a positive EU decision. At the same time, the Georgian authorities found a way to launch anti-Western propaganda, formally remaining not involved in it.
Reforms or their rollback?" In 2021, Georgia's level of compliance with declarations and decisions of the EU Council amounted to fifty-three percent, which looks like a regression compared to sixty-two percent in 2020.
And in the first half of 2022, this figure dropped to a minimum of forty–two percent," is a quote from the latest EU report on Georgia's implementation of the Association Agreement.
The report turned out to be more critical than ever. In particular, it notes that key reforms that the EU has been calling for for a long time, in particular judicial reform, as well as political (increasing the powers of the parliamentary opposition), "remain unfulfilled." "Reforms in the judicial system have stalled over the past year, and the situation in key industries has even worsened," the report says.
As always, the assessments of the Georgian authorities and the opposition regarding criticism from the West are diametrically opposed.
According to representatives of the ruling Georgian Dream party, these are technical remarks that do not affect the overall positive assessment of the reforms implemented by the current government. But in the ranks of the opposition, in this criticism they see hints that the government is not interested in implementing the reforms necessary to obtain candidate status.
Admittedly, there are more and more reasons to talk about such reluctance.
The latest scandalous initiative of the Georgian Dream concerns a return to the old mechanism for electing the head of the Central Election Commission, the change of which to a fundamentally new one was one of the key conditions of the "Charles Michel plan" – an action plan agreed last year with the help of the EU to overcome the political crisis.
The current mechanism provides that the chairman of the Central Election Commission is elected by two-thirds of the deputy votes. This means that such an appointment is possible only if a compromise is reached between the government and at least part of the opposition.
However, a gap was found in the Georgian Dream, with the help of which they could, as before, independently appoint the head of the Central Election Commission. We are talking about the possibility of a temporary appointment (not for six years, but only for six months) – for this, the candidate for this position is nominated by the president, and he is approved by a simple majority.
It was in this way last summer (on the eve of extremely important local elections) the head of the Central Election Commission was appointed, and subsequently he was approved again in the same way for the next six months.
However, the re-assignment unexpectedly ran into a problem. President Salome Zurabishvili unexpectedly submitted another candidate, explaining her move by the fact that although there are no complaints about the work of the current chairman of the Central Election Commission, but the next extension of powers under the temporary procedure is perceived ambiguously in society.
Such a step was extremely acutely perceived in the ruling party, announcing a return to the old mechanism of the election of the head of the CEC. This step, if implemented, can significantly aggravate the already difficult relations between official Tbilisi and the EU.
However, it is possible that at the last moment the Georgian Dream will decide not to completely destroy relations with the EU and will simply postpone the issue regarding the chairman of the Central Election Commission for a year. Next autumn, presidential elections will be held in parliament for the first time, which will give the Georgian Dream an opportunity to get a more loyal head of state.
However, it is unlikely that the Georgian authorities will be able to maintain the status quo for so long: to declare the Western path, refusing to take the necessary steps.
The final break with the West may be the imposition of sanctions against the founder of the Georgian Dream and the de facto most influential personality of the country, Bidzina Ivanishvili. Or an ultimatum to transport ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili to the EU for treatment.
The likelihood of a public break with the West is becoming clearer. And the ruling party is gradually preparing how to explain this step to society.
Anti-Western Vanguard A couple of months ago, three members of parliament left the ruling Georgian Dream party.
Soon, together with several municipal deputies, they announced the creation of the public movement "The Power of the People", which could become a separate party.
Usually, politicians leave the party as a sign of disagreement with its course. But this is definitely not the case.
The deputies who came out of the Georgian Dream explain their step by the need to better protect the party and Bidzina Ivanishvili personally. It is significant that one of these deputies, Sozar Subari, did not even remove the symbols of the "Georgian Dream" from the design of his pages on social networks.
But the new status gives members of the "People's Power" the opportunity to more sharply criticize those who, in their opinion, threaten the ruling party and its founder.
The first to come under this criticism was the US Ambassador to Georgia, Kelly Degnan.
"Over the past three years, the public has been watching attempts to change the government, and these actions were fully coordinated from the US Embassy. The main goal of this campaign was the coming to power of those people who would blindly subscribe to the conflict, no matter how destructive it was for Georgia," the new movement said in an open letter addressed to the American diplomat.
She is directly accused of trying to change power in the country by returning Mikhail Saakashvili's "National Movement". The latter, according to the authors of the letter, is ready to "open a second front in Georgia (against Russia), without thinking about the possible consequences."
Accusations against the United States and the EU in an effort to force Georgia to open a second front in the conflict with Russia are common rhetoric on the part of Georgian Dream deputies. Since the beginning of Russia's special operation in Ukraine, this argument has become one of the key arguments for the ruling party in criticizing the opposition.
However, the ruling party could not afford to accuse Western diplomats directly, especially with the use of such rhetoric.
Now this problem has been solved, and nominally the Georgian Dream is not responsible for the statements of former party members.
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Until recently, the anti-Western niche in Georgian politics was frankly marginal. It could not have been otherwise, despite the fact that the course of joining NATO and the EU has almost full support in Georgian society.
The Russian special operation in Ukraine was supposed to finally complete the collapse of pro-Russian projects. It is no coincidence that after the twenty-fourth of February in Georgia, the offices of those parties and social movements that supported the pro-Russian course were closed almost instantly.
However, a reversal in the policy of the "Georgian Dream" can significantly change this trend. The argument "we don't need EU membership at the cost of conflict" is now actively promoted in Georgian society.
Accordingly, there is already every reason to assume that anti-Western rhetoric will be much more widely present at the next parliamentary elections in Georgia than it has been so far.
And this will have corresponding electoral consequences.
