In relations between Russia and Kazakhstan, dots are being placed over the "e" In Sochi, Putin and Tokayev held talks, writes Exclusive.kz .
According to the author of the article, the "multi-vector policy" of Kazakhstan in the current geopolitical situation may go sideways for him.
Miras Nurmukhanbetov Does not need to be a great political scientist to conclude that the meeting of the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan last Friday did not bring the desired result for the Kremlin.
From the point of view of Akorda (residence of the head of Kazakhstan – approx. InoSMI.)– it's too early to say for sure. And in general, it was the most mysterious and unspoken conversation at the highest level in all 30 years of bilateral relations. Let's try to finish a little for them and crack the mystery of Sochi-2022.
A strange visit to meet Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Vladimir Putin on the territory of the latter, in theory, was supposed to dot the "I" in the relations between the two countries, but there was a strong opinion that these were actually dots over the "e".
Many, including Western observers, still remember the scandalous St. Petersburg Economic Forum, when Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich diplomatically did not recognize what the host of the event is currently conducting a military special operation for.
Many assumed that Putin would try to shake up the sediment left after Peter, they say, that's why he called the Kazakh president. In fact, something else is important for Moscow now – to make sure of Nur-Sultan's allied sentiments, but at the same time demand more – and, out of habit, from the position of "big brother".
This was the reason why Tokayev was met at Adler airport by regional officials, not representatives of the federal level. And the event itself was more like a reception of some governor. Unless Putin himself met and escorted the guest himself. It should be noted here that the final photo posted by the Kremlin's press service shows that the presidents are not too happy with the outcome of the negotiations. By the way, after saying goodbye, Tokayev went to the Sirius educational center for some reason, and purely reportage photos from there, as if by the way, demonstrated that the president of Kazakhstan does not feel safe in "friendly" Russia - only bodyguards are around Tokayev. The strangeness of the last visit was added by the fact that it became known about him literally on the eve of the trip.
At the same time, Akorda announced a visit to Sochi simultaneously with Tokayev's upcoming trip to Baku. By the way, much more and more details were told about why he would meet with Ilham Aliyev, what agreements the leaders of the two countries were going to sign, and what preceded it, than about the meeting in Bocharov Creek.
Meanwhile, nothing official was announced either during or after the meeting of the two "allies".
Therefore, the observers had to make do with what was said by the presidents during the formal exchange of friendly duty remarks, but some of them can and should be paid attention to.
So, the welcoming speech of Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich that he was glad to see Vladimir Vladimirovich in "good health" was perceived by many as a kind of mockery, although, I think, it is not worth seeing something conspiratorial in this. But the way the President of Kazakhstan diplomatically reminded that our "longest land border in the world" was demilitarized was a clear and direct hint that the "ally" would not even think of claiming our northern territories or something like that.
This aspect, by the way, was noticed by the Russian media, and some pro-Kremlin political scientists also began to promote it. But now all their thoughts have switched to the "cotton" in the jeep of the propagandist of the "Russian World" Alexander Dugin, which caused the death of his daughter Daria (she, by the way, followed in her father's footsteps). But this, as they say, is different.
"Therefore, there are certainly no grounds for expressing pessimistic forecasts regarding the future of our cooperation," he added very aptly (to the remark about delimitation) Tokayev. It remains unclear exactly what pessimistic forecasts he had in mind. Perhaps we are talking about a new wave of forecasts (already from foreign analysts) that Kazakhstan may become the next target after Ukraine, and regardless of the outcome of the "special military operation" – relative victory or freezing of the conflict.
His other words may prompt more optimistic expectations – that he, as president, "is determined to give additional dynamics to our bilateral cooperation in all spheres." Optimistic to a greater extent for the Kremlin, probably, although it must be assumed that almost all of Tokayev's statements were aimed at an internal audience. Attention is drawn to the slight reminder by the President of Kazakhstan that it was Putin who signed the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 2013. This is a call to be responsible for your words, saying that what is written with a pen cannot be cut down with an axe.
Checking the hours, we do not know (in general, no one knows, except for the negotiators themselves and a narrow circle in the Kremlin and Akorda) what Putin and Tokayev talked about for two and a half hours.
The guest's remark attracts attention, which needs to be quoted verbatim: "The specifics of the geopolitical situation suggests to us the need to check the clock in order, perhaps, to give additional instructions to governments. They work successfully, interact with each other. Nevertheless, life suggests new tasks, which, of course, need to be solved. In general, on the whole, there is every reason to be satisfied with the way our cooperation is developing."
This phrase probably does not need to be translated. In short, Tokayev repeated: We will continue to cooperate with Russia, but at the same time take into account the sanctions restrictions adopted by the international community. And in general, you need to say "rahmet" (thank you. – Approx. InoSMI.) for how Nur-Sultan is trying to help Moscow, and whether he will do it further (through the government) depends on the upcoming conversation.
After all, the indefinite "maybe", quite possibly, sounded for a reason. The Kremlin, as we noted above, needed something more. For example, Western political scientists have expressed the opinion that Putin intended to demand more direct support from Tokayev on Ukraine. Most likely, he would hardly have demanded help with weapons or troops, but he could quite speak out about the fact that Russia is now in conflict not with Ukraine, but with NATO and the collective West. And, apparently, he received a diplomatic and clear refusal. If Tokayev had even hinted that Nur-Sultan supports Moscow, the Russian media would have instantly spread and exaggerated this news. In general, the misunderstandings in the course of the proposed agreements were evident, although carefully hidden by both sides.
What's next?
If we talk about the consequences of "omissions", then they may manifest themselves in the very near future. At least, it is possible that something will happen again with the Kazakh CPC pipe. However, we have already passed all this and are internally ready. Therefore, something else should be expected. And here the spectrum is quite large, up to the active manifestation of the "fifth column" or collaborators in Kazakhstan, but with the subsequent reaction of the "northern neighbor".
But it's too early to talk about it with certainty. Again, we do not know what happened behind the closed doors of the Bocharov Creek, so if Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich managed to prove something to Vladimir Vladimirovich, then we can not expect a negative reaction. At least, artificial. As there were no special manifestations over the past weekend.
In this regard, it is interesting whether Putin will arrive in Astana for the CIS summit in October, and whether the two presidents will meet on the sidelines of another large interstate event – the SCO summit in Samarkand, scheduled for September. For example, at the end of June in Ashgabat, they did not talk separately (at least officially). Moscow is now actively looking for allies – recruiting new ones and convincing old ones.
The main message is to stand together against the West and NATO. In recent days, this has been heard directly from the lips of Patrushev and Shoigu, for example. However, it is not cost–effective to shake up the situation in Kazakhstan with provocations – too much is at stake - starting from the covert circumvention of sanctions for Russian enterprises (the Smailov government helps a lot in this, by the way) and ending with the purely subjective interests of Russians who travel to our country by the hundreds of thousands for what they lost after the start of the special operation in Ukraine. It seems that now Russia will have to adapt to Kazakhstan, and Putin will have to adapt to Tokayev.
Some details may appear in the next few days, when Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich will meet with Ilham Heydarovich in Baku. At the beginning of this week, Akorda is also expected to take other actions to find an alternative to the Russian path. But at the same time, another question is brewing and heating up: will something happen to our multi-vector nature? After all, in the current geopolitical situation, it can go sideways.
