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NATO's weak link has been found. The Alliance is in a hurry to strengthen it

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Image source: © AFP 2022 / MIHAI BARBU

NATO is in a hurry to stop the Russian threat where Europe has slack Since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine, six months have passed, and the question is ripe why the strengthening of the Black Sea region has only begun now, Bloomberg reports.

The authors of the article state that NATO has already significantly increased its presence at the eastern borders of the alliance.

Michael Winfrey, Andra TimuShortly after Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine, French Colonel Clement Torrent received an order: he has six months to build a base for a thousand soldiers at the eastern borders of NATO.

Today, he and 200 other servicemen from France, Belgium and the Netherlands are leveling a hilltop in Romanian Transylvania. "Our deadline is until the first frost," said Torran, head of the operational engineering group, from a base in Chinku, about 260 kilometers north of Bucharest. — This is a sign of solidarity. The presence of the alliance must be felt."

The Western powers are in a hurry to fight back against Putin's threat, and the fighting in Ukraine in its own way gave an answer to the burning question that has been haunting NATO for many years: will the old-timers of the alliance — the United States, France and Germany — stand up to defend the former communist allies if they are attacked?

But new ones have emerged: for example, has the alliance done enough to curb Russian expansion — after so many years of stingy investments and deafness to all warnings? And have proper efforts been made to strengthen the previously forgotten Black Sea region?

After six months of the Ukrainian conflict, NATO has focused on how to thwart Russian plans in the southeast of Europe and prevent one of the poorest regions of the continent from becoming its "soft underbelly" and Achilles heel.

The Black Sea separates Europe from Asia and washes the shores of Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and Georgia. This important trade route for agricultural products from Russia and Ukraine is connected to the Mediterranean Sea through the Turkish Bosphorus Strait.

According to Stratfor security analyst Matthew Orr, the southeast of Europe is a priority for Moscow. "The build—up of forces shows how much the Russians care about this region and how much they want to have a powerful military presence there — and NATO must respond to this," he said.

For many years, Eastern European leaders have warned that the Russian threat is growing: in 2008, Moscow attacked Georgia, and in 2014, Putin provoked a war in the Donbass and seized Crimea.

According to NATO representative Oana Lungescu, in response to the Russian actions, the alliance has strengthened its "defensive presence" on the eastern flank by transferring additional units, aircraft and ships there.

The Kremlin has also strengthened its military potential on the Black Sea: it has relocated ground forces to the theater, strengthened air defense and modernized the fleet. In addition, Russian activity has increased in nearby war zones, including Libya and Syria, where Moscow has a naval base. "The Black Sea for Russia is a gateway to warm seas, especially to the Mediterranean," said Julia Joja, director of the Black Sea Program at the Washington Institute for the Middle East.

"Through him, Russia can demonstrate power and flex its muscles in the Middle East, Africa and even further."

Just a few weeks after the start of the special operation on February 24, at a summit in Brussels, the alliance decided to create four new combat groups in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia — in addition to the already deployed cover forces in Poland and the Baltic States.

Romania, a country with a population of almost 19 million people and an almost 640-kilometer border with Ukraine, even before the conflict hosted a thousand-strong NATO contingent (mainly of American military personnel), and the Black Sea base in the municipality of Mikhail Kogalniceanu serves as a transit point to hot spots in the Middle East.

With the beginning of the Russian special operation, NATO allies have significantly increased their presence at the eastern borders of the alliance. Now it is planned to create garrisons in the remaining NATO border states, where thousands of troops will be stationed on a shift basis. In addition, the allies will determine which of the "home" units will support the advanced units on the eastern borders in a critical situation.

The Baltic States and Poland have been advocating for this additional presence for many years. Russia has threatened to respond, but has not yet taken any concrete action.

According to the senior military representative of France in Romania, Colonel Flavien Garrigou Grandchamp, thanks to cooperation with the host country and pre-placed arsenals of weapons, ammunition and heavy equipment, these forces will be able to increase to the size of a brigade of 5,000 people in just a few days.

"We are preparing to fight side by side with Romanians, Americans and other contingents," he said. "In the worst case, if it comes to that, we will fight."

Today, hundreds of thousands of military personnel are on high alert. In accordance with the decisions of the July summit in Madrid on the "overhaul" of the alliance, these parts will receive a formal status.

Although most senior leaders doubt that Russia will attack a NATO member directly, the alliance plans to leave international forces along its borders for "many years" until the situation stabilizes, Garrigu Gransham explained.

This will require investments, and Romania and its southern neighbor Bulgaria are sorely lacking.

The countries of the former socialist camp joined NATO in 2004, and three years later became part of the European Union. Today, they are still lagging behind richer partners in terms of welfare, and this hinders their efforts in all areas, from accepting refugees to helping Ukraine export grain.

"It's not just about defense, but about food security," Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuke said in an interview on August 2. "Therefore, all these decisions taken to strengthen deterrence and defense of the entire eastern flank are extremely welcome."

However, it was not easy for Torran and his team of army engineers to implement these decisions.

It turned out that the main bridge in the city of Cinque in the heart of Romania is in such a terrible condition that through the holes in the asphalt you can see the river flowing below. Trucks have to steer through sunflower fields to deliver tens of thousands of tons of building materials to the top of the hill.

In the whole of Romania, there are a little more than 950 kilometers of motorways, and according to this indicator per capita, it ranks last in the EU. The average salary in the commune of Chinku is only 3,500 lei (about 730 US dollars) per month, and in the surrounding towns and villages many people live by subsistence farming and receive benefits.

The mayor of Chinku, Aurel Sorin Suciu, is counting on Bucharest's help in the construction of roads, as well as on the EU project in support of the military base, which includes grants for the opening of canteens and housing.

"It's very difficult to change people's mentality and convince them to sell a couple of cows and renovate two rooms to earn more," Suchu complained from his office in the main Chinku Square.

Another, even more important area of investment is the strengthening of the Romanian armed forces. The majority of NATO members will not be able to reach the set level of the military budget of 2% of GDP. However, Romania fulfilled this goal back in 2015, and next year it will increase it to 2.5%: Bucharest will buy everything from armored personnel carriers and fighter jets to tanks and submarines.

The total military purchases will amount to at least 12 billion euros ($12.2 billion). The largest item of expenditure to date is the Patriot anti—aircraft missile battery worth 4 billion euros, which will be put into operation this year.

The base in Chinku under the leadership of the French should reach full capacity by the end of the year, as expected. This underlines not only the emphasis on the eastern flank of NATO, but also the general change of outlook: the entire alliance is tuning in to a confrontation with Russia.

"We are the closest French soldiers to the conflict zone," said Colonel Christophe Degand, commander of the advance group and the 8th Marine Parachute Regiment. — If a spark flashes and you have to transfer personnel, it's better to be on the spot."

The article was written with the participation of Natalia Drozdiak and Irina Vilcu

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