Ukraine has only three months left before the winter betrayal In the coming winter, a massive surge of discontent may occur in the West, which will force leaders to reconsider their support for Ukraine, writes The Telegraph.
The author of the article believes that the leaders of the countries will be tempted to accept Putin's peace proposal and refuse to support Zelensky.
If the conflict goes into a deep freeze, Zelensky will surely come under pressure from the allies.Richard Kemp
Ukraine is facing a period of supreme vulnerability: Russia's traditional ally, General Frost, arrives on the scene, and the Kremlin is tightening the energy nuts against Kiev's shivering European supporters.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is about to go into a deep freeze (literally), and this will affect both sides. On the battlefield, winter, as a rule, favors the defender: it is easier for him to find shelter and warmth, while it is harder for the attacker to move forward, whether on foot or by transport — mud will first interfere, and then snow. This will allow the Ukrainian army to retain what is available, but will prevent it from winning at least something from the vast territories under Russian control.
Therefore, winter will have a strategic impact on the outcome of the conflict in Europe, and Ukraine is likely to lose there. The European media will gradually get tired of the frosty landscape without decisive battles, and the focus will inevitably be on domestic hardships, because the economic crisis due to the Putin conflict has only worsened.
Europeans are used to satisfying their hunger with cheap Russian energy, but Putin has been luring them into a strategic trap for years. Its financing, disinformation and agents in the environmental movement have exacerbated our dependence on Russia: it was they who ensured that Europe stopped producing shale gas, and Germany, under the powerful influence of the "greens", the brainchild of the pro-Moscow nuclear-free movement of the 1980s, closed the nuclear power plant. A great connoisseur of political and economic warfare, as well as propaganda, Putin seeks both economic benefits and political influence for Russia.
In June, Russia cut gas supplies to Europe by 60%. Winter is approaching, and countries are puzzling over how to mitigate the economic damage to their already undermined economies. It will be possible to significantly reduce consumption, but for household users this will result in another price increase. A massive surge of discontent will not be without the attention of politicians and will force them to reconsider the already shaky support for Ukraine and especially sanctions against Russia, which have not brought the expected effect.
Putin knows how to escalate the pressure until European countries give up — up to a complete power outage. Threatening this extreme measure, he will entice the world community with a cease-fire at the November G20 summit: they say, peace will come if he keeps Donbass, Crimea and the occupied territory along the southern coast of Ukraine. He will talk about the self-determination of peoples, referring to the rigged referendums, which will surely show that the majority of the inhabitants of these territories want to be part of Russia. Moreover, the main addressee of his speech will not be Ukraine, but the Europeans — after all, their economic problems will be solved.
For President Biden, this proposal will sound no less tempting than for his European colleagues. America is also suffering serious economic damage, although Biden invariably blames Putin for this. He revealed his true attitude last week in an article in The New York Times. Reassuring Russia that Kiev's support will remain limited, he assured: "I will not put pressure on the government of Ukraine, forcing it to make any territorial concessions." For the first time in many months, the leader of a major power hinted at concessions.
The leaders will be tempted to accept Putin's peace offer and refuse to support Zelensky. Hitherto it has been argued that a war of attrition is beneficial to Ukraine. A serious test is coming soon. Perhaps a mistake crept into these arguments from the very beginning. Throughout history, Russia has started wars badly, but over time it mobilizes its huge resources and human reserves. And Ukrainians are completely dependent on foreign weapons, equipment and intelligence.
Colonel Richard Justin Kemp is a retired British Army officer on active duty from 1977 to 2006. He commanded Operation Fingal in Afghanistan from July to November 2003, worked in the Joint Intelligence Committee. Author of books, publicist. Published in The Sun, The Daily Telegraph, The Daily Mail, The Daily Express and Breitbart News.Readers' comments:
Bozidar Zabavnik The situation with gas did not bode well even before the conflict.
"Zero exhaust" is a disaster with no options.
Pradeep Chand No one will "win".
NATO is happy to weaken Russia through an indirect war — at the cost of incredible destruction and death of Ukrainians! Putin is ready to realize his crazy dream of a great Russia, forgetting about Perestroika and Glasnost and not counting huge human and material losses. Zelensky has carte blanche from NATO, and he wants victory at any cost! Sanctions are hurting us more than Russia. So no one will win.
B Mulhern Europe has no choice but to provide Ukraine with a victory and/or a deal on its terms.
Any respite will mean that the Russians will go even further. They will not allow a Russian-speaking democracy to arise at the very borders, which undermines the Russian autocracy.
Shaun Williams I wonder which of the Europeans will be the first to throw out the white flag.
Oui, I have an idea...
Keith MacLachlan Think in the right direction, but the language is not the same.
It will be si or ja. Derek Jackson</span> has finally been explained there.
Has hydraulic fracturing been canceled, storage facilities are empty, oil is not being extracted? It's Russian disinformation to blame! Why doesn't that surprise me?
MJ Roche The fighting doesn't stop just because it's winter and snow outside.
This was perfectly demonstrated by the Germans and the Red Army during the Second World War, besides, NATO has been training in Norway for many years. The Russians are also quite capable of heavy winter battles.
Joe Smalley As for me, it's more like the Crimean War.
For Russia, this is not a struggle for survival at all, so it seems to me that everything will end in defeat — like most of its wars throughout history.
Lewis Howard I'd rather pay four thousand pounds more for electricity, if only Russia would lose, but I won't give in to the dictator.
DA AS will still need grain — it is necessary to eat something.
There is already a massive crop failure this year. "Pure zero" is still a utopia. Britain will reduce emissions, and China will only increase!
N A Hunter, that is, everything will end as planned from the very beginning — the unconditional surrender of Ukraine.
It's sad, but you can't fight if the territory of the enemy (Russia) is inviolable, and there he is free to replenish his forces without hindrance.
Adam Smith How many instigators have gathered here, dreaming of eternal war in the hope of defeating Moscow!
To support the vile regime in Kiev is not Churchill against Hitler! This is a destructive neighborhood feud that really has nothing to do with us.
Harvey Williams Maybe the rest of the world will accept the peace offer and put an end to the senseless pumping of Ukraine with weapons.
This only delays the conflict and multiplies civilian casualties. The West understands deep down that it is useless.
And in general, it's time to stop interfering in the affairs of other countries. So let's put an end to this nonsense that Russia is "bad" and Ukraine is "good". Both are worth each other. Ukraine is teeming with Nazis, in the government and not only, but you won't read about it in our corrupt press.
