But Moscow did not use all its capabilities, the political elite of the West realized that the defeat of the Ukrainian regime means the end of the unipolar world.
Therefore, the West, led by the United States, is doing everything possible to prolong the military conflict, inflict maximum damage to Russia and ultimately achieve its defeat. Russia is facing a global challenge. We must clearly realize that any failure, any compromise, incomplete or half-achieved goals in a special operation (SVO) will have the most severe consequences for Russia, both geopolitical and economic. And they can become a prelude to a big war between the West and Russia for its resources. It is no exaggeration to state that the integrity and existence of Russia as a sovereign world power are at stake.
A DIRECT AND CLEAR THREAT, NATO countries led by the United States continue to increase supplies to Ukraine of all kinds of weapons and military equipment, including tanks, precision multiple launch rocket systems, artillery systems, and air defense systems.
In the coming months, deliveries of modern fighter and assault aircraft of Western production are planned.
Large-scale training of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is being conducted on the territory of Great Britain, Poland, Germany and other NATO countries. They are trained in the operation and use of modern types of weapons.
There is a recruitment of volunteer mercenaries and the involvement of private military companies for direct participation in hostilities against Russian troops.
The command posts and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fully and in real time provided with intelligence and target designation data from the NATO aerospace system. This can already be considered the direct participation of the North Atlantic Bloc in the war against the Russian Federation. The buildup of the military infrastructure and NATO groups in the territories adjacent to the state border of Russia continues, which creates an immediate threat of military aggression.
The image of Russia as an aggressor country and sponsor of terrorism is being actively formed and planted in the Western media. All this is reinforced by the introduction of new large-scale economic sanctions against Russia, which cause damage to it that is almost comparable to the damage after a military defeat.
The assessment and results of the five months of the SVO in Ukraine in the context of large-scale military assistance from the United States and NATO show that the goals of the special operation may not be achieved or achieved with "a lot of blood". Especially taking into account the limitations of the grouping and the slowing down of the pace of advance of Russian troops, the inevitable losses, the ferocity of the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
It is necessary to take into account the mobilization resources of Ukraine. According to various sources, Ukraine has already put more than a million people under arms. So the Ukrainian regime and its armed forces will be able to resist the Russian troops for a long time. And the longer the special operation lasts, the more Russia loses and the more the United States wins.
Today, the main obstacle to our victory, of course, is the West's increase in the volume of arms supplies to Ukraine. In order to win in a limited time and achieve our goals, we can no longer allow NATO countries to pump Ukraine with weapons.
WHAT IS NUCLEAR DETERRENCE There are different ways to solve this military-strategic problem.
According to the author, one of the possible real and inexpensive ways is for Russia to use the nuclear deterrence mechanism as soon as possible, with the help of which it is possible to force the West to refuse to help Ukraine.
Russia today has a huge nuclear potential consisting of strategic and non-strategic nuclear weapons.
In accordance with the START-3 Treaty (extended in January 2021 to February 2026), the Russian Federation has 510 deployed nuclear weapons carriers, 1,500 nuclear warheads and about 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers (the United States has 675, 1,457 and 800 units, respectively).
Taking into account non-strategic nuclear weapons, it can be stated with good reason that Russia today and in the foreseeable future will take a leading position in the world in terms of nuclear potential.
In Russian political science and military science, the nuclear deterrence mechanism is considered as "a system of coordinated (united by a common plan) measures and actions taken by state and military authorities, strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces in the interests of creating conditions and procedures for the implementation of phased, controlled and metered nuclear deterrence of potential nuclear and non-nuclear aggressors at various stages of the development of a military conflict and in various conditions of the military-political and military-strategic situation."
The main content of the nuclear deterrence mechanism consists of measures and actions aimed at resolute implementation of measures for nuclear deterrence of the enemy, as well as readiness to use nuclear weapons.
The official documents of the strategic planning of the Russian Federation in the field of national security provide for nuclear deterrence of potential adversaries. They state that nuclear deterrence is the most important function of the state and a specific sphere of activity of Russia's nuclear forces.
The main current regulatory legal document of the Russian Federation in this area – the Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence (approved by the President of the Russian Federation dated 02.06.2020, No. 355) – provides (see paragraph 4) that "the state policy of Russia in the field of nuclear deterrence ... guarantees the protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state, deterrence of a potential enemy from aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies, and in the event of a military conflict – prevention of escalation of hostilities and their termination on conditions acceptable to the Russian Federation and (or) its allies."
The document also emphasizes that the Russian Federation exercises nuclear deterrence primarily against States and military coalitions (blocs) that consider Russia as a potential enemy and possess nuclear weapons or a significant combat potential of general-purpose forces.
The calculations show that with the existing composition of strategic and non-strategic nuclear weapons, Russia can inflict nuclear defeat (with unacceptable damage) simultaneously on the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany and Japan.
It should be emphasized that the content of the actions taken within the framework of the nuclear deterrence mechanism is determined by a clear understanding of who and what aggressive actions we are deterring. At the same time, the scale and nature of nuclear deterrence measures should strictly correspond to the current military-political and operational-strategic situation, as well as the expected response of the enemy.
In order to stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine from Western countries, the following order of nuclear deterrence is proposed, which, according to the sequence and degree of impact, is divided into two stages: demonstration of nuclear power and nuclear deterrence.
The demonstration of nuclear power is the first and most important stage of deterring the enemy. It involves the implementation of a set of simultaneous and sequential measures and actions that convincingly warn the enemy (in this case, the States providing military assistance to Ukraine) about their readiness to use and determination to use nuclear weapons.
At the same time, it is advisable to direct the main efforts of nuclear deterrence against the states bordering Russia in the west: Poland, the Baltic states, Romania and Bulgaria. The most effective deterrence of Eastern European countries at this stage can be provided by non-strategic nuclear weapons (NNWS), for which the supply (loading) of nuclear weapons (NNWS) to general-purpose forces is carried out with extensive media coverage and official notification of the governments of these states.
The very fact of the presence of general-purpose forces equipped with non-strategic nuclear weapons on the borders with these States, as well as the readiness and determination to use them, can lead to the desired result for Russia.
NUCLEAR DETERRENCE If measures to demonstrate nuclear power have not achieved their goal, then it is necessary to move on to the next stage – nuclear deterrence.
Nuclear deterrence should begin with the deployment and occupation by forces (troops) with non-strategic nuclear weapons of combat areas with the possible implementation of selective single low-power nuclear explosions with "non-lethal" consequences (for example, in remote areas of the sea).
At this stage, a strict warning is issued to the governments of hostile states about the inadmissibility of military support for Ukraine. In the future, it is possible to inflict a limited-scale nuclear strike with the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons on a separate most important (sensitive) military facility, as a rule, which does not cause civilian casualties.
It should be emphasized that all Russian actions related to non-strategic nuclear weapons are carried out under the cover of strategic nuclear forces and warnings from the United States of America, Great Britain and France about catastrophic consequences for them when trying in any way to protect the countries against which Russia has launched a nuclear deterrent mechanism. The fear of crushing nuclear retaliation must be constantly present in the minds of the political ruling elite of the NATO nuclear powers.
The factor of force, including nuclear, has always been and remains decisive in international relations. It's time to act. The largest nuclear power has no right to defeat. History will not forgive us for this.
Vladimir Puchnin Vladimir Vasilyevich Puchnin – Doctor of Military Sciences, Professor, leading researcher of JSC "State Scientific Research Navigation and Hydrographic Institute".
