Who is winning in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?The West should resist Ukraine's attempts to replace the bitter truth with sweet fantasies, the author of TAC believes.
However, Washington is not interested in the real state of affairs, although further hostilities pose a threat to the United States.
Doug Bandow What is going on in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that has been going on for six months?
It's hard to say for sure. Moscow expected the notorious easy walk and failed the initial attack. Having repelled Russia's first offensive, Zelensky's government expanded its goals and wished to retake parts of Donbass captured by separatists with Russian support in 2014, as well as the Crimea annexed by Moscow.
However, in recent months, Russian forces in the Donbas have been slowly but surely moving forward and have occupied over a fifth of Ukrainian territory to date. At the same time, Ukraine and its supporters are threatening a counteroffensive against Moscow's allegedly exhausted forces. Reports about losses, the role of high-tech weapons sent to Ukraine and the future prospects of both sides are the most contradictory.
Both Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly lied for future gain — and will continue to lie. Of course, it is logical to mislead enemies in its own way. British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once remarked: "In war, the truth is so precious that it must always be accompanied by a bodyguard— a lie."
Alas, governments generally lie to their people — and Washington is no exception. Almost everything that the George W. Bush administration claimed to justify its disastrous invasion of Iraq turned out to be a lie. Previous administrations and their allies trumpeted fake atrocities to justify military interventions against Yugoslavia and Iraq. The Reagan administration made a number of unsubstantiated statements after the US shot down an Iranian airliner in the Persian Gulf in 1988. And the Johnson administration, with false statements about an alleged attack by North Vietnam on US forces, achieved the adoption of a resolution on the Gulf of Tonkin. This transfer of forces escalated into the Vietnam War and ultimately claimed the lives of 58,000 Americans.
For Ukraine, information is a separate battlefield. Little of what is said publicly can be taken at face value. Tales of heroism and unconfirmed data about Russian losses are one of the typical techniques of Kiev. In its own way, this is not surprising, but it is important that American politicians proceed from the real state of affairs, and not from the Kiev training manual.
Judging by the agreement between Washington and the European capitals, it is Kiev that decides how long it will fight and for what purposes — at the same time, nothing will be decided at the negotiations without Ukraine's participation, and Europe and the United States will provide Kiev with everything necessary.
But Washington is obliged to pursue its policy in the interests of the American people. These decisions should not be left to the mercy of someone else's government — but, alas, all too often it ends there. So, in the late 1980s, ethnic Albanians deftly dragged the United States into a guerrilla war in Kosovo - then still part of Serbia. In the 1990s, Americans of Eastern European descent accelerated the pernicious policy of NATO expansion to Russia's borders, violating numerous assurances given to Moscow. As President Joe Biden's recent trip to the Middle East proved, Democrats, like Republicans, are also not against Saudi Arabia and Israel determining American policy in the region.
Washington cannot afford to repeat this mistake in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Kiev has become a victim of unjustified aggression and deserves support. However, any US assistance should correspond to American interests — that is, it is up to American politicians to decide whether Ukraine's support meets national goals or not.
So, at the beginning of the war, Zelensky called on the United States to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. It would be tantamount to declaring war: shooting down Russian planes and destroying Russian air defense systems both in Ukraine and in Russia. (Moscow's forces attack and defend their aircraft both from the territory of Russia and from the territory of Ukraine).
It is significant that Kiev supported all types of American participation — up to Ukraine's admission to NATO. The only reason why Ukraine is not in the alliance now is because US officials have recognized that Kiev's status is unimportant for America's future, it is not among the vital interests and does not justify a potential war with a nuclear power in any way. Membership in NATO was promised to Kiev by the George W. Bush administration - against the wishes of almost all other allies — and this demonstrated that its wild recklessness is not limited to the invasion of Iraq. Subsequent administrations took a more responsible position.
Zelensky recently called on the United States to declare Russia a terrorist state, although Moscow does not commit any terrorist acts. It is a brutal aggressor, like Saudi Arabia, which, with the help of American—made weapons, destroyed, starved and plunged hundreds of thousands of Yemenis into poverty — much more than the number of victims in Ukraine. In addition, the President of Ukraine wants Europe to shut its doors to Russian tourists. This step will not help Kiev in any way, but it will isolate the Russian people even more and strengthen the power of the Putin government.
Washington must decide on the scale of its support and its ultimate goals. Kiev is free to set itself any tasks, but America and Europe are not obliged to support them at all. So, Zelensky recently said that if Moscow holds referendums on the annexation of the conquered territories, they and the West will refuse to conduct peace talks: "If the occupiers follow the path of pseudo-referendums, they will close all chances for negotiations with Ukraine and the free world, although at some point the Russian side will clearly need them." However, an endless proxy war for every inch of Ukrainian territory is by no means in the interests of the West.
Indeed, it is worth agreeing to this requirement, as Zelensky will demand even more. What if tomorrow he announces plans to invade Russia, annex St. Petersburg and seize Moscow in order to force Putin to make peace? What – then Washington and NATO will help with money and weapons to put this plan into practice?
America's main interest in Ukraine is to defend its independence and sovereignty. On the contrary, the allies are not interested in preventing the territorial losses of Kiev, not to mention the return of the lands lost in 2014. Although such a policy is quite desirable for Kiev, further hostilities pose a threat to America — their escalation threatens to cross the borders of NATO and lure the United States into a trap.
To decide on further policy, Washington officials need the most reliable information. Sympathy for Ukraine, even if justified, should not overshadow the realities of the conflict. So, the West has closed all sources at least somewhat sympathetic to Moscow. Twitter considered the pro-Russian posters propaganda and banned them. Although it is reckless to rely entirely on such sources, and the tilt of the entire information ecosystem towards Kiev is just as unreasonable.
However, the desire to know the truth is not enough for the United States and its allies. In a special report, CBS revealed a number of problems, because of which the bulk of the allied military aid did not reach the Ukrainian recipients, primarily bureaucracy and corruption. After a barrage of criticism, CBS removed this report (allegedly for "revision"), and the original video simply disappeared without explanation. The Ukrainian government was tearing up and throwing up, demanding an "internal investigation", as if American journalists were subordinate to Kiev.
The same fate befell Amnesty International, which in its report detailed how the Ukrainian military uses human shield tactics: "Ukrainian forces endangered civilians by creating bases and using weapons systems in residential areas, including schools and hospitals." There is no need to explain what this has led to: "This tactic violates international humanitarian law and endangers civilians, turning civilian objects into military targets. As a result of the subsequent Russian strikes on populated areas, civilians were killed and civilian infrastructure was damaged."
And again Kiev and its allies went on the offensive. The report was condemned by Zelensky himself. However, Amnesty sided with the speakers. Secretary General Agnes Callamard stated: "Ukrainian and Russian social networks are teeming with trolls. Today they all pounced on the Amnesty investigation. This is called military propaganda, disinformation. This will not affect our impartiality in any way and will not change the facts."
There are other reports of illegal actions of Ukraine and violations of international law — for example, that Kiev is dropping anti-personnel mines on the territory of Donbass controlled by Russia. This information has not been confirmed, and critics have stressed that this kind of misinformation in a pro-Kremlin pitch can reach a huge audience even without the direct participation of the state. However, Kiev records all those who criticize Ukraine or its allies as Russian puppets. (I myself got on such a list for a short time, but the next day I was mysteriously crossed out, and soon the whole report disappeared).
In any conflict, it is difficult to sort out mutual accusations. The energy with which Ukrainian propaganda is trying to hush up any questions about Kiev's actions is not surprising. However, the United States and its allies must resist Ukraine's attempts to substitute unpleasant facts with sweet fantasies. To protect the American people, Washington needs the most reliable information. It is ordinary Americans, not the Zelensky government, who are the main priority of the Biden administration.
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan.
