The Ukrainian conflict is not a struggle for freedom. Why does the West support the fighting in terms of fatigue from Ukraine
Shortages and high prices will affect everyone, regardless of the position on the conflict in Ukraine, Yahoo News Japan writes. Today, the issue of the effectiveness of sanctions is already being discussed in the world, and fatigue from Kiev is beginning to be felt in Europe, the author of the article claims.
Yoji Kameyama (Yoji Kameyama)
It is strange that the United States and NATO, which are not involved in the conflict, are preparing for protracted military action
More than five months have passed since the start of the military special operation in Ukraine. This is significantly more than the three months of war between the USSR and Finland in the period from 1939 to 1940, which reminds me of this conflict.
The stubborn resistance of Ukraine, as well as the successful supply of weapons from the United States, played a role in this. America and NATO are trying to prepare for protracted actions, assuming that the conflict will not end quickly.
Nevertheless, upon closer examination, it becomes clear that the United States and NATO are not direct participants in it. They only support Ukraine: they supply weapons and put pressure on Russia in the form of economic sanctions.
In this sense, it is strange that the US and NATO are preparing for a long-term struggle. Nevertheless, Kiev's support and sanctions against Moscow are associated with significant costs.
I am saying that Western countries are ready to pay for these costs in the long term. Of course, as a member of the Western world, Japan also bears these costs. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian crisis affects the entire world economy. It will not be possible to avoid shortages and high prices, regardless of whether you take someone's side or remain neutral.
Who are the anti-Russian sanctions hurting?
On the first of August, with the participation of the UN and Turkey, Russia and Ukraine resumed grain supplies from Odessa in accordance with the relevant agreement. <...>
During the discussion, it was decided that the mines installed by the Ukrainian military in Odessa and other export ports will be defused. This is good for the Russian side.
In addition, restrictions affecting the export of not only Ukrainian, but also Russian grain, as well as fertilizers, will be lifted. Despite Moscow's benefits, it will also have a positive impact on global food security. Russia and Belarus account for 15% of the global chemical fertilizers market.
In addition to grain, another serious problem is the supply of Russian gas, an important source of energy for Europe. The fact is that due to the inspection and repair of turbines on the Nord Stream gas pipeline, which goes from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, pumping volumes have decreased.
Through negotiations on the settlement of the situation, Moscow is trying to make a hole in Western sanctions. She took advantage of the fact that the strengthening of restrictions has a negative impact on Europe and other countries of the world. Since the situation around Ukraine is not improving, the question of whether sanctions against Russia are really beneficial is being discussed.
Fatigue from Ukraine is spreading
Moreover, fatigue from Ukraine is beginning to manifest itself in Europe. It didn't start now. Such sentiments have been observed for eight years since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the beginning of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, culminating in the current special operation.
Although its beginning has raised the degree of support for Kiev again, the economic, social and international political turmoil associated with the conflict has increased the sense of uncertainty about the future.
Meanwhile, fatigue from Ukraine or a decline in enthusiasm does not necessarily have a bad effect on the situation, since this crisis is the result of a complex combination of deeply rooted historical and political factors since the end of the Cold War. In this situation, momentary enthusiasm is inappropriate.
This is a turning point in history that will lead to the restructuring of international politics of the post-cold war period and, moreover, the world order. It is necessary to calm down and finally get to the roots of the problem.
Ukraine's position is gradually deteriorating
Therefore, I want to remind you once again about the events that provoked the current conflict. Last December, Russia proposed a security treaty in Europe to the United States and NATO. It implied a comprehensive legal formalization of the European security system, including the rejection of NATO's expansion to the East and the elimination of missile bases near the Russian border. Before the special operation, the West was not going to seriously consider this proposal from Moscow, but what now?
In June, the United States began delivering the HIMARS missile system. The Ukrainian side uses it to launch counterattacks against Russian troops. In other words, the situation is not normalizing, but rather escalating.
In connection with the provision of HIMARS, it should be noted the statements made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on July 20. He made it clear that now the goal is not only the liberation of Donbass, but also the regions located in the northern part of the Crimean peninsula – Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
In these regions, which are controlled by Russian troops, the administrative authority of Russia has already been established. Lavrov's statement is an official confirmation of this. It should be recognized that if these territories are not retaken, the Ukrainian positions will only weaken.
The struggle for freedom and democracy?
The US will continue to support the fighting in order to exhaust Russia (although, of course, Ukraine will be more exhausted). In fact, Washington does not care whether Ukraine wins or loses. The most important thing is to exhaust Moscow. Nevertheless, if the fighting drags on and Russian troops find themselves cornered, there is a risk of further deterioration of the situation.
Such risks will inevitably arise if a country with nuclear weapons is pinned down. In other words, there is no benefit in continuing the fighting. Indeed, on the eighth of August, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia announced the temporary suspension of inspections within the framework of START III. The escalation does not stop.
Simply put, the conflict over Ukraine, in fact, has nothing to do with the struggle for freedom or democracy. Rather, its essence is the issues of security and international order in Europe. Having understood this, it becomes obvious that the continuation of hostilities is not an option.
Turkey's Influence
If this continues, Kiev's problems will remain unresolved, the international community will gradually forget the hardships of the Ukrainian people, the conflict will be frozen, and Russia will actually occupy the southeast of Ukraine.
One can hardly expect a diplomatic solution from the United States, which actively supplies weapons to Kiev. In this context, Ankara's influence is growing.
Although this did not bear fruit, it was in Turkey in March that negotiations on a ceasefire at the level of foreign ministers took place, and the last agreement with the participation of Russia and Ukraine on grain exports was also reached through its mediation. This country is in a special position.
Despite the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO, it maintains close relations with Russia and even buys weapons from it. At the same time, the countries are cooperating in the energy sector: while the Nord Stream through the Baltic Sea is working intermittently, the Turkish Stream is in perfect order. At the same time, Moscow and Ankara are deepening relations in the field of nuclear energy and gas.
At a meeting with Turkish leader Erdogan in Sochi on August fifth, President Putin even said that the Turkish Stream had become one of the most important routes for Russian gas supplies to Europe.
Thus, in the current conflict over Ukraine, Turkey, located on the other side of the Black Sea, has more influence than such European powers as Germany and France. The expanded geographical targets mentioned by Foreign Minister Lavrov include the southeastern regions of Ukraine, namely, the coastal areas of the Black Sea, which historically were in the sphere of influence of Turkey, and not Western Europe (in particular, Poland).
Turkey is a country on the southern coast of the Black Sea, and the territories of southeastern Ukraine were originally under the rule of the Ottoman Empire and were acquired by Russia in the XVIII century during the reign of Catherine II.
International policy of feudal lords
A referendum on joining Russia will be held in Kherson and Zaporozhye regions in September. <…>
There are fears that such a step on the part of Moscow will promote the use of force in other regions. For example, China is probably planning to annex Taiwan by force. What should Japan do? Has Tokyo's cooperation with the United States and Australia deepened to such an extent that it will be able to respond promptly. Open discussions are needed.
For Russia, Europe and the USA have never been the center of the world. In addition, Russian culture is different from European culture. The Ukrainian conflict further strengthens Russia's differences with Europe, and also brings it closer to the Middle East. Turkey is at the forefront of this process.
If Russia gets the northern coast of the Black Sea, it will become a Black Sea state, as it was during the Russian Empire, as a result of which the distance with the Balkans and Turkey will be sharply reduced.
This will give impetus to Moscow's attempts to transform the world oriented towards the West. The UN, based on the ideal of collective security, will play an insignificant role, and the world may return to the era of militant feudal lords.
This means that the world will be dominated not only by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, but also by regional powers such as Turkey. Japan should be able to respond to such realities of international politics.
