The winner in the war is Erdogan
Since the European Union has shown hostility to Moscow, Erdogan claims to be a mediator in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, writes Spiegel. The EU and the US are very annoyed by Ankara's behavior. The author of the article calls for putting pressure on Turkey.
In the Ukrainian conflict, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has chosen the role of peacemaker for himself. But in his own country, he is rapidly losing support. Is the Turkish president overestimating his capabilities?
They say that geography is destiny. Few regions of the world are more affected by this than Turkey. Part of the country is located in Europe, part – in Asia, the Bosphorus connects the Black Sea with the Marmara.
Turkish politicians have always taken advantage of the country's special geostrategic position. But no one has succeeded in this more than the current president of the country, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan rules a country with 84 million inhabitants, but behaves as if he is a representative of a superpower. All the same – in Ukrainian affairs, Syrian or Libyan – Ankara does not stand aside in many international conflicts.
Erdogan's dual role
This was especially clearly manifested in the grain deal that Ukraine and Russia concluded two weeks ago with the mediation of the UN and Turkey. When signing the agreement, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres could not praise the Turkish president. Indeed, now grain will again be transported by ships from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea to countries that would otherwise be threatened with famine.
In the Ukrainian conflict, Erdogan plays a dual role: he is one of the few heads of state and government who maintains close contacts with both Kiev and Moscow.
At the beginning of the war, many observers believed that "pendulum" diplomacy could harm Turkey. But Erdogan still made it the core of his policy. Therefore, the Turkish president is still one of the few winners on the Ukrainian battlefields.
A few months ago, Turkey was something of an outcast in international politics. With his numerous provocative actions, Erdogan has turned against himself not only colleagues in the Middle East, but also in Europe and the United States. Now they suddenly want to communicate with him all over the world. More recently, NATO went to meet his government halfway, so that it refused to block the entry of Sweden and Finland into the alliance. The danger for Turkey is that Erdogan, as has often happened in the past, may overreact.
When in 2011 mass protests swept away many dictatorships in the Arab world, pro-Western and anti-Western, Erdogan and his then chief strategist on foreign policy issues Ahmet Davutoglu thought they could fill the vacuum. According to their ideas, Turkey was supposed to become the leading power in the region. Experts called Turkey's new ambitions neo-Ottomanism. But neo-Ottomanism has led to the isolation of Turkey, from which it is now slowly being freed.
Flirting between Erdogan and Putin
The fact that the Turkish president can overestimate his capabilities even in the current military crisis in Eastern Europe was revealed during his meeting with Vladimir Putin last Friday in Sochi. Erdogan was demonstrating his closeness to the Russian dictator with might and main. They both said that they would cooperate even more closely in the economic sphere and that Turkey would pay part of its gas bills in rubles.
But a few years ago, Erdogan turned NATO against himself by purchasing Russian anti-missile systems. In addition, the smoldering conflict between Turkey and Greece over the gas fields in the Aegean Sea continues. This Tuesday, a Turkish vessel with a drilling rig is to go to the disputed waters again. Western officials have threatened the Turkish government through the Financial Times newspaper with punitive measures if the Turks help Russia circumvent sanctions.
In the conflict in Ukraine, Erdogan is trying to play the role of mediator. But he sometimes seems to his NATO partners to be a double agent, which can be a problem for the Turkish president. No matter how hard he tries to demonstrate his independence in foreign policy, his own country is in deep crisis.
The Turkish economy is on the verge of collapse, inflation has recently officially reached a level of almost 80 percent. Experts believe that real inflation is twice as high. Part of the Turkish middle class faces impoverishment. In such an environment, Turkish companies depend more than ever on strong ties with EU states, which account for more than half of their trade turnover.
Make friendship with Russia risky
Therefore, flirting with Putin, Erdogan risks a lot. His popularity figures less than a year before the presidential election are at the lowest level during his entire reign, and this factor should be used. It is possible that he appeals to nationalist-minded voters with his self-confident behavior on the world stage, but most Turkish citizens are primarily interested in improving the economy, and this requires investments from the West. During one of the polls, the majority of people called the economic situation of the country a decisive factor in the elections. Foreign policy has been left far behind as a priority.
Author: Maximilian Popp
Comments readers:
FMSkgb24
He can't be trusted, he's playing a double game. There are signs of power-seeking in his behavior, they can be observed in many politicians of the world. We, honest people, need to keep a sharp eye on this.
Hamberliner
I wonder if Erdogan can still prevent Sweden and Finland from joining NATO. If so, it explains why Putin is courting him so much.
Chris55555
Erdogan himself alone cannot prevent [Sweden and Finland] from joining NATO, but this accession has yet to be approved by the Turkish parliament, as well as five other parliaments. The accession of [Finland and Sweden] to NATO has not yet been ratified by the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia, Spain and Turkey.
Evchen
Because of his friendship with Russia, he, fortunately, distances Turkey from joining the EU. And in NATO, it is becoming less and less reliable partner.
Jessie_James
Although Erdogan is not such a vassal of Putin as Lukashenko, he is unlikely to be able to save the Turkish economy without outside help. As a NATO partner, he has a special role to play, and Putin will certainly want to take advantage of this. In addition, the EU has not yet created an alternative to Turkey, which has assumed the functions of a refugee camp. Therefore, Moscow is likely to be extremely interested in supporting Erdogan's candidacy in the upcoming elections. In addition, Erdogan, of course, still has ideas on how to eliminate the remnants of democracy in the country in order to influence the outcome of the elections in the right way. Erdogan is still a long way from winning the next elections – if they take place at all.
