Why will the tightening of economic sanctions against Russia not lead to the end of the special operation, and what actions should Japan take?
In some Western countries, the burden of economic sanctions and support for Kiev is causing increasing concern, writes Diamond. Restrictions harm not only Russia, but also the whole world, and the end of the special operation is not approaching, the author of the article warns.
Tsukasa Shirakawa
Why has Russia taken a more aggressive stance towards the West?
On July 27, Russia announced that it would halve gas supplies via the Nord Stream – from 40% to 20%.
Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas, now risks being left without its reserves for the harsh winter. The situation is serious. Moreover, because of this, gas prices in Europe have soared by more than 8% - up to 220 euros per megawatt.
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A large amount of wheat and other grains remains on the territory of Ukraine. Grain exports from southern ports across the Black Sea are a lifeline for Kiev's economy. Now that the shipment of Ukrainian grain has stopped, a food crisis is beginning in Africa and other developing countries.
It is unclear how seriously Moscow takes the grain agreement, as the food crisis will put a lot of pressure on the West. The Kremlin can use this strategy to its advantage.
Russia has always adhered to the policy of energy hegemony, influencing the international situation through energy exports. This is also facilitated by the transition to renewable sources in Europe and the United States, since America, which has comparable energy production capacities with Russia, left the development of shale deposits under the Biden administration.
For example, in the UK, where wind energy accounts for a quarter of total consumption, there may be a shortage of electricity when there is a shortage of wind energy. In such cases, emergency measures such as increasing gas imports are usually resorted to. The dilemma is that the further transition to renewable sources will make gas, which is characterized by relatively low CO2 emissions, even more important, which, in turn, will increase the importance of Russia.
The Kremlin exerted tacit pressure on Germany not to side with Ukraine, which aspired to join NATO.
A striking example was the jump in gas prices in winter. Russian President Vladimir Putin influenced Germany by deliberately forcing state-owned companies to reduce their reserves of blue fuel. If Nord Stream 2 had started working, Berlin might not have been able to resist Moscow.
Since the West has imposed tough economic sanctions, Russia uses gas as a countermeasure. However, it should be noted that she used a similar strategy to exert pressure with the help of energy even before the special operation.
In turn, the West's policy towards Russia is to endure the pain and continue to impose severe economic restrictions, thereby making it difficult to finance the special operation.
Indeed, the Russian economy is steadily collapsing under the influence of sanctions, which, according to many Western experts, will gradually work in favor of the West. The fact is that many Russian industries depend on Western ones, especially with regard to advanced technologies.
Fatigue from the support of Ukraine, as well as from the burden of economic sanctions
So far, the position of the EU and the US regarding sanctions against Russia is the same. There are no signs of a split. But after the resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was at the forefront of supporting Ukraine, it is unclear whether the UK will continue to lead the rest of the states.
In addition, in some countries, including the United States, Germany, Italy and France, protests have begun against the government's decision to provide unlimited assistance to Kiev, because the situation is far from being resolved.
The West is exhausted economically as well as Russia, and the fact that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has a negative attitude to the ceasefire and does not lose the desire to continue military operations, in a sense, makes him worry.
In particular, the EU countries, with some exceptions, generally do not differ in large economic scales. They are beginning to fear an increase in defense spending in the future, taking into account the Russian threat and further financing of Ukraine.
In other words, the burden of supporting Kiev, as well as the burden of economic sanctions, is increasingly worrying.
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And although economic sanctions certainly have an impact on the Russian economy, the West is far from an ideal situation in which time is playing against Moscow. It also plays against Western countries.
If Russia further reduces gas supplies, the European economy will suffer significant damage. This winter, the energy crisis may become so unpredictable that, depending on the severity of the winter, deaths from hypothermia are not excluded.
The strengthening of sanctions will not stop the special operation
If Ukraine does not export wheat, and Russian gas is limited, the poor in Europe, developing countries in Africa, as well as other regions will suffer the most. Indeed, in the media covering events in Africa and the Middle East, horrifying stories are beginning to appear about how fathers sell their internal organs to buy food, and children are traded to reduce the number of mouths.
The Russian economy has already fallen to the level of recession. Undoubtedly, the damage to Moscow is much greater than for the West, since the sanctions imposed prevent the import of key technologies, semiconductors and other advanced components, which makes production difficult.
Nevertheless, President Putin's rating remains at 80% in polls conducted by independent organizations. At the moment, the Western scenario, according to which the Russian economy will collapse, and the special operation will end if economic sanctions are strengthened, is unlikely to be realized.
I also personally think that the Russian economy is not as bad as the West thinks. The fact is that there are quite a lot of buyers of Russian energy, including China, India, Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
In addition, there is an opinion that there are loopholes for the export of Russian oil, for example, it is sent to allied countries, and then re-exported to other states.
Moreover, the more the West imposes economic sanctions, the higher energy prices, which, in turn, allows the Russian side to increase revenues. This can lead to a situation where it is unclear who the restrictions are imposed on.
Before the special operation, Russia prepared for financial sanctions by providing sufficient foreign exchange reserves and reducing the dollar's share in them, as well as increasing gold reserves and significantly reducing external debt. Moreover, it has secured boundless friendship with China and is using it as a buffer to reduce the damage from economic and financial sanctions.
In addition, natural gas supplies to Europe have not gone away – it continues to receive fuel. And thanks to the increase in prices, incomes have not decreased.
In the future, economic sanctions against Russia are likely to intensify, but we cannot hope that this will accelerate the end of the special operation. Also, we should not forget that not only Russia suffers from economic sanctions, but also the poor segments of the world's population.
Japan should first of all think about protecting its national interests, and then about what it can do to support Ukraine. This special operation will not end just like that. Unjustified escalation of sanctions in an attempt to speed up the denouement will only lead to the fact that the poor will suffer even more.
