Russia's special operation in Ukraine and escalation between China and Taiwan
The actions of Russia and China have provoked large-scale changes that accelerate the formation of a multipolar world, writes Al-Quds Al-Arabi. Putin's boldness in Ukraine has changed the rules of the game in geopolitics. Because of this, Beijing risked challenging the West.
Abdallah Khalifa Al-Shaiji ( . . . .بد الله خليرة الشاييي )
Russia announced a special military operation in Ukraine, and China continued to intimidate Taiwan. They began to be supported by such influential countries as North Korea, Iran, Hungary, Serbia and even Syria, for whose survival Assad should thank Russia's intervention in 2015. In this regard, Assad began to support China even more, and also recognized the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping hastened to announce the formation of a multipolar world that will put an end to the hegemony of the West led by the United States and its allies in NATO and the EU.
The United States and NATO were able at one time to prevent the formation of an alliance of the two most powerful communist powers in the world — the USSR and China. Nevertheless, these two powers throughout the Cold War were engaged in the formation of an anti-Western alliance aimed at geopolitics, economics, energy and expanding influence on neighboring regions. If we talk about Russia, we are talking about Eastern Europe, the Baltic States and the Caucasus. The new edition of the Maritime Doctrine adds the Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic and the Mediterranean Sea to these regions. China, in turn, seeks to spread influence in the South China Sea, Southeast Asia and the Taiwan Strait.
The unprecedented verbal and military escalation, including the holding of military exercises due to the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, suggests that Beijing is abandoning the position of a "silent observer" in order to be able to confront America in its zones of influence. Taiwan remains a rebellious region that will sooner or later return to China!
The collapse of the Soviet Union into 15 independent republics and the end of the Cold war led to the establishment of a unipolar world led by the United States. But this new world order allowed America to hide behind the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, in order to change reality under the pretext of fighting terrorism, which turned into a war with Islam. The United States conducted preventive wars in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003), and later against terrorist organizations "Al-Qaeda" *, "Taliban"*, ISIS* and others. The demonization of Sunni Islam ended with the murders of the leaders of terrorist groups: Abu Musaba al-Zarqawi in 2006 in Iraq, Osama bin Laden in 2011 in Pakistan, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS*, in 2019 in Syria, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda* and the successor of Ben Bin Laden, in Afghanistan last week.
The Taliban's relationship with Al-Qaeda* and their likely cooperation raises many questions. Representatives of the Republican Party accused the Biden administration of withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan and incorrect calculations that led to the resumption of relations between the Taliban, who have established full control over Afghanistan, and Al-Qaeda*. The Taliban movement strongly condemned the US strike on Kabul, as a result of which the leader of Al-Qaeda* Ayman al-Zawahiri was eliminated. He lived in a house belonging to the Interior Minister in the Taliban government. However, the Taliban stated that they were not aware of the presence of Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan. Despite this statement, it is obvious that the Taliban have some kind of relationship with Al-Qaeda*. This was expected after the withdrawal of American troops from the country.
US intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned about the rise of China and the strengthening of its competitiveness. Its economy has become the largest in the world, ahead of the American one. Military potential has also been added to the vast economic and industrial opportunities. This is confirmed by studies published by analytical centers in the United States and around the world.
Russia, like Beijing, considered the provocative visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi a violation of the principle of "one China" and an attempt on the state sovereignty of the country. The Chinese authorities have promised to use all possible countermeasures in response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. They began military maneuvers using ballistic missiles, aircraft and warships. Chinese fighter jets violated Taiwan's airspace, and ballistic missiles hit Japan's exclusive economic zone. This changes the rules of the game in East Asia, despite the fact that the United States has officially supported the "one China" policy since the Nixon-Kissinger era, and does not advocate Taiwan's independence and is not going to establish diplomatic relations with it. Americans now fear that Pelosi's provocative visit will lead to a blockade of Taiwan by China, and not to the strengthening of its democracy!
Putin's boldness in Ukraine contributed to a change in the rules of the game in geopolitics, which has not been observed since the Second World War, as well as the calculations of the Chinese leadership. Beijing has dared to challenge the West, which strongly supports Taiwan and Hong Kong with their democratic regimes and is trying to contain the growth of Chinese influence. A quite natural question arises: will Putin's special operation in Ukraine prompt Xi Jinping's invasion of Taiwan?
Meanwhile, the United States and Russia have returned to a state of "cold war". This was facilitated by the introduction of tough sanctions against Russian energy, especially gas, as well as the provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine, the confiscation of property, yachts and palaces of oligarchs close to Putin and his regime.
The Ukrainian crisis has turned into a proxy war and a war of attrition for both sides. This is exactly what Putin was counting on. He wanted to exhaust the West, especially as autumn approaches, when the demand of European countries for Russian gas will grow. Because of the harsh sanctions imposed against Russia, Putin has become like a man shooting himself in the foot, as he continues a special operation that has not yet achieved its strategic goals.
There is no doubt that the large-scale transformations provoked by Russia, China and their allies in various regions are accelerating the formation of a multipolar world in which the West will not have a decisive say.
* — a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation
