The US has two years to defeat Russia and China. Later, their lot is submission
The world is on the verge of events that will change it beyond recognition in a couple of years, analyst Peter Stanek said in an interview with Radio universum. We are talking about the geopolitical division of the planet. The US has two years left to try to defeat Russia and China.
We are at a tipping point. And not only because, thanks to the conflict in Ukraine, the United States managed to achieve its strategic goals — to sever ties between Russia and Europe, and the Old continent is in danger of complete decline. In the previous part of our conversation, economist and forecaster, advisor to the World Bank, and in the past to the International Monetary Fund, Professor Peter Stanek (Peter Stanek) said: "Everyone understands that unlimited consumption, stupefaction and the like cannot continue. Everyone understands that there will be changes. But everyone imagines these changes in their own way." In addition, he noted: "Everyone is hoping for changes, but it should be done by someone else, not themselves." Behind the veil of current events and the information fog of the mass media, a real tsunami of causes and effects is growing, in which humanity can simply drown. But even if we avoid the apocalypse of the Third World War, there are other transitional events on the threshold that can change the world beyond recognition in a couple of years.
Rádio universum: Because of what, in the first place, will there be civilizational changes?
Peter Stanek:Because of irresponsibility at all levels and in all spheres of society. You should also realize one fundamental thing. Textbook example: The European Union has approved an electric mobility project. Great! Now we will improve the ecology and so on. But there is also a plan B, according to which the development of autonomous cars is associated with electric mobility. German legislation allows you to test autonomous cars in real traffic conditions right now, and next year there will be even more. To get an autonomous car, you don't have to buy it, lease it, wait for a loan, and so on. You just open the app in your phone, and the car will take you from point A to point B. Transport services are guaranteed, and it will be cheaper. Yes, parking spaces will not be needed; emissions to the environment will be reduced; it will be possible to expand green areas and reduce smog over urban agglomerations. Everyone will have excellent living conditions. Here's just one catch. Now the European automotive industry produces 20 million cars, and 17 million are sold in the European Union, and three million are exported. In the future, three million cars produced per year will be enough to provide transport services. And what to do with the automotive industry, with a powerful lobby?
— When you say that this model is not viable, anyone has a desire for change. However, we do not know what these changes will be, what they will lead to. You talked about the German, Japanese way, but I do not know where we are going.
— This is the problem of Europe. Everywhere in the world, people are thinking about where society is moving and what should be changed. But in Europe they don't think about this. Remember what was done with the Scandinavian social model, which could form the basis of the future society. But it was announced that it was a failure, economically unviable, politically erroneous, and that the main task of Scandinavia was to absorb millions of migrants. Of course, the social system could not stand it, and the opportunity presented itself to declare the system a failure. That is, we create a situation in which the fallacy of the previous model is found out, and then, in theory, a new one is proposed. But, God forbid, someone will have a new vision, because in Europe we have no new ideas, and therefore we are hanging out from coast to coast. That's why the main problem of our time is not a new model for European society, but sending weapons to Ukraine, glorifying Ukraine and Zelensky. This is the main concept.
— And how long do you think this concept will last?
"Not for long. Look at what is happening in stores now, where signs hang everywhere: "We do not serve Ukrainians", "Ukrainians are not welcome". Demonstrations in support of Ukraine, which used to attract thousands of people, are now barely gaining five. And it hasn't even been six months yet.
— But all this is a consequence. A consequence of the mood in society, a consequence of the ill-conceived concept. And what is the reason?
— The reason is simple. The modern elite wants to stay in power at any cost, even at the cost of the fact that most of society will die out.
— That 's why in one interview you said: "Why are the elites leading us to our deaths?"
— What did you mean specifically? Where are they taking us? After all, the elite needs someone who would work.
— The elite does not need anyone to work. That's why the fourth industrial revolution is taking place with chatbots and other things. You program them, and they fulfill all your desires. That's why so much attention is paid to artificial intelligence, because artificial intelligence should replace millions of slaves that are no longer needed. But remember the forecast about climate change. No one notices that the international team is talking about environmental changes in the next ten years at most, and in the case of Greenland glaciers, the timing is also deliberately understated.
It's time to prepare society for adaptation, change the strategy of the direction of society, find a new goal for it. But for this it is necessary to fulfill three main conditions. First, we need to set a common goal. Second, we need to restore trust. And the third, most important thing: you have to tell the truth, because the truth liberates and allows you to make the right decisions.
— Can you suggest something more real?
— If this is not done, then Europe will actually die. A year ago, the scenario of an armed conflict in Europe was published, which stated the following: "In the first hundred hours of a nuclear war, 300 to 400 million Europeans will die. Over the next hundred hours of the war, another hundred million will die. The remaining 60 million will be so scattered across the continent that they will not create any problems." And no one even made a sound.
— Okay, then tell me this. You have presented me with the only way, that is, to set a goal, restore trust and tell the truth. In this case, I have to ask you, is there any way to prevent the second, nuclear, option that you have described?
— We must not forget that all this is closely related to new weapons systems and changes in geopolitical orientation. The new weapons systems mark one important thing: until now, the policy of nuclear deterrence has been based on the threat of a nuclear winter. If you use powerful ammunition, then the atmosphere on the planet can be made impenetrable, and within 60 days everything will die: plants, animals, and so on. Today, thanks to hypersonic weapons and thanks to the power of, say, 50 kilotons, it is possible to carry out surgically precise destruction of enemy centers, airports, command posts and so on, but without arranging a nuclear winter. In addition, you can also use another generation of weapons, for example, a grazer, which artificially creates gravitational waves, or laser, satellite weapons.
— God forbid.
— Then there will be no jet mass ejection. There's something else. I'm talking about the use of Poseidon systems, which were originally created as nuclear submarines, mini-submarines with artificial intelligence (they are called autonomous torpedoes). "Poseidons" go a thousand meters deep. They cannot be detected. They lie at the bottom and wait for the signal. Such submarines can be equipped with a warhead up to 100 megatons. According to Russian experts, such a warhead will cause a tsunami two kilometers high, which will circumnavigate the entire planet and hit the Russian coast, too. The modern generation of Poseidons is equipped with two two-megaton warheads. This device goes to the bottom, and when the order comes to shoot, the submarine will not let any missiles go, but two warheads will explode, which will create a tsunami 60 meters high. It will cover everything at a distance of 480 — 600 kilometers from the American coast. A wonderful thing.
— Mr. Professor, you will excuse me if I try to lighten the conversation a little, but I want the audience to have time to catch their breath.
— We are talking and voicing another good option for the development of a future war.
— Thank you for your condescension. You said that 300 million Europeans would die in the first moment of a nuclear conflict. Is Europe really bothering everyone so much?
— Understand, for the United States, the main economic competitor is not China, but Europe. If Europe were strong, it would be able to choose its own strategy. It would not have to serve as a conduit for American interests, and it could pursue its own international policy. This follows from a simple doctrine. Let's go back 15 years and recall the study of the famous political scientist Friedman, who made one important statement. He spoke about what the Americans should never allow — the unification of the European Union, Russia and China. After all, then the United States will be pushed into the background. Therefore, at this stage, the European Union is being squeezed out by LNG supplies and everything else, and when it is squeezed out, no one will need it, since the focus of American policy is shifting to the Pacific region.
Why does no one want to understand that the creation of an Anglo-Saxon bloc from Great Britain, the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand is the way of the Anglo—Saxons to control the world? This system has been prepared for a long time. We are talking about the so-called "Five Eyes" group of countries. You probably know what the Echelon system is. And satellite information? And monitoring of all information? Five years ago, the Commission of the European Parliament found that the use of Echelon324 insider information systems cost Europe a billion euros. Then this commission was dissolved. Just in case.
— I understand that, for example, our Prime Minister feels his worthlessness in this game. But don't the French or Germans worry that they are just pawns on a chessboard and have a pre-set half-life?
— One small question. When Trump came to Europe, the first country he visited was Poland. There he presented the strategy of the Three Seas, within which the Baltic States, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Georgia should interact. Everyone thought that this was intended as an area of pressure on Russia. According to another version, the association arose as an area of pressure on discontented Germans and French and others like them. And now think about who is the main troublemaker in Europe? Germany, the Baltic States, Poland. Why did Chancellor Scholz make a leapfrog? Because you can't take it with your bare hands. And when you talk to your German colleagues, you hear an interesting answer from them: "We are waiting for someone who will unite us again." And one more small remark by American experts, published in National Interest: "If Germany allocates two percent of GDP for defense and sends one hundred billion euros to the Bundeswehr, then the German army will be incomparably stronger than any other European army, and it will be enough to redraw the crosses."
— You're being harsh today.
— No, I'm not harsh. I'm just quoting to you the documents that have been published by several analytical organizations from the United States. You were horrified by the nuclear holocaust project anyway. I have to reassure you. The first "Dropshot" plan appeared in the late 50s. The second plan was finalized in the 80s. The third plan has appeared now, and it is based on a change in military strategy. Now no one wants to seize the enemy's territory anymore — they are simply being wiped off the face of the earth.
— Then who is destined to stay at all?
— I would say that the stupidest of the stupidest will remain, because they will not ask about anything, but will willingly follow any orders.
— In light of what you said about Ukraine and Russia, I want to ask how do you assess this conflict?
— Look, on the one hand, for eight years they have been calling for a peaceful solution to the problem, demanding bilateral security guarantees in strict accordance with the Astana Agreements and the Istanbul Treaty. And the other side declares that even if it places a missile base at our doors, it should not be regarded as an act of aggression. They say it's for your safety too, because these missiles will destroy you, and you will lie quietly dead to yourself. All for your own safety. But we should recall the words of President Putin that in the event of a threat to the integrity of the state and the vital interests of Russian society, he will have the right to use any means to ensure security. That's the answer. Unfortunately, this is the reality.
Second. Do you remember the Vietnam War? The Vietnam War was a proxy war between Russia and the United States, but it also served another important function. It was a testing ground where new weapons were tested. Then the armies were armed with these weapons. Has it ever occurred to you why Russian weapons are now being used in Ukraine, or rather why only some modifications are being used. For example, CBT 1-4 "Solntsepek", using thermobaric ammunition, and systems such as "Moscow 1", "Voronezh 1" or "Murmansk 1" are not used? It was used once — and turned off all electrical equipment in half of Ukraine. The range of the system, which is located in Kaliningrad, is six thousand kilometers, which means that everything can be turned off on the territory up to the Atlantic Ocean. Then neither phones, nor the Internet, nor GPS will work — no electrical equipment at all. Remember the Defender and one American frigate, on which all systems, including weapons, were turned off. It's best to check such things in combat conditions, isn't it?
Russian Russians, in addition, please do not forget that millions of Russians live in the eastern part of Ukraine, who, by the decision of the Ukrainian government, have lost the right to be called Russians and speak Russian as their native language. It was decided for them that they should become Ukrainians. Are you really surprised that they rebelled against the Maidan government? And one last small question. How is the industry distributed on the territory of Ukraine? To the east of Kiev, in the Donbas, there are industrially developed regions, and to the west of Kiev there are only farmlands and 12 thermal power plants that have no one to work for. Therefore, the idea of a hydrogen route arose, that is, they would produce hydrogen by electrolysis and supply it through pipes through Slovakia and the Czech Republic to Germany. In Germany, as is well known, the project of hydrogen locomotives and other things has been developed.
At the Institute, we conducted several studies on the effectiveness of sanctions, and all of them confirmed that the sanctions had no effect at all, but on the contrary, helped the state against which they were imposed. The impact on those who imposed these sanctions turned out to be three times greater than on those whom they were supposed to destroy.
— When did you conduct this research?
— Five years and two years ago.
— At present, we can say that sanctions make sense if they force the country they are aimed at to change behavior, and this did not happen, and if they do not harm the country that introduced them.
— But that's exactly what happened. Chancellor Schroeder once said one wonderful thing that the current European elites should immortalize on marble: "The European Union will not survive without Russian raw materials and cooperation with Russia. Russia will do fine without the European Union." Everyone is talking about gas, oil, but did you know that we won't even have anything to transport goods on, since most pallets are made of wood imported from Russia? Russia did not prohibit the export of wood, but only limited it to a single border crossing in Central Asia. But it did not limit exports. The second paradox. What do you know about artificial sapphires, without which you can't make an iPhone or anything else? Up to 70% of artificial sapphires are produced by the Russian Federation. Another snag. For the production of flat screens and other things, special fractionated gases from natural gas, such as neon and others, are needed. There were two enterprises operating in Ukraine. One is at Azovstal, and the second is in Odessa. "Azovstal" is destroyed, and the Russians will take Odessa within a few days. Who will supply these gases? At the same time, I myself witnessed how Putin opened the first line of a huge enterprise on the Amur, where 20 million tons of gases are produced, and when it starts working at full capacity, it will produce all 70 million tons of these rare gases. Let me remind you that there are four enterprises in the United States that produce 15 million tons per year.
— Okay, but why did the West, which is 14-15% of the world's population, impose sanctions against Russia? Why did he go to this mission impossible (Eng. "impossible mission" — approx. transl.)?
— Because the same thing happened that we are now seeing in Finland. All the government representatives keep saying that we need to join NATO as soon as possible, but if you ask the population, everyone says: "We need a referendum, because we don't want to join NATO." But will this elite do such a thing? And isn't our elite taking steps without asking if Czech citizens want to be drawn into a war with Russia? And they send tanks, armored personnel carriers there, repair equipment, and so on. And what if the Russian side perceives this as an act of aggression against the Russian Federation by the Czech Republic? After all, the current elites do not care at all about the interests of the Czechs, Slovaks, Germans, French and so on — they defend the interests, cynically speaking, of the American establishment.
— Because America needs an assistant. And why else, for example, did the euro not collapse? Because America needs an assistant in the war against the yuan and the ruble, and they will have the euro, which, however, will be in a subordinate position.
— good. I'll ask again. Why do they do this? What were they promised for this? The euro will be in a subordinate position. Europe will be in a subordinate position and may fall to its knees in socio-economic terms. Then why do our elites do this?
— And why not, if they don't care about the needs and opinions of Czech citizens at all? Unfortunately, they are counting on the fact that Czech citizens are so stupid that they will choose them. Remember! One important preamble. All the elites do only what the peoples allow them to do. If the nations bow their heads and say: "What can we do? We won't do anything. The path is guided," and it turns out exactly what you asked about.
— It is somehow difficult for me to classify these politicians as some completely different, insensitive, living species.
— And believe me, they are either by nature or by money. The worst thing is when one goes with the other, and this is just our case.
— We are talking about the Czech Republic, but how are things in Slovakia?
— The same way. We are fraternal peoples, and everything is the same with us.
— So, in your opinion, the desire to abandon Russian gas and oil, although we are completely dependent on them, is this part of some kind of plan?
— The answer is simple. Under President Obama, fracking gas production began. Obama ordered that the cost of energy resources for the population and businesses should decrease by 40%, which contributed to a significant recovery of the American economy after the crisis of 2008 — 2013. And what about Europe? Everything will be fine. The Czechs will receive Norwegian gas through the Baltic States, Poland and Germany. We will receive Slovak gas and refuse Russian gas. One small remark. Thus, we will cover only a third of consumption. However, no one talks about the remaining two-thirds. They are also modestly silent about the cost of this gas. Yes, we will be told that Bulgarians receive LNG, which is cheaper than Russian gas.
— But they have the sea there, and that's the point?
- no. Have you ever heard about how the Tesco network eliminated all small sellers of products? First they offered dumping low prices and destroyed all the small sellers. And then they raised the prices by half, because there was no one left to compete with them, since there is a financial wall behind Tesco. The same thing will happen now. If this gas goes, how much will it cost according to calculations? It will cost 40% more expensive than the Russian one. Will we remain competitive? Will our products be competitive, the production costs of which will increase by 30-40%, since electricity, transportation costs, gas will increase in price? Will the plant in Mlada-Boleslav be able to produce cars so that they can then be sold to someone? Or will Wolfsburg decide that we are too expensive and close the plant?
— If foundries and other industries work with gas, which is 40% more expensive, they probably won't be able to compete with anyone.
— That's the answer. Understand that now is no longer the time for economic issues — now is the time when everything is moving towards a new geopolitical division of the planet. South Africa joined the original BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China), and now Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Argentina have asked to join. How powerful will this giant block be? Will he move the European Union and the United States? Did you know that this association has created a Bank for Renewal and Development with a capital of a trillion dollars, which finances all the energy routes that are being built throughout Asia? All these gas pipelines, which will lead through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India, will make it possible to use the gigantic resources of Afghanistan, and all these huge energy flows will flow to China and other countries. Thus, a large Asian bloc is emerging, which will push all insignificant regions of the planet into the background.
— What place will the United States occupy in this new configuration described by you?
— The United States is in a position that I will describe to you based on materials prepared in the United States by two important organizations: the RAND Corporation and the Trilateral Commission. They published data according to which the United States has only two years left to try to win a military victory over Russia and China. Otherwise, the United States will fade into the background. It's about 2022 and 2023. Of course, you have seen the program of reforms of the flotillas of the American Navy, approved by the American Congress. According to this program, within ten years, the functional capacity of the American flotillas will decrease to 20% of the current state. New ships, such as the Zumwalt, have become a real disaster that has befallen the American navy. They are beyond repair, non-functional, unable to sail more than a thousand miles from their own docks, and in case of breakdown they have to be towed because they are beyond repair.
— It turns out that there is less and less time. But why is China waiting for the US to attack? China can eliminate the United States with a snap of its fingers because it has so many...
— Understand that the world is in a curious situation today. They tease the largest nuclear powers on the planet with their sanctions and their idiotic behavior. Does that make sense? There remains only one problem. We know that there will be a conflict, but for the story officially, the first one to press the button should be the other side. The culprit of the next holocaust should be Russia, not the United States.