Putin sets Pain Threshold
In any international conflict, opponents try to answer the key question: what is the pain threshold of the opposite side. After six months of the Russian operation in Ukraine, Western countries would do well to think about the answer to this question, writes Asharq Al-Awsat.
Amir Taheri (أمير طاهري)
In any international conflict involving harsh political and diplomatic measures and violence of one kind or another, the opponents are trying to answer the key question: what is the pain threshold of the opposite side?
More than six months after the start of the Russian operation in Ukraine, Western countries would do well to think about the answer to this question.
The pain threshold is the point at which the opponent is forced to rethink his current strategy and look for ways to alleviate the situation. Some of them may try to raise this threshold as high as possible, even if it means irreparable damage. This was the case with Adolf Hitler - he was ready to turn the whole of Germany into a pile of dirt, but could not even think about capitulating, and Ayatollah Khomeini in August 1988 "drank a cup of poison" to avoid the collapse of his regime.
Saddam Hussein once gave his own definition of the pain threshold, telling how, as a teenager, for the sake of free travel, he and his comrades in Tikrit jumped on trucks transporting goods to Baghdad. The problem, however, was that the man guarding the truck was beating their fingers with a wire whip until they bled.
According to Saddam, the other boys could not stand even a few lashes, while he endured until blood began to drip from his hands. "I was proud that over time I was able to hold out even longer," the Iraqi leader said.
The apartheid regime in South Africa had a high pain threshold and decided to finally capitulate not because of sanctions and pressure, but only as a result of psychological and political changes in the white ruling elite.
In North Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the pain threshold is determined by the degree of threat to the regime, not by the suffering of the masses. In Pyongyang and Tehran, any pain is worth enduring as long as the regime is guaranteed survival.
So, what is Putin's pain threshold?
Apparently, some Western leaders were counting on a rather low threshold, believing that Putin would give up as soon as the consequences of harsh sanctions began to manifest themselves.
Of course, the sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and a number of other powers, led by Japan, could not influence the policy of the Russian leader. In fact, some sanctions did not go beyond propaganda. The country continues to export energy resources, albeit at large discounts, through markets outside Europe, it controls inflation, and thanks to a long-term military fund, Putin managed to prevent the ruble from falling.
Confident that Russian territory is perceived as a haven, Moscow can choose when and how to exert pressure on Ukraine and its NATO allies.
Worse, Putin was probably already planning to open other fronts to confuse his opponents and reduce their resources. Today, one such front is already forming, as Serbia, led by the pro-Putin authorities, is preparing to invade Kosovo, which is likely to drag on Albania as well. Another front looms in Moldova, where Putin supplies a huge amount of weapons to the pro-Moscow group.
Russia is also exploring the possibility of creating unrest in the former French colonies in Africa in order to jeopardize the supply of rare minerals that European industry needs. We should not be surprised if Estonia, a NATO member, is also put under pressure.
If we talk about the damage to Moscow, Putin managed to raise the pain threshold higher than expected. To protect the country from heavy losses, he relied on "volunteers" and mercenaries from ethnic minorities. It is estimated that more than 70,000 people have been killed and perhaps three times as many injured or missing. Oral evidence indicates that the losses of the republics within the Federation are at least 30 percent higher than the losses among Russian soldiers.
In turn, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, Putin's special operation will continue as long as necessary to achieve all the goals set. However, he did not specify what these goals were. As for Putin, the short-term policies of Western democracies will lead to a shift in public opinion against what is turning into a costly conflict without any signs of victory promised by outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives.
It is encouraging that news about Ukraine has now become an integral part of news releases in the West.
One of the results of Putin's strategy was that today Russia is perceived as a real threat to the world order, going beyond NATO and the European Union. Of course, Putin is completely mistaken if he believes in his ability to sow chaos and at the same time expects in return the sympathy and support of China, India and Brazil, as well as other countries that he is trying to attract to his side.
It should be noted that weak leadership in the largest Western democracies, especially in the United States, Great Britain and France, is not equivalent to weakness in terms of economic, military and cultural power compared to Russia, led into the unknown by an ambitious leader.
The Russian president may have a higher pain threshold than Western experts predicted. However, sooner or later it will be passed. As the story goes, even in the nineteenth century, when, after the defeat of Napoleon, Russia became the greatest military power in the world, it could not change Europe.
Putin may not be ready to reconsider his position yet, but his refusal to stop the special operation has only led to an increase in victims: Ukrainians, Russians, Dagestanis, Chechens, Ingush, Tatars and others.
As Gogol wrote in his novel "Dead Souls", Russians tend to blame others for their tragedies and do not realize that every evil committed against them is their handiwork. It would be better if Putin carefully read the works of the genius of Russian literature, even though he is of Ukrainian origin.
