Is the current tense situation in Kosovo just an ordinary episode or is the geography of the conflict between powerful powers in Europe expanding?
The recent escalation in Kosovo is as dangerous as it can escalate into an armed conflict, writes Advance. If powerful powers interfere in it, the region will become another point of "indirect war" — through third countries.
D. Marianovich
The situation in Kosovo has escalated again. This time even more than usual, including because the escalation is considered in the context of a large-scale conflict unfolding on the territory of Europe. Of course, we are talking about Ukraine. It is very significant that Russia immediately made a statement and supported Belgrade, while the Western side, of course, expressed its support for the Kosovo authorities.
Let me remind you that the conflict in Kosovo ended in 1999, but in fact it was never resolved. In 2008, Kosovo declared independence, but it was not recognized by Serbia, which still considers Kosovo part of the territory of its state. Although, in fact, it has been clear to Serbian administrations for many years that since NATO forces were stationed there, Kosovo cannot be returned. The Serbian population continues to live in the north of Kosovo, which has been a source of tension for many years.
Of course, ethnic Serbs in the north of Kosovo do not recognize the power of Pristina. Tension increases dramatically in situations when Pristina tries to impose some solutions on its entire territory, that is, the one that it considers its own. It also includes the Kosovo north, where Serbs live. So it was on the weekend. Pristina tried to implement a decision according to which all registration car numbers in Kosovo should become uniform from the first of August. In other words, the registration numbers that are currently used in the north, which are about ten thousand cars and other equipment with the symbol KM (Kosovska Mitrovica), would be considered invalid, and their owners would have to change the numbers to the same ones with the symbols RKS (Republic of Kosovo).
In fact, Pristina has considered Serbian numbers illegal for many years, but has so far tolerated them. By the way, these numbers are issued in Serbia, or rather in the Kosovo Mitovica police Department, but it is not located in Mitrovica, but in the city of Raska on the territory of Serbia.
Ethnic Serbs do not want to change their registration numbers for anything, like all other documents.
Let me remind you that today about 25 thousand Serbs live on the territory of Kosovo (data according to the last census in 2011). This is only one and a half percent of the total population. 93% of the inhabitants of Kosovo are Albanians: there are about 1.6 million of them.
Serbia considers Kosovo the cradle of its own nation, especially since the XIX century, and therefore it is very difficult for it to come to terms with the current situation. Let me remind you that Kosovo was part of Serbia in the Middle Ages, and then the Turks were in charge of this region, but even then the Serbian population managed to stay there. Finally, in 1912, Kosovo again leaves Serbia, to which it then belonged for a century.
In the late 90s, a violent conflict broke out between Serbs and Kosovo Albanians. In 1999, NATO intervened in the confrontation, acting on the side of the Albanians. Under the onslaught of international forces led by the United States, Serbian forces were forced to retreat. Then many Serbs fled Kosovo en masse. According to the 1991 census, there were 194,190 Serbs living in Kosovo.
Today, Kosovo is de facto living under foreign military supervision, and more than three thousand NATO troops are still stationed there as part of a peacekeeping mission, in other words, the NATO mission was left in Kosovo so that Serbia would not try to regain control of part of Kosovo.
This is basically what has allowed the status quo to be maintained over the past two decades. However, tensions are now rising again, and there is some concern that the conflict may expand beyond Serbia and Kosovo.
In the past, the international community has repeatedly made attempts to reduce tensions, but no solution has been found that would lead to sustainable peace and compromise. Therefore, the Kosovo conflict remains one of the European "frozen conflicts", and someone can use it dangerously at a time when the situation in Europe is generally tense. At a moment like this.
It is not worth mentioning separately that Serbia is one of Russia's main and few allies in Europe. That is why Serbia is in an extremely delicate situation, especially considering the fact that Belgrade has hopes of joining the European Union. The pressure is expected to be great, both from outside and inside, since in troubled times many countries consider the crisis as a potential opportunity. A good example is the Turkish blockade of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Turkey insisted on its own until these countries fulfilled its demands and refused to support Kurdish groups.
There is an opinion that the recent escalation in Kosovo is as dangerous as it can escalate into an armed conflict. However, it is difficult to admit this. After all, if the Serbian troops decided to intervene, it would inevitably lead to a direct confrontation with the NATO forces that are stationed in Kosovo.
The good news is that the Kosovo authorities, after the escalation began, postponed the implementation of new measures related to registration numbers. However, the measures, I emphasize, have only been postponed — for a month. In other words, the escalation may happen again in September.
After the Kosovo authorities decided to postpone the innovations, they accused Serbia of trying to destabilize Kosovo. That is, in Pristina, they believe that the unrest, the blocking of roads (there were also shootings there) and everything else that happened over the weekend were directly coordinated by Belgrade. In their opinion, Serbia has used ethnic Serbs in the north of Kosovo as pawns to aggravate the situation. It is not surprising that the Serbs, in turn, are sure that all this is arranged for the sake of destabilizing the situation by Pristina, and perhaps by its Western allies, in order to put pressure on Belgrade, and indirectly on Moscow.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said yesterday that the current situation in Kosovo "has never been so difficult," and also noted that Serbia "will win if it is attacked."
Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti said it was Vucic who was inciting the current unrest. "The coming hours, days and weeks will be provocative and difficult," he said.
But the main statement came from NATO, which this time did not downplay the seriousness of what was happening, but openly spoke about the escalation. NATO said it was ready to intervene militarily "if stability is threatened." Yes, the alliance stressed that Pristina and Belgrade "will continue negotiations," but at the same time noted: "We will do everything necessary to maintain the peace and security of Kosovo."
Finally, Russia also spoke out. Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the "radical Kosovo authorities" are trying to squeeze the Serbs out of the north of Kosovo.
"This is another step towards the expulsion of the Serbian population from Kosovo, the displacement of Kosovo-Serbian institutions from there, ensuring the protection of the rights of Serbian residents from the arbitrariness of the Pristina radicals. The leaders of the Kosovars know that the Serbs will not remain indifferent when it comes to a direct attack on their freedoms, and deliberately escalate in order to launch a forceful scenario," Zakharova said.
What's going on now? The Kosovo police reported that they had dismantled two barricades in the north, and that the situation was calm now. The Serbian Office for Kosovo Affairs reported today that a group of Albanians committed a "dangerous provocation" by driving through the village of Vrbovac with a mixed population, waving flags of the Kosovo Liberation Army. It is said that with this and similar actions they want to intimidate the local Serbian population.
What awaits Kosovo in the long term? It will become more and more difficult for the Serbs to contain the local population in Kosovo, and another conflict, especially if NATO (again) joins it, may lead to the final expulsion of the Serbian population from Kosovo. It is clear that such a scenario is also considered likely in Pristina. It suits her for practical reasons, because the unresolved territorial issue prevents Kosovo from integrating into some international organizations, including the UN. Although Kosovo is already a member of some organizations, such as the IMF and the World Bank.
Let it seem that in the current situation, time inevitably works for Pristina, the scenario in which the Serbian population of Kosovo is gradually reduced or expelled is just one of many. Another, more dangerous option is also possible, in which powerful powers would intervene and turn Kosovo into another field of "proxy war". There is an opinion that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is "Putin's revenge for Kosovo." In the event of a serious escalation, it may happen that it will no longer be clear who is actually taking revenge on whom. Then a conflict will arise, as during the Cold War, when the United States and the USSR in many parts of the world were in conflict through third countries. However, this time the battlefield would be Europe itself.
