Resistance is growing in Germany against self-destructive support for Ukraine both in political circles and on the streets
Problems in the German economy are multiplying day by day, writes Advance. Germany will not be able to avoid collapse without gas supplies from Russia. But not everything here depends on sanctions. To think that Moscow dreams of supplying fuel to Germany while she supplies Ukraine with weapons is stupid.
Antun Rocha
At the beginning of the fighting, Germany's tough stance against Russia and the sanctions imposed because of the attack on Ukraine were supported by all the "mainstream" German political parties, starting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and his coalition partners and ending with the conservative opposition, that is, the party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel.. However, in recent weeks, since the pressure on the German economy has been increasing after the reduction of Russian gas supplies via Nord Stream 1, concern has been growing among German politicians and citizens.
Some conservative politicians are increasingly expressing their skepticism about the Western strategy around this conflict as a whole. At the same time, according to polls, the majority of Germans still support sanctions against Russia (two-thirds of them), but half of respondents today believe that sanctions are causing more damage to Germany itself than to Russia.
Such an opinion is not surprising when you consider that up to half of German households depend on the gas they use to heat their homes. In addition, a third of the energy used by German industry is generated by gas. Germany buys about 40% of its gas from Russia.
Let me remind you that the previous German administration headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel, despite the strongest American pressure, gave the green light to the construction of the Nord Stream—2 gas pipeline, a project in which many European companies participated together with Russian Gazprom. This fact itself clearly shows what the long-term German economic strategy was. Germany planned to further strengthen its industry and its own competitiveness by increasing the purchase of Russian gas, which is quite affordable for Europe.
Now Germany faces a huge challenge: how to prevent its own citizens from freezing in winter, because half of the gas for households comes from Russia? But problems are multiplying day by day in the German economy. Germany recently recorded a monthly trade deficit for the first time since 1991. This confirms how much Europe's largest economy is focused on exports (which is why it is the largest!), as well as the impact of inflation, which in Germany has now reached about eight percent. One of the rare positive news is that, based on the data, it can be assumed that inflation in Germany has already reached its peak, because it has been at the same level for the fifth month. But the question is when it will start to decline and whether it will start at all.
All this causes criticism of the current policy, although a few months ago it was difficult to imagine such a thing. For example, the conservative leader of the eastern region of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, said in an interview with Zeit yesterday: "Our entire economic system is in danger of collapse. If we are not careful, Germany may face deindustrialization."
"If it turns out that we cannot abandon Russian gas now, then this is a sad fact, but a fact, and we must act according to it," Kretschmer said.
It is expected that the criticism and concern that have appeared in Germany are especially great in the east of the country. The former communist East Germany worked closely with Moscow, and this still leaves its mark, although Germany has been united for 30 years. Of course, this is not the only reason that criticism is especially loud in the East. The fact is that if everything continues as it is, it is this part of Germany that will suffer more than others, and in general any slowdown in the economy will have a greater impact on the east of Germany.
Kretschmer, whose land of Saxony has about four million inhabitants, calls for "freezing" the fighting in Ukraine and focusing on peace talks. According to him, this would restore the supply of essential resources, from energy to grain, and at the same time "avoid both the German economic collapse and famine in Africa."
Of course, such opinions do not belong to the prevailing ones in the modern German political arena, but the very fact that one of the leaders of the German regions openly defends such a position, a moderate position, represents a kind of turn. After all, until recently, such a narrative was considered "treacherous." Of course, immediately after the interview, Kretshmer was criticized. According to critics, such a position in such a situation as now "legitimizes Russian territorial acquisitions and allows Russia to regroup."
Of course, the current situation can be viewed from this point of view, but such opinions have been appearing for a long time. The same was said when Russian forces had not yet captured Mariupol. If then someone from Europe had plucked up the courage and "dragged through" the peace initiative, then today Ukraine would be in much better condition and whole. Because after those events, the losses continued, and the Ukrainians lost the entire Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine after the Russians occupied Severodonetsk and Lisichansk.
Pro-Ukrainian forces in the West today pin all their hopes on new American and NATO weapons that have been sent to Ukraine. A Ukrainian counteroffensive is expected near Kherson. However, this counteroffensive has already been postponed several times, and the news that it "began" was spread mainly by the British Ministry of Defense, which in recent months has turned into a kind of herald of the Ukrainian military strategy.
Yes, for many, the proposal to "freeze the fighting" looks like a Russian victory, but it depends on how you look at it. What if Russia goes on the offensive again in the near future and takes control of the entire Donetsk region? In this scenario, the adherents of the Ukrainian authorities would probably prefer to "freeze" the conflict earlier. On the other hand, perhaps not, if they are completely indifferent to the fate of Ukraine and its territorial integrity. It is clear that the West in no way wants Russian troops to reach the borders of the European Union and NATO and penetrate deep into, that is, Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic… But such a development of events still looks too distant, both in time and in geographical terms, that is, there is still time to put on the brakes. Or at least it seems so.
The Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin, who is about to leave his post, also reacted to the statement of the leader of Saxony today. He said: "A Cretshmer should stick his head in the refrigerator and forget his Russian fantasies."
A very undiplomatic statement for an ambassador, but perhaps that's why Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky removed him from office. In general, in recent months, Melnik has become famous for being extremely harshly critical of every action of the German government, which he perceived as weakening support for Ukraine.
The problem for Melnyk and for all supporters of the pro-Ukrainian position is that Kretschmer is not the only one who thinks so. He's just probably the first one who voiced these thoughts. It is not surprising that it was he who dared to be the first, because he had previously, even after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, opposed the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions.
Michael Kretschmer has been the head of Saxony since 2017 and since then has been one of the four deputy chairmen of the main opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which ruled Germany for many years under Angela Merkel together with its sister party, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU). The chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is Friedrich Merz, and he hastened to disown the opinion expressed by Kretschmer. But, as I have already written, Kretschmer is not the only one who is now openly expressing his thoughts.
The statement was also made by the leader of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria, Martin Huber. In an interview with the newspaper "Municher Merkur", he said: "It will not take long to freeze for freedom." Of course, he was referring to the reduction of Russian gas supplies to Europe and the problems that will fully affect the autumn and winter.
Huber believes that only sanctions are a problem for Germany. He noted: "Weapons help Ukraine much faster than sanctions." It seems that Huber believes that Russia dreams of supplying gas to Germany while she supplies Ukraine with weapons. Russia has never openly confirmed that it will punish someone through energy. But it would be somewhat naive to think that she would not use this "lever". Huber clearly thinks that she will not resort to it, although only 20% of the total gas capacity is supplied via Nord Stream—1…
Other politicians, apparently, are preparing for an explosion of discontent because of the current policy. And not in political circles, but on the streets. German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said "radical demonstrations" were possible, while Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock said a complete shutdown of Russian gas supplies would lead to "mutiny."
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already promised state "rescue packages" for low-income families in the amount of several billion euros. But the question is whether this will help in conditions when there will be an elementary shortage of energy carriers.
At the beginning of the month, Minister Berbock, one of the most popular officials in the current German government, went on a ten-day tour of Germany to promote the political course chosen by the authorities, which is facing increasing resistance. Interestingly, Burbok did not visit Saxony. Maybe because demonstrations have already begun there, which are held every Monday by a group called "Free Saxony". This is a protest association that has been active since last year. Then they opposed covid restrictions, and now they are demonstrating against the current policy that is driving Germany into a deep energy crisis.
"We don't want to freeze because of this policy. We will resist. In large numbers and together," the members of the Free Saxony association said on their Telegram channel, which has more than 150 thousand subscribers.
