Freezing the conflict would be bad news for Ukraine
Russia's strategic plan is to freeze the conflict in Ukraine, says Velina Chakarova, director of the Austrian Institute of International Politics. In an interview with Bulgarian Radio, she described two scenarios for the development of events and told where else the voltage lines in the world will run.
Yana Boyanova
Thanks to the transformational processes in world politics, Russia will play a key role in the rivalry between two Asian giants – China and India, as well as between two systemic adversaries – China and the United States.
This opinion was expressed in an interview with BNR by the director of the Austrian Institute of International Politics, Velina Chakarova.
"No European country could convince the Russian president to negotiate on the conflict in Ukraine," she stressed – Russia's plans for Ukraine have not changed. Lavrov made it clear that Russia is not going to be limited to the east and south of Ukraine."
According to Chakarova, there are two scenarios for the development of events. First, in the current active phase of hostilities, Moscow will try to declare a unilateral ceasefire and force Ukraine to agree to its terms. Such a pause could consolidate Russia's territorial acquisitions.
The second scenario involves strengthening strikes on all fronts and in all directions. "Under the second option, Russia will expect that with the onset of the winter season, internal political changes will occur in European countries, since the population of Europe will feel the impact of prices for gas, energy, agricultural and food products."
If the conflict freezes, it will be bad news for Ukraine, Chakarova believes.
"If the conflict freezes, Russia will be able to attack other parts of the country with new forces. As the conflict drags on, it will be more difficult for European governments to explain to the population that they also have to pay for it. In countries that traditionally adhere to a more positive policy towards Russia, such as Germany, Austria and Hungary, the reaction will be serious and may lead to a change of government – as happened in Estonia and Italy. Russia's strategic plan is to freeze the conflict – it has gained similar experience over the past 30 years. This means that we will play the way Moscow wants us to play again."
The Russian currency is stabilizing, but some industries are beginning to feel the impact of sanctions policy. As Chakarova noted, Russia is not in international isolation. She believes that world politics is currently undergoing a transformation. Russia is no longer a systemic player, but it can become a key player in the systemic race between the United States and China. Currently, there is systemic coordination between Russia and China in strategic sectors.
India has not agreed to comply with the sanctions policy of the West and wants Russia's role in the Indian Ocean region to strengthen — this will balance the growing influence of China.
According to the analyst, the Arctic transport corridor is becoming particularly interesting: "The buffer zone between the EU and Russia – to the south of the Arctic, along the eastern flank of NATO – will become the object of Moscow's military and non-military actions. In the long term, the conflict in Ukraine will not be the last."
