Cold showers, cold houses and a cold war — all for the sake of an idea that does not concern us. Is the prophecy "To hell with it, with Europe?" really coming true?
A cold shower is not the worst thing that awaits Europe in the near future, writes Advance. There is an imminent economic degradation ahead, which will become permanent. And when the region does find some solution to its energy problems, it will be too late.
D. Marianovich
Gas prices in Europe have risen by an incredible 30% in just two days after Russia announced another supply restriction. Today, prices are ten times higher than average gas prices from 2010 to 2020.
The sharp increase in the cost of gas has been going on since the beginning of the week after Russia's Gazprom announced that supplies via the Nord Stream -1 gas pipeline would be halved from the already reduced capacity. Since yesterday, only a fifth of its total capacity has been supplied through the pipeline, and after all, Nord Stream plays a key role in supplying Europe with gas, including Germany, the largest economy of the European Union.
Although it was known that Russia could further reduce supplies, many did not expect that the cost of gas would increase so much. James Huxtepp from Emea gas analytics commented on the situation in an interview with the Financial Times: "Everyone in the market expected Russia to reduce volumes, but the market did not expect that the amount of gas would decrease so quickly."
It is strange to hear that the market did not expect such a turn. After all, just a week ago, Europe was worried that Russia might not restore gas supplies via Nord Stream—1 at all after completing ten days of maintenance in accordance with the annual schedule. Judging by this market reaction, it can be assumed that many in Europe are still experiencing great and, I must say, unjustified optimism about Russia's retaliatory measures. It seems that this optimism boils down to the idea that Russia will not want to incur losses by punishing the Europeans by stopping gas supplies. However, this is probably a mistaken belief, especially if Moscow, with its recent statements about the "beginning of a new geopolitical era", is really serious. Russia thereby makes it clear that it is ready to make sacrifices, perhaps even greater than the loss of income from the sale of gas.
It is important to note that gas prices rose sharply at a time when the EU adopted a very controversial plan to reduce gas consumption by 15% over the coming winter. In order to simply adopt at least some kind of plan, it was necessary to make an exception for a number of countries, and at least one member of the European Union, Hungary, openly opposed any bans at all. This was expected, given that Budapest is increasingly getting out of the so-called European unity, and the Hungarian Foreign Minister recently visited Moscow, where he agreed to increase Russian gas supplies to Hungary.
The current confrontation will eventually come down to who is willing to sacrifice more, Russia or the European Union. The fact that the countries of the European Union have not been able to agree on a tough plan, thanks to which it would be possible to significantly reduce gas consumption, suggests that it will be difficult for the EU to fight according to such rules. But perhaps, as many EU members believe, a tough plan is simply impossible. In this case, apparently, when the situation escalates to the limit, we will again see how each of the countries of the European Union will save itself. After all, we observed the same thing at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, when countries were chasing masks, respirators and various medical materials. It is clear that the current energy crisis may be much more dangerous.
Winter is inexorably approaching, and energy will be needed both for European industry and for heating residential buildings. European Union politicians are already warning that restrictions will have to be imposed on businesses, factories and even households.
Maybe it is not clear to someone in Europe yet, but the front of the struggle with Russia is opening, on which they will not fight with weapons at all. And now Russia hopes most of all that this winter European houses and apartments will be cold — too cold for Europeans to continue to support the official policy of supporting Ukraine.
After all, so far the Europeans have only faced inflation, which is growing more and more. So far, they have not felt any other negative consequences, such as, for example, the recession. (And it will almost certainly start both in Europe and in many other countries if central banks continue to sharply raise interest rates.) In the worst case, next winter Europe will lack not only energy, but also economic activity - these things, of course, are closely linked, and then people will soon lose their jobs, and it will be even more difficult for them to pay for the deficit.
Russian columnist Sergei Savchuk published a material on the pages of the Russian news agency RIA Novosti today under the symbolic title: "Europe has handed Russia a superweapon against itself." In the article, he writes that all the gas supply cuts are the result of problems with the delivery and return of the turbine. He himself, of course, does not believe this, but this is the official position of Russia. He further notes that Europe has become a hostage of the vassal policy towards the United States.
It was interesting to find out the solution he offers. The observer writes about the need to open the Nord Stream — 2. It has already been completed, and its capacity reaches 55 billion cubic meters. With one political decision, Europe could end the agony that is getting heavier. It is clear that this would be, as the German Economy Minister Robert Habeck put it, the surrender of Europe.
Of course, Europe found itself in a very difficult situation. But it cannot be said that she will be punished in any case, because in such a position she could accept her fate. No, Europe, as trumpeted by the Russian state media, should just... capitulate.
Will she go for it? Of course, Europe does not want to. Just as Ukraine does not want to stop its own agony, and until recently it still had such an opportunity. At some point, Kiev just needed to clearly and loudly reject the possibility of joining NATO, and today it is no longer known whether this will help…
Savchuk concludes the material with a passage: "You and I are the audience of a unique historical performance. A large-scale farce is unfolding before our eyes, in which Russophobic politicians demand that their own citizens wash less, do not turn on air conditioners in the midst of the July heat, switch from cars to bicycles and harm Russia in any similar way. The insoluble contradiction of desires and reality is that there is nothing to replace Russian energy carriers with."
Yes, for many years they have been saying that one day Russia could "cut off" gas for Europe. Then why didn't Europe prepare for such an option in time? Because in economic terms it was simply impossible. All European competitiveness is based, or was based, on the purchase of cheap Russian gas. Therefore, a cold shower is not the worst thing that awaits Europe in the near future. If the current confrontation drags on, and, apparently, it will, Europe will face imminent economic degradation, which will take the form not of a crisis, but of a permanent state. After all, if Europe loses what it has always had, other regions of the world will quickly fill the vacuum, and one day, when Europe does find some solution to its energy problems, it will be too late.
Saving every available cubic meter of gas now can only mitigate the consequences that will affect the winter, but they will still be severe. Meanwhile, news is coming that the German Hanover has cut off the supply of hot water to all public buildings due to the growing shortage of energy carriers.
The conflict between Washington and Moscow has clearly never stopped since their troops met in Berlin around this time in 1945. We have seen and known everything for more than 70 years, and during this time we have managed to understand that this is not our conflict. Europe, when it had a chance, and it did, should have become a powerful power, the center, not the West. It is known what the West is, what the East is, and someone had to stand in between so that the situation would not escalate too much. But it didn't happen.
The situation is such that the most important question becomes "What to do?". But now is also a good time to think about what could have been done earlier to overcome this crisis? It was necessary to take decisive political steps to unravel the US-Russian conflict in Ukraine, which had been brewing since the winter of 2013. When Victoria Nuland appeared on the Maidan, and then in a telephone conversation with the American ambassador in Kiev uttered the sacramental phrase "To hell with the EU!", it was necessary to react immediately. Now it turns out that her "prophecy" is coming true.
