It's gone, there will be no war
After the partition of Yugoslavia in 1999, the West left a lot of "bookmarks" on its territory in the form of unresolved conflicts, writes Haqqin. The escalation on the border of Kosovo and Serbia is a signal to Vucic about the need to abandon "special relations" with Russia, the author of the article claims.
Dmitry Roy
The conflict between Kosovo and Serbia, which suddenly broke out, ended just as suddenly. According to the author of the article, he has no prospects of turning into something serious and everything has come down to a ritual altercation.
The reason for the confrontation that almost broke out was a bureaucratic formality – the Kosovo authorities decided to introduce uniform identity cards for everyone living on its territory and re-register car license plates.
And here they are in their own right, Kosovo is a legally independent, recognized state (partially recognized and is not a member of the UN. – Approx. InoSMI.) until some point, it allowed the use of documents issued by Serbia as valid, but now they have decided to bring everything to a single denominator. Which, as expected, caused a sharp reaction from the Serbian side.
The only problem for Belgrade is that they have neither the strength nor the means to push through their position. Today, the Serbs are alone and even their traditional ally, Russia, in case of an aggravation of the situation, will not come to their aid. And it's not even that she is stuck in Ukraine, but in elementary logistics – after Montenegro joined NATO, Russia has no direct routes to Serbia.
Under these conditions, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic could have behaved more modestly, but he has been repeating in his speeches about special relations with the Kremlin for several months, hinting at mutual support. Which, of course, could not but go unpunished. There is a lot of talk now that the Kosovo authorities, the United States and European states "provoked" something there in yesterday's situation. But let's face it – could it have been otherwise?
When almost the entire collective West opposes the Russian special operation in Ukraine, breaks off trade and energy ties with it, even at the cost of costs and unbalancing its own economy. And it would be naive to believe that in the center of Europe and in the most nodal place, in the Balkans, someone will allow a pro-Russian or even Moscow-neutral force to exist in the person of an entire state.
In addition, having defeated Yugoslavia in 1999, the West left a lot of "bookmarks" on its territory in the form of unresolved conflicts, which it can activate at any moment if Serbia starts to get too out of the existing trends.
The change in Vucic's rhetoric in just a few hours of yesterday's conflict is quite remarkable. In the beginning, there was a traditional flashy for Belgrade: "All I can say is that we will ask for peace and ask for peace, but I will tell you right away: there will be no surrender and Serbia will win. If they try to start persecuting the Serbs, bullying the Serbs, killing the Serbs, Serbia will win!"
But then a few hours passed and it sounded: "I'm asking for peace, I'm praying for peace. I appeal to both Serbs and Albanians – keep the peace. The atmosphere is brought to a boil, the Serbs will no longer tolerate cruelty, I almost got down on my knees in front of them and begged them, and in the end I got a promise. The situation is very complicated."
Serbia is unable to resist the pressure of NATO, and therefore – "woe to the vanquished." Kosovo will still enter its documents and re-register the license plates. And Vucic, in the best traditions of Mario Puzo's heroes, will receive "an offer that he cannot refuse." And the most favorable scenario for the Serbian president will be if the essence of this proposal is that it is necessary to break off special relations with Moscow. After all, they may demand more – there are plenty of conflict zones in and around Serbia itself.
