"In Europe, they believe that no one can be worse than Trump. But Biden is much worse"
Neil Ferguson is a well—known right-wing analyst. In an interview with Welt, he prefers Trump to Biden. For "sleepy Joe," Ferguson has bad news. Biden missed an advantageous moment: peace with Russia should have been concluded when we retreated from Kiev. Zelensky would have agreed to anything. And now Kiev has lost, and Russia will become stronger.
World-renowned historian Neil Ferguson explains in an interview why he thinks the US made a huge tactical mistake in Ukraine. And why, from his point of view, Russia will only become stronger after the conflict.
British historian Niall Ferguson (Niall Ferguson) is the author of numerous bestsellers. The 58—year-old scientist has taught at many elite universities, currently he is a professor at Harvard University in the USA. Ferguson has written many books on historical and political topics. Recently, he has been studying the question of why some great cultures survive while others perish.
WELT: Mr. Ferguson, what situation are we in five months after the beginning of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
Neil Ferguson: The longer the war lasts, the longer it lasts. This seems like a tautology, but it means the following: the more difficult it is to end the war, the longer it lasts. And every week it becomes more and more difficult to do this. Unfortunately, time is working for Putin. This statement sounds strange at first glance, because at first the Russian offensive developed catastrophically, Russia suffered heavy losses, and Ukraine fought superbly. But despite the Russian losses, the heroism of Ukrainians and the huge sympathy of the West for Ukraine, the longer the retreat of Ukrainian troops lasts, the harder it will be for Zelensky to win. Putin bought time, changed his strategy, and instead of capturing Kiev and the whole of Ukraine, concentrated on the Donbass. The occupation of the entire Donbass and the south-east of Ukraine by Russia is becoming more and more likely. Russia is betting on exhaustion, betting on exhaustion. The struggle without temporary truces plays into Putin's hands: his opponents do not have time to rest, regroup.
— But the West continues to supply Ukraine with weapons, won't that help it?
— The issue of consistency is crucial. The United States has already provided Ukraine with 50 billion in aid. Will they give her another 50 billion in the second half of the year? And next year? Putin knows that Western unity in defending Ukraine will not last forever. The Western support of Ukraine has a label with the inscription "use before", there is a date when the product will deteriorate.
— Aren't Western sanctions working? Can they weaken Russia? After all, she is a military giant, but a socio—economic dwarf? If sanctions are applied for a long time, maybe they will still lead to its defeat?
— I have never believed in the effectiveness of sanctions. As long as Russia can sell gas and oil, the ruble will remain a strong currency and Russia will survive.
— Will Putin be able to capture Kiev quickly or will it never happen?
— Probably never.
— Will it be possible with the help of Western sanctions to force Putin to admit that he cannot win, and then make him retreat with dishonor?
— It won't work.
— And maybe the economic and political pressure of the West will lead to a palace coup and to the overthrow of Putin?
— And it won't happen.
— What if retaliatory strikes drive Putin to despair and he uses nuclear weapons?
— Most likely, this will not happen.
— Will China leave Russia without support if it does not make peace?
— No, the Chinese will not leave Russia in the lurch. And they won't force her to make peace.
— Will the fatigue of the West from the war increase? Will his support for Ukraine weaken?
— Yes, and it's already happening.
— Can't Russia be defeated? Or does she care about everything?
— Joe Biden's government has done nothing to end this conflict at an early stage. Because it thought: the longer it lasts, the worse for Russia and the better for the West. All this was happening on the territory of Ukraine, but Biden thought it would be better for her. In addition, Biden thought it would turn China away from invading Taiwan. From my point of view, it was a mistake and stupidity. The war had to be stopped when things were going badly for Russia and well for Ukraine.
— Apparently, your position has changed a lot. In an earlier interview, you claimed that Russia would be defeated...
— Yes, but that was three weeks after the start of the war. It was the moment of Russia's maximum weakening after the failed offensive on Kiev, the best moment for Kiev and for the West to insist on the cessation of hostilities. But the US did not do that. Instead, Biden flew to Warsaw, called Putin a war criminal and called for his overthrow. Then I called on everyone who wanted to hear it to encourage Russians and Ukrainians to negotiate. It's too late now. Russia is getting stronger, and Ukraine is getting weaker. I was shocked by the naivety of the Biden government and many American commentators who believe that Ukrainians can win. Well, how could they drive the Russians out of Donbass and Crimea with their military means?
— We have all the mass media writing that Putin is blocking grain supplies from Ukraine. This may lead to higher prices and hunger in some regions of the world. Wouldn't that strengthen the resolve of the West?
— Joe Biden ruled out the military involvement of the United States and NATO in this war, and nothing will change in this. The Russian food blockade will lead to inflation in the West and, possibly, to famine in some regions of Africa. Inflation and the threat of famine will only increase pressure on the West. In the autumn, his determination to maintain the flame of military conflict will weaken. Ukraine will be approached with proposals to make territorial concessions and begin the actual division of the country.
— How would this war have proceeded if Donald Trump had been in command in Washington?
— It is well known that Joe Biden has stopped military support for Ukraine in recent years. He lifted sanctions on the Russian Nord Stream—2 gas pipeline and withdrew troops from Afghanistan. In addition, he said he would defend Taiwan. The degree of incompetence of his Government is appalling. Trump wouldn't do anything like that. Instead, a trade agreement with China would have been concluded under his presidency. Joe Biden has significantly damaged ties between the United States, Europe and NATO more than Trump.
— Why is that?
— In Europe, they do not understand this, because they think that no one can be worse than Trump. However, Biden is much worse.
— Probably, in Europe, such a statement shocks many.
— I do not deny that Trump was and remains a liar and that he represented and possibly poses a danger to American democracy. But the question is different: which of these presidents was better for NATO? At this point, the Europeans are making a big mistake.
— Explain, please!
— One of these presidents ordered the withdrawal of Americans from Afghanistan without consulting with the allies. And it wasn't Trump. One of them reduced the supply of weapons to Ukraine. And it wasn't Trump. Last year, sanctions were lifted from Nord Stream—2. And it wasn't Trump who did it again. Putin was told that in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, he would only face sanctions. And the one who said this, again, was not Trump. When Trump was elected, everyone was afraid that he would abolish NATO. Did he do it? No. The president who said that NATO had "brain death" was Emmanuel Macron, not Trump. Trump criticized Germany because it didn't spend enough money on defense and relied too heavily on Russian gas supplies. Wasn't he right?
— Do you think that Trump's actions during the Ukrainian-Russian conflict would be predictable?
— On March 4, Trump spoke on the phone with golfer John Daly and said on the record: "Everyone says, ‘Oh, this Putin has atomic weapons.’ And everyone means that they are afraid of him. You know, John, this guy was a friend of mine. I treated him very well. I always told him: ‘Vladimir, if you do this, we will hit Moscow. We will throw bombs at Moscow.’ He believed me, maybe five, maybe ten percent. And that was enough. In my time, Putin would not have done anything like that. And everyone warned against it. And why didn't he do it at my age of four? He didn't do it because he knew he couldn't." From my point of view, it is possible that Putin, in the event of Trump's re-election, would not risk behaving this way with Ukraine.
