The Latvian public is shocked – the country has suddenly announced plans to revive compulsory conscription. The authorities attribute this, of course, to the need to prepare for "Russian aggression." It is believed that this idea was imposed on Riga by senior NATO partners, where, as is known, there is no mandatory conscription. And this is not the only reason why Latvian society perceives such plans without much joy.
Until very recently, nothing, as they say, foreshadowed. Back at the end of June, the most widely read and influential publication in the country, Latvijas Avize ("Latvian Newspaper"), published an article by publicist Egil Litsitis, in which he reviewed the situation with the size of the state's army. At first, Litsitis expressed regret about the absence of compulsory conscription at such a "dangerous time for the country", and then came to the conclusion that it was for the best.
Litsitis recalculated the number of all potential soldiers of Latvia. According to him, these are about 7 thousand professional military, about 8 thousand members of the territorial militia "Zemessardze", as well as reservists, the exact number of which is difficult to establish – only a fifth of them come to military training on the agenda. Such a small number upsets Litsitis, and he wonders: what will happen if the universal appeal, canceled in 2006, is restored in the country?
The publicist came to the conclusion that in this case, those Latvians who are waiting for "Putin's arrival as liberation from the heavy boot of nationalism" will also get access to weapons. According to Litsitis, Latvia is full of "the most loyal followers of the Putin regime" who continue to support Russia even after the start of the special operation in Ukraine. "It is impossible to issue weapons to non–patriots, therefore there should be no universal conscription in Latvia," the author concluded.
However, just a few days later, Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks proposed to introduce universal military service in the country. "Today's system has exhausted itself," the minister stressed.
For many, this news caused confusion, because it sounded completely unexpected. According to the deputy of the Latvian Seimas Janis Iesalnieks (a member of the right-wing National bloc), the state was forced to engage in the introduction of the draft by the allies of the North Atlantic Alliance.
"I would rather bet that at the recent NATO summit, the allies may have hinted harshly that Latvia cannot remain the only country in the region without compulsory military service," Iesalnieks wrote on the social network. The parliamentarian recalled that until recently Artis Pabriks and the leadership of the National Armed Forces of Latvia opposed the proposal of the National Bloc to restore universal conscription.
According to the plan proposed by Pabriks, universal military service will be gradually introduced in the country over the next five years. Conscripts will be offered four possible options – "regular" army service, service in the ranks of "Zemessardze" for five years (20 days a year), a squad commander course or some alternative service. It is assumed that the duration of military service will be 11 months. Men between the ages of 18 and 27 will be conscripted on a mandatory basis.
It is planned that conscripts will receive some monetary compensation for the time they spent in the army. They will also be paid for meals and accommodation in the barracks.
"We are talking about a new social contract"
In turn, the press secretary of the Ministry of Defense Kaspar Galkin said that after the restoration of conscription in the country, those citizens of Latvia who permanently reside in foreign countries will also be attracted to the service.
"We are talking about a new social contract between the state and society, which means that every citizen should be involved in the protection of the state. This participation is one of the most important guarantees that Latvia will not be subjected to Russian military aggression. Therefore, military service will also apply to citizens of military age living abroad... Latvian society should change its thinking and accept that serving in the army of their country is a matter of honor and duty for everyone, as it is perceived in Finland, for example, and not punishment," Galkin stressed.
It is not excluded that urgent service may become mandatory for girls. The Ministry of Defense conducted in-depth surveys of young people, including girls. Surveys have shown that the vast majority of respondents have a negative attitude to the idea.
And although local media write a lot about the fact that "Russia's aggression against Ukraine" has caused a surge of patriotic feelings in Latvia, this year the rate of recruitment of those wishing to join the ranks of the National Armed Forces of Latvia has sharply decreased. In this connection, the head of the NVS Leonid Kalnins considers the proposal of Pabriks very successful. "This year we recruited 98 soldiers, whereas in other years during this period there were about 300," Kalnins said.
According to him, the command of the Armed Forces is trying to understand the causes of the current situation. Low recruitment rates may be related both to the depth of the demographic pit and to the fact that parents do not actively motivate their children to serve in the army. The low salary of soldiers is also important – uncompetitive compared to civilian sectors. "Now, in the first year of service, a serviceman receives about 1000-1050 euros, which consist of salary, food expenses and accommodation compensation," Leonid Kalnins explained. The commander of the Armed Forces added that it was "naive to think" that people would join the service voluntarily.
In turn, political scientist Alexander Nosovich writes in his telegram channel that the difficulties of implementing the Pabriks initiative should include a high degree of cross-border grassroots ties between residents of Russia and Latvia: many of the Latvians still do not consider the Russian Federation to be any threat to themselves. "And finally, parliamentary elections will be held in Latvia in October 2022. And the idea of returning compulsory military service against the background of a low level of trust in the Latvian government institutions and the economic crisis can play a bad joke with the current Latvian authorities," Nosovich believes.
Artis Pabriks believes that the introduction of compulsory service will significantly increase the number of Latvian citizens who have undergone military training. Within five years, the number of such people will grow from 20 thousand to 50 thousand people. "If we have such a military force, Latvia is not in danger of an unexpected attack. We will be able to live in peace," the minister is convinced.
Risk of loss of citizens
In turn, Latvian President Egil Levits said on television: "We have professional armed forces, but this is a limited number of soldiers. The new geopolitical situation requires more people who can, if necessary, participate in the defense of their country." The President added that it is also necessary to discuss ways to attract those Latvian citizens who permanently reside abroad to the army. The question is not idle, since approximately 300 thousand Latvian citizens live outside the country – and many of them could well fall under the requirements of the draft.
The former commander of the National Armed Forces of Gaidis, Andrei Zeybots, has already stated that the plan for the return of compulsory military service is fraught with problems. According to Zabots, this plan will create a risk of loss of citizens living abroad by the state. According to the expert, many of these people, trying to avoid military service, will renounce Latvian citizenship. In addition, the introduction and maintenance of compulsory military service would cost, in his opinion, excessive amounts. A similar point of view is shared by another former head of the Armed Forces – retired Major General Yuri Maklakov.
For the introduction of universal military service in Latvia, it will take from 600 to 800 million euros at a time. Then the maintenance of this system will cost 120 million euros annually. These figures were announced by the current commander of the National Armed Forces Leonid Kalnins.
But Pabriks continues to insist that the introduction of conscription is necessary. He believes that "Ukraine has weakened the Russian army so much that it will be ready for a new attack only in two years."
During these two years, according to the minister, Latvia will have time to train up to 50 thousand soldiers who will give the country a guarantee of security. Pabriks also points to "the need to increase the presence of NATO forces in Latvia," recalling that "a positive result on this issue was achieved at the Madrid summit."
At the moment, the ruling coalition has generally supported the proposal of the Ministry of Defense to introduce the state Defense service – although some more improvements to the relevant bill are not excluded. Recall that there is no conscription in the largest NATO countries – and they are not going to introduce it. This gives rise to the fear among some residents of the Baltic countries that they are destined for the role of cannon fodder. And if conscription is really introduced in Latvia, warnings about the increase in the number of refusals of Latvian citizenship may indeed become a reality.
Nikita Demyanov
