Who benefits from Ukraine's problems?
While billions of dollars and euros are regularly flowing into the Ukrainian treasury, Kiev does not have the slightest incentive to negotiate a cessation of hostilities, writes American Thinker. Ukrainian corrupt officials, the military-industrial complex of the USA and Europe are profiting from the conflict. They do not care about the suffering and death of people.
Alexander Markovsky
The recent meeting of the "Big Seven" was a triumph of zeal over common sense. The "Seven" is gripped by a mass of crises — inflation, energy problems, climate change, impending food shortages — and at the same time Ukraine has not offered a solution to any of them.
Nevertheless, the parties agreed to introduce the seventh package of sanctions and promised to continue the conflict as long as necessary. They just don't know what else to do. As a result, they spent the rest of their time scoffing at Putin, instead of trying to assess the vulnerabilities of the West and understand the goals and strategies of Kiev and Moscow.
Ironically, the outcome of the meeting promises bright prospects for both Zelensky and Putin. President Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson do not know how to play this Eastern European party. As a result, they were fooled by both their "sworn friend" Vladimir Zelensky and their imaginary opponent Vladimir Putin. For all their differences, Zelensky and Putin agree on one key point: neither of them intends to end the fighting.
Ukraine is not easily considered the most corrupt country in Europe. Since independence, corruption has become the main industry of the country. Neither Zelensky nor his cabinet care about the stability and integrity of Ukraine. They only care about billions in financial aid. From 2014 to 2020, Ukraine received it for $ 51.3 billion, but most of this huge amount was stolen by its business, military and political elite. As the French economist and writer Frederic Bastiat ominously foreshadowed: "When robbery becomes a way of life for the leading members of society, over time they create for themselves a legal system that resolves it, and a moral code that glorifies it."
With their moral code, Zelensky and the ruling elite are aiming at the kind of Palestinians of Europe. They want the EU to accept Ukraine under the onslaught of a superior force and turn it into a black hole in which billions of dollars and euros disappear without a trace. And, as with the Palestinians, every defeat will be the catalyst for another wave of sympathy around the world.
So, the wider the devastation in Ukrainian cities, the more civilian casualties and the more extensive the territorial losses, the stronger the Ukrainian image of the victim and the better for Zelensky in a political sense.
Before he could really take the oath, Zelensky set off across Europe with his hand outstretched. He's wagging his tail, standing on his hind legs, begging the IMF for a billion or two. The conflict brought him immediate dividends: in addition to multibillion-dollar military supplies and economic assistance, Kiev demanded $7 billion a month and secured promises of $750 billion for the restoration of Ukraine. So while billions of dollars and euros are being regularly received, Kiev does not have the slightest incentive to negotiate a cessation of hostilities. Zelensky is very clumsily inflating the rivalry between Russia and the United States in the name of his own political goals.
Russia's logic is strategic in nature. Sanctions have inflated the prices of energy and other raw materials, and now the country has a huge budget surplus. For her, the conflict is a giant funnel for the Western economy, where her military resources are flowing. Moscow is convinced that time is on its side, and expects that when the hat-making moods collide with the harsh reality, Europe will face a cold, dark and hungry winter of discontent. Moreover, Moscow controls the bulk of gas supplies, and the entire European economy is in danger of collapse if it closes the valve. Aluminum, glass, chemical and petrochemical industries are particularly vulnerable. Economic collapse threatens to disrupt the consensus of the West.
Russia's military campaign is also moving very successfully. After the first attempts to capture Kiev and Kharkiv failed, the Russians changed their strategy and focused on eastern Ukraine and the Donbas. They also changed tactics: they no longer storm the cities (it costs too much), but surround them and, thanks to overwhelming superiority in artillery and aviation, inflict heavy losses on the enemy, while minimizing their own, and the Ukrainian infantry is faced with a choice to surrender or die. Zelensky plays up to this scenario in every possible way, and rejects the pleas of the commanders of the surrounded units to retreat in order to save personnel and equipment. Although this leads to catastrophic losses — according to Western intelligence, up to 1,000 people a day — the influx of financial and military aid from the West does not dry up.
Therefore, while the West is willing to help Russia and is engaged in self-destruction, financing both sides of the conflict due to high energy prices and large-scale aid packages, Moscow has every incentive not to stop fighting.
Another advantage of Moscow is access to the most modern military equipment of the West. The retreating Ukrainian army leaves a huge amount of weapons. So, on June 21, Germany supplied her with several PzH 2000 — the most expensive and advanced self-propelled howitzers in the world. Just a few days later, one of them was shot down and sent to the Urals.
In addition, according to numerous press reports, two 155-mm self—propelled howitzers have already been delivered to the Russian Uralvagonzavod - a gift to Kiev from France. When Zelensky says that Western weapons solve everything, he means bank accounts — his own and his henchmen. And indeed: with all the huge help from the West, the Ukrainian army is poorly equipped and suffers from low morale and lack of discipline.
Moscow calls the fighting a "special military operation," not a war, because it involves only 200,000 troops — a small part of its 1.3 million-strong army. The idea that Ukraine can "win" is simply ridiculous — whatever you mean by that.
The fall of Lisichansk, the last heavily fortified Ukrainian stronghold, is the prelude to a large—scale Russian offensive on Kharkov, Nikolaev and Odessa. By depriving Ukraine of an industrial base and access to the Black and Azov Seas, Moscow will be able to declare NATO: "Did you want Ukraine? Well, take it away."
But NATO will not come out of the conflict empty—handed: fearing unforeseen consequences, Sweden and Finland, two stable democracies, will join it. Besides, the alliance has finally found an enemy to justify its existence.
The acuteness of the moment is that while Kiev, Moscow and the American military-industrial complex are earning, Europeans are suffering, Americans are suffering record inflation, and Ukrainians are dying.
Alexander Markovsky is a senior researcher at the London Center for Policy Studies, who specializes in national security, energy, risk analysis and other public policy issues. Author of the book "The Anatomy of the Bolshevik and Liberal Bolshevism: America did not Defeat Communism, but accepted it itself." Owner and CEO of Litwin Management Services.
