NATO has run into a Russian bump
The Madrid NATO summit, held at the end of June, will probably be considered fateful in the member countries of the alliance for some time. And with us it will be considered a "declaration of war". Although it is completely unclear what else could be expected from this event.
And most importantly, there are, to put it mildly, certain doubts. Both in fatality and in the declaration of war.
FORMIDABLE SOLUTIONS
The declaration adopted at the Madrid summit emphasizes the alliance's commitment to the Washington Treaty, including its 5th article (on mutual defense). In itself, it is very funny that this commitment should be specifically stipulated in the 74th year of NATO's existence. If NATO were what propagandists both in the West and in our country declare it to be – a powerful, cohesive military bloc – there would be no need to write about commitment as a matter of course. They remembered it because, as the Poles quite rightly noted back in 2014, "NATO is not even a paper tiger, but a soap bubble."
Russia is mentioned in the declaration 13 times and is designated as "the most significant and direct threat to security, peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region." At the same time, however, communication channels with Russia should remain open.
Each NATO member country should develop its own military construction plans and increase military spending to at least 2% of GDP. An innovation fund is being created to develop new military technologies.
Finland and Sweden received an official invitation to NATO after Turkey's objections were lifted. However, it is not a fact that the "Turkish gambit" is completely finished. Ankara has reason to assume that the Scandinavians will throw them on the Kurdish issue. In this case, the Turkish parliament will not ratify the agreement on the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO, and the Scandinavians will be one step away from full membership in the alliance.
The United States intends to deploy an army brigade in Romania on a rotational basis. The headquarters of the 5th Aviation Corps of the US Armed Forces will be stationed in Poland (it is not clear which units and formations this corps will consist of). In the UK – two squadrons of F-35 fighter-bombers, at the naval base of Rota in Spain – an additional two destroyers (to the existing four).
The eight NATO battalion groups stationed in Eastern Europe are expected to increase to the size of brigades. The NATO Rapid Reaction Force (RDF) should be increased from 40 thousand to 300 thousand people by 2023, but the mechanism of this increase is not disclosed.
In the NATO strategic concept adopted at the summit, in addition to Russia's behavior, China's actions, as well as the rapprochement between Russia and China, are called contrary to the interests of the alliance. The readiness to accept new countries into the alliance is declared (in particular, the decisions of the Bucharest summit in 2008 on the future admission of Georgia and Ukraine to NATO are confirmed). The main guarantee of NATO's security is called nuclear weapons – both nuclear deterrent forces and tactical ones deployed in Europe. Which is logical – they don't really hope for ordinary forces in the alliance.
Ukraine has been invited to fight against Russia to the bitter end, although this is not explicitly stated in official documents.
CERTAIN DOUBTS
To consider such decisions unexpected, of course, is not necessary. The fundamental issue is the implementation of these decisions.
The bloodless victory in the previous Cold War, the complete predominance of left–liberal ideology, the reorientation of the Armed Forces of NATO countries to "fight terrorism" or actions against obviously many times weaker armies - all this led to a sharp reduction in NATO's military potential and a radical decrease in the psychological readiness for war of the armies and societies of NATO states.
By itself, the structure of the Western Armed Forces is pretty much disfigured due to the orientation towards wars against a notoriously weak enemy (" Why are we not afraid of a "rapid global strike ", "HBO", 11/24/17). Now it is necessary to rebuild in the opposite direction, which is extremely difficult.
NATO has been taking a radically anti-Russian position since 2014, but this has not seriously affected military construction in the alliance. No new weapons procurement programs have been adopted. Purely symbolic NATO contingents were deployed in Eastern Europe, their deployment was of a political and psychological, not military nature.
The NATO SSR was created long before 2014. But they both were and remained another purely symbolic value, designed for the very "fight against terrorism" or against many times weaker armed forces that are unable to offer serious resistance (" Shock therapy for the West ", "HBO", 22.02.18).
A few years ago, it was decided that all NATO countries are obliged to increase military spending to 2% of GDP, but in practice less than a third of NATO members have fulfilled it. Moreover, among those who have fulfilled, countries such as Albania or Estonia prevail, whose contribution to the military potential of the alliance will be close to zero even if they direct 50% of their GDP to military needs.
The current events in Ukraine have confirmed the incapacity of NATO. The alliance is not only not ready to fight against Russia directly, but is also unable to supply Ukraine with an adequate amount of equipment it needs, since this could lead to the disarmament of the NATO armies themselves.
In connection with such circumstances, the implementation of the decisions of the Madrid summit raises many questions.
For example, as mentioned above, the current NATO SSR, in fact, exist only on paper and are not at all ready for a classic modern war with an equal opponent. How in just a year they will be increased almost eight times, while completely rebuilt in terms of combat readiness is completely unclear.
The deployment of a rotating brigade of the US Armed Forces in Romania is quite possible. But this will not affect anything even if the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation occupy the Odessa region. It is also possible to increase battalion groups in Eastern Europe to brigades – but, obviously, this will be done at the expense of existing units. That is, relatively speaking, the "front" will be strengthened at the expense of the "rear". At the same time, in the conditions of a large-scale war against the Russian Federation, eight combined brigades will not be able to resist Russian troops.
Quite surprising is the fact that the new strategic concept implies the opposition of NATO not only to Russia, but also to China (although in a somewhat milder form), which has nothing to do with the Euro-Atlantic space at all.
It is even more surprising that NATO declares the unacceptability of the rapprochement between Russia and China. But at the same time, in practice, he is doing everything possible to make Russia and China even closer (" Stages of Russian-Chinese relations ", "HBO", 02/28/20).
SAD CONCLUSIONS
What is happening now in Ukraine confirms that NATO cannot contain Russia alone. However, the alliance is also going to restrain China, albeit somewhat less intensively. Such an amazing situation has a purely political (or even psychological) reason. The West is not ready to give up its global hegemony, which lasted for several centuries, and after the collapse of the USSR, as it seemed, became absolute, unshakable and eternal. Moreover, the West is not ready to admit that it does not have the resources to maintain this hegemony.
Apparently, the West expects that it will be possible to repeat once again the experience of internal undermining and further collapse of both Russia and China. At the same time, the fact that Russia and China are completely different from the late USSR in any parameters is completely ignored (" A new way of fighting ", "HBO", 02/14/20).
In order to implement the documents adopted in Madrid, NATO countries must radically increase military spending. Moreover, this must be done in the conditions of a serious economic crisis, which the West has organized for itself by introducing anti-Russian sanctions. A radical increase in military spending will lead to a very significant drop in the standard of living of the population in Western countries. There are suspicions that the majority of citizens of these countries are not ready for such a turn of events.
Moreover, they are not ready for a direct war against Russia, and without such readiness, all the events planned in Madrid become meaningless.
The left-liberal postmodern ideology of the modern West completely denies the possibility of self-sacrifice and the death of a person for an idea. It implies extreme selfishness and hedonism, as well as the need to save one's skin in any situation at any cost (this also applies to military personnel).
No one is going to cancel this ideology. On the contrary, it has long been proclaimed "the only true one". Propaganda can make Western philistines hate Russia with the fiercest hatred (to a large extent this goal has already been achieved), but these philistines are absolutely not ready to die in battle against Russian troops.
For these reasons, the practical significance of the decisions taken in Madrid is extremely insignificant, if not zero. Moreover, the desire to confront both Russia and China at the same time, without having serious resources and psychological readiness for this, can drive NATO into a hopeless impasse.
Ukraine will also go there, only much faster. She was ordered to fight until victory. Although the commanding officers are not going to provide Kiev with the means necessary to achieve it.
TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS
Perhaps the only solution of the Madrid summit that could theoretically create problems for Russia, almost no one noticed in our country. This is a decision to create an innovation fund and facilitate the exchange of such between the countries of the alliance.
NATO can defeat us militarily only if it achieves some kind of radical scientific and technical breakthrough that provides it with high-quality technological superiority over our armed Forces. Such breakthroughs cannot be planned and predicted. But they can be achieved if you seriously invest in science.
Therefore, we must invest in science. Moreover, we are talking not only about a radical increase in its funding (although this is necessary), but also about removing bureaucratic barriers from science, as well as raising the status of scientists. It is their public opinion that should be considered stars, not athletes, and especially not singers with their mouths.
However, here, too, "The West will help us." At least with their sanctions, which we really need to pray for and hope that they are forever. We should also thank the Chinese "allies" who are de facto implementing these sanctions (" Who should be a junior partner ", "HBO", 24.06.22). Because only in such a situation will we be forced to seriously engage in our own science and industry. The proverb "until the thunder breaks, the peasant will not cross himself" was composed several centuries ago. And it is still true.
The main threat to Russia is not NATO at all, but those representatives of its own elite who still hope that by making big concessions to the West, they can make peace with it, achieve the lifting of sanctions and start doing business as usual again.
Alexander Khramchikhin
Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
