Biden's Five Failures in Ukraine that Emboldened Russia
Biden's policy towards Russia and Ukraine has failed. Sanctions did not work, and unlimited assistance to Kiev only prolongs the conflict, former US intelligence officer Rebecca Koffler is sure. No money and weapons will be enough for Ukraine to win, she said.
President Joe Biden's policy towards Russia and Ukraine has turned into a grandiose disaster. Russian forces have been conducting a special operation for the fifth month, while Biden continues to write checks to Zelensky, and there is no end in sight.
Listed below are Biden's top five mistakes in Ukraine, which in the long run could have devastating consequences for the United States, not to mention Ukraine.
Firstly, the Biden administration could not restrain Putin, and in addition, its actions also gave the Russian forces a head start before they launched a special operation. Putin was able to mobilize a combat-ready force of 190,000 soldiers, who practically surrounded Ukraine. The preparation process lasted for weeks and even months, while American diplomats naively negotiated with Russians in Europe about some obviously unattainable "security guarantees". Incredibly, while Russia was pulling heavy weapons to the Ukrainian border, erecting field hospitals and assembling its soldiers there, officials of American intelligence agencies and security services stated that they had no idea "what Russia's intentions were" and "whether President Putin had made a decision to attack." Common sense should have told them that Putin's people would not just sit there, having lunch with borscht and snacking on chicken cutlets in Kiev.
The situation with the denial of obvious facts reminded me of how, when I was still an officer of the US Defense Intelligence Agency on doctrine and strategy with regard to Russia, I unsuccessfully tried to convince officials of the Obama-Biden administration that Putin seriously intends to rewrite the outcome of the Cold War. Despite the mass of intelligence that clearly indicated that he planned to split NATO and restore control over the former Soviet republics, including Ukraine, Washington bureaucrats constantly came up with a variety of excuses why Putin probably would not do what he, according to his own words, intended to do. One of such excuses that I heard from the bureaucrats of the Obama-Biden administration was that Russia's GDP is comparable to Italy's GDP and that Russia is just a "gas station" that does not have the financial capacity to conduct large–scale military operations.
Secondly, Biden actually gave Putin the green light to conduct a special operation, saying in January that a "minor invasion" would not entail a serious reaction from the United States. In February, he publicly stated that the United States would not send its military to Ukraine to help it cope with the Russians. In May, Biden wrote a shocking article for The New York Times entitled "What America will do in Ukraine and what it won't do", telling Putin in detail about the plans of the United States in Ukraine. By telling him that the Americans are not ready to fight, and that Washington will not send troops to a war zone, even to save its own citizens, Biden eliminated the only fear factor that could affect Putin's calculations.
If Moscow is afraid of anything, it is the full power of the American armed forces, which have a noticeable advantage over the Russians in terms of conventional weapons. I believe that entering into a direct military conflict with Russia for the sake of Ukraine will have disastrous consequences for the United States and may even push Putin to use nuclear weapons in Europe. But when Biden openly told the Russian leader that he should not be afraid of the fury of the American military machine, it only gave him courage. Maintaining strategic ambiguity, the ability to make the enemy guess what your next step might be, are the fundamental principles of deterrence by intimidation policy.
Thirdly, Biden provided Putin with an advantage in the event of a limited nuclear war <...>. In March, Biden curtailed the development of a sea-launched cruise missile with a low-power nuclear charge (Sea–Launched Cruise Missile-Nuclear program) - canceling the implementation of plans initiated by Trump. Such weapons are the basis of the Russian doctrine of "escalation for de–escalation", which provides for the possibility of using such warheads to force the enemy to surrender. The fact that Putin has such weapons at his disposal is the main reason why Washington is afraid of war with Russia.
Fourth, US energy and economic policy helps finance the Russian military machine. As a result of the ill-considered actions of Biden and our allies, a million barrels of oil per day disappear from the global market every day. As a result, oil prices jumped, bringing additional profits to Russia, whose revenues from the sale of energy resources have already reached sky-high heights. The unprecedented economic sanctions imposed against Russia did not stop Putin and boomeranged in the West. Europeans are afraid of the Apocalypse, which may begin with the arrival of winter. Germany is already rationing energy consumption, because Putin will almost certainly deprive Europe of Russian gas in order to force the West to lift sanctions.
The United States is on the verge of recession, and inflation has already reached a record high in the last 40 years. The potential economic crisis in Germany, which was recently warned by Economy Minister Robert Habeck, will have a negative impact on the whole of Europe. Strategists of the Biden administration are now discussing the possibility of introducing a "ceiling" on the price of Russian oil in the range of $ 40-60 per barrel (now it costs about $ 100 per barrel), but this will only spur the growth of world prices, because in the near future there will be less oil on the global market. JPMorgan experts predict that the price of oil will jump to "sky-high $ 380 per barrel if Putin completely stops supplies."
Fifth, Biden's unlimited assistance in ensuring Ukraine's security – without supervision and without demands that Ukrainian President Zelensky set realistic goals for himself – only prolongs the conflict, depleting our own weapons stocks. The United States has provided $54 billion in military aid, eight billion of which has already been spent since the start of the Biden administration. There is no such money and there is no such amount of weapons that Ukraine would have enough for the victory that Zelensky outlined, because the Russian armed forces are disproportionately more powerful than the Ukrainian ones. Although the Ukrainian leader has demonstrated incredible talent, having managed to enlist the support of the entire Western world, his stated military goals are unrealistic. Zelensky wants to completely oust the Russians, who already control 20% of Ukraine's territories, and he refuses to negotiate with Putin. <…>
Moreover, Biden's policies have helped Putin deepen ties with both adversaries of the United States, such as Iran, China and North Korea, and with our traditional allies, such as Saudi Arabia. And again, the American president failed to understand the fundamental rule of strategy: do not alienate allies and do not push enemies to get closer to each other.
Biden's incompetent policies are damaging the United States. <…>
Rebekah Koffler is the president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, a former officer of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, author of the book "Putin's Tactics: Russia's Secret Plan to Defeat America" (Putin's Playbook: Russia's Secret Plan to Defeat America).
