In the third issue of the magazine "Arms Export" for 2022, an article was publishedMammad Velimamedova, dedicated to the relations between Armenia and Turkey after the Second Karabakh War. The bmpd blog offers readers the text of the article.
The Second Karabakh War and the crushing defeat of Armenia in it created a new geostrategic situation in the region. There is an increase in the role and influence of Turkey with a decrease in the influence of Russia. Ankara's military-political intervention in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has dramatically increased its importance in regional processes. Russia's geopolitical leadership was challenged, to which Moscow could not give an answer. The Russian client and ally lost, and Turkey's ally won a convincing victory [1] . This caused serious damage to Russian interests in Transcaucasia and dramatically increased Ankara's prestige.
At the same time, Turkey began to position itself as a new force in the region. So, on December 11, 2020, an article by Turkish political scientist, chief coordinator of the SETA analytical center Burhanettin Duran appeared in the influential pro-government publication Sabah, in which he notes that one of the main consequences of the Second Karabakh War is that Russia is no longer considered as the sole and main force in the post-Soviet space. Now Moscow must take into account the factor of the Turkish presence in the region, according to Turkey itself. And Russia will find it expedient to agree to be key actors with Turkey in the Caucasus, as in Syria, and to share spheres of influence, Turkish experts believe.
Turkey officially declares that the South Caucasus and Central Asia region is not just a zone of strategic, but vital interests for it. At the same time, Turkey is aware of the fact that such rhetoric is consonant with the one that Russia has promoted throughout recent history, since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But the main thing for Turkey in the history of Nagorno-Karabakh was the experience of an independent operation in which the country did not cooperate with any of the world's leading players. We are talking about interference in a territorial dispute in a region that Russia considered its zone of influence. This monopoly has been broken.
Thus, the main results of the Second Karabakh War were: the military defeat of Armenia and the critical damage to its military potential, the military superiority of Azerbaijan over Armenia, the strengthening of Turkey's influence and weight in the region, the reduction of Russia's weight and influence in the region. The parties to the conflict began to search for their place in this new environment. First of all, this concerns Armenia as a party that has suffered a heavy defeat. Before the start of the EOC, Armenian politicians said that "the armed forces of Armenia are the most combat-ready and intelligent army in the region" (Nikol Pashinyan) and that "a new war will be for new territories" (David Tonoyan). However, the defeat in the war led to a reassessment of its own capabilities and forced Armenia to look for ways to adapt to the changed geostrategic situation in the region.
The new status quo is extremely uncomfortable for Armenia. During the war, control over the Azerbaijani areas around Nagorno-Karabakh and significant territories directly in it were lost. A crushing blow was dealt to Armenia's military potential. If earlier Yerevan linked the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani regions with the determination of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, now it has lost this "trump card".
In the long term, the outcome of the VKV will obviously complicate relations between Moscow and Yerevan. The Armenian society was deeply disappointed by Moscow's neutral position, which contradicted, at least, the spirit of the obligations under the military agreements between the two countries and the Collective Security Treaty. Russia itself, following the results of the war, paradoxically found itself forced to support the government of Nikol Pashinyan in Armenia, previously considered pro-Western in Moscow. The elections held in 2021 confirmed, despite the military defeat, the support of the majority of Armenian society for Pashinyan's course and demonstrated the weakness of pro-Russian elements on the Armenian political scene. Thus, we can say that in moral and political terms, Russia's influence in Armenian society has weakened, and, apparently, sooner or later it will find its political expression [2] .
Even before the start of the war, Nikol Pashinyan made attempts to turn Armenia's foreign policy towards the West. He took an extremely cautious course, not wanting to enter into conflict with Moscow, but still changed the vector of Armenia's foreign policy. At the same time, a special role was assigned to relations with France. After coming to power, Pashinyan and his associates tried to discredit the CSTO by arresting the secretary General of the organization. Then for a year Yerevan blocked the appointment of the current head of the CSTO. After the start of the VKV, Yerevan immediately turned to the United States and France for help. Washington and Paris quickly responded to the call and began actively seeking a cessation of hostilities. But neither the participation of French President Emmanuel Macron nor the participation of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo helped in this. At the same time, Russia's proposals on the conditions for the cessation of hostilities were rejected by Yerevan. Apparently, Armenia hoped to the last that the issue would be resolved with the help of the United States and France.
Only the capture of Shusha by Azerbaijani troops and the threat of the complete loss of Karabakh forced Pashinyan to agree with the Russian proposals, as a result of which the fighting was stopped, and a Russian peacekeeping contingent was introduced into Nagorno-Karabakh.
The defeat in the war and the Statement of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Russian Federation dated November 10, 2020, according to which Armenia pledged to withdraw troops from the areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh, provoked a serious internal political crisis in Armenia. At first it resulted in mass riots and the seizure of the parliament building, after a while the leadership of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Armenia made an unsuccessful attempt to get Pashinyan's resignation. After that, early parliamentary elections were scheduled, which were won by Pashinyan's bloc on June 20, 2021, and he was able to retain power.
All these events forced the Armenian authorities to temporarily abandon the pro-Western path in their policy and completely focus on Moscow. However, after the consolidation of power, Nikol Pashinyan began to cautiously return to this idea. So, in 2021, he turned to Macron with a proposal to deploy a contingent of French troops on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. During his visit to France in 2021, Pashinyan expressed interest in "increasing the presence of France in Armenia."
Today, Armenia is trying not only to build ties with France and the United States, but also to normalize relations with Turkey. The strengthening of Turkey's influence in the region after the WWII played a role in this, as well as, probably, Yerevan's desire to conduct a more balanced foreign policy by establishing Armenian-Turkish relations and minimize its risks in the event of a further decrease in Russia's influence in the region.
It should be noted that the relations between Armenia and Turkey are seriously complicated by the long experience of mutual distrust between the peoples of the two countries, as well as the negative historical legacy from which they failed to free themselves. Since the collapse of the USSR, Ankara and Yerevan have repeatedly attempted diplomatic normalization.
On December 24, 1991, Turkey officially recognized the independence of the Republic of Armenia, but diplomatic relations between the two states were not established. In 1993, in response to the occupation of the Kelbajar region of Azerbaijan, Turkey closed the border with Armenia, stopping road, rail and air traffic. The air border was reopened in 1995. The opening of the land border and the establishment of diplomatic relations were hindered by a number of preconditions put forward by Turkey, in particular, on the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani territories and the rejection of international recognition of the Armenian Genocide.
In the following years, there were initiatives to resume the dialogue of the parties. In April 2005 Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then Prime Minister of Turkey, sent a letter to Armenian President Robert Kocharian, proposing to form a joint commission to analyze the events of 1915. Instead of supporting Erdogan, Kocharyan declared his readiness to start a political dialogue at the highest level to normalize relations.
The parties came closest to a positive breakthrough in relations as a result of a series of negotiations known as "football diplomacy", signing bilateral protocols in Zurich in 2009. But this process did not continue, the ratification of the agreements did not take place. The main reason for the failure was the inability to separate the problems of the past from the current ethnopolitical subjects, among which the Karabakh issue remains in the foreground.
In August 2020, the Armenian leadership unexpectedly turned to the Sevres Peace Treaty of 1920 . In one of his speeches, Nikol Pashinyan stressed that "the Treaty of Sevres, by its 89th article, established and consolidated the indisputable historical connection of the Armenian people with the Armenian Highlands, where the Armenian people were born, lived and created statehood and culture for thousands of years" [3] . Armenian President Armen Sarkissian, in turn, noted that the Sevres Treaty is a legitimate, interstate, and de facto valid document [4] .
According to the aforementioned 89th article of the Sevres Treaty, the delimitation of the border between Turkey and Armenia was left to the discretion of the United States. American President Woodrow Wilson decided that Armenia should receive more than half of the vilayets (provinces) Van and Bitlis, the main part of the Erzrum Vilayet, the eastern part of the Trabzon Vilayet - an area three times larger than the territory of modern Armenia. Armenia was also provided with access to the Black Sea. Thus, the Armenian leadership de facto put forward territorial claims against Turkey.
But after the VKV, the status quo changed. The defeat forced Armenia to moderate its ambitions. The liberation of the Azerbaijani territories around Nagorno-Karabakh also influenced Ankara's position. If Turkey had previously put forward the de-occupation of Azerbaijani lands as a precondition, today it actually makes the normalization process itself dependent on how the dialogue between Yerevan and Baku will progress.
On December 15, 2020, Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia needs to improve relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan and try to find common ground with them.
On January 18, 2021, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu raised the issue of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. According to him, the ceasefire regime remains in Karabakh, which can be attributed to the positive sides of the settlement. At the same time, he added that "if the truce is long-term, Turkey and Azerbaijan can take steps to normalize relations with Armenia." "We will coordinate this process with Azerbaijan," Cavusoglu concluded.
In May 2021, Pashinyan stated that Armenians and Turks are enemies, but this cannot last forever, and even enmity should be kept under control. On August 29, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he "wishes success to the new government of Armenia." Speaking at a meeting of the Armenian government on September 8, Nikol Pashinyan spoke about his readiness to normalize relations with Turkey. The Prime Minister of the Republic particularly stressed that peace and stability in the Caucasus is a long-term priority for Yerevan.
The Armenian-Turkish normalization was discussed again on October 26. During his visit to Azerbaijan, President Erdogan once again outlined the framework within which this process can begin. Together with Ilham Aliyev, he took part in the opening of the Fuzuli International Airport. While talks about unblocking transport communications between Armenia and Azerbaijan have not yet become a reality, Aliyev and Erdogan have laid the "foundation" of the Zangezur corridor. There is still a long way to go before the implementation of this project, many problematic issues have not been resolved, but the Turkish and Azerbaijani leaders are trying to speed up this process.
Assessing Turkey's position on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, it should be noted that Ankara makes the establishment of relations between Yerevan and Baku a prerequisite. After the WCW, the main contentious issues between the two sides are: Armenia's recognition of Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, the resolution of the problem of demarcation and delimitation of the border, the opening of a transport corridor between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu made it clear on December 13, 2021 that a new page had opened in relations between Ankara and Yerevan. Cavusoglu said that Turkey and Armenia will appoint special representatives on normalization of relations on a mutual basis.
On December 15, an experienced diplomat Serdar Kilic was appointed special representative of Turkey for normalization of relations with Armenia. In March 2021, he completed his seven-year stint as the Turkish ambassador to the United States. In Kilic's biography, he served as ambassador to the United States, Japan and Lebanon, headed the department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responsible for relations with NATO, as well as working in the National Security Council of the Republic of Turkey. It is obvious that the issue of normalization of relations with Armenia for Ankara goes beyond the bilateral agenda, it also includes the establishment of relations between Baku and Yerevan. Indirectly, pressure is also being exerted on Moscow, the question of its exclusive position in Transcaucasia is being questioned. Relations with Armenia are also part of the American sector of Turkish foreign policy. It is no coincidence that in this regard, the invitation to the post of special representative of a diplomat who knows the domestic political peculiarities of the United States. The most problematic topic is the question of recognizing the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire as genocide.
After the Turkish leadership decided on the candidacy of its special representative, Yerevan appointed Ruben Rubinyan as his colleague.
When getting acquainted with the biographies of the two special representatives, it is difficult not to notice certain imbalances. Firstly, Kilic is twice as old as Rubinyan, the Turkish diplomat is 63 years old. His track record includes experience as an ambassador to three foreign countries. Rubinyan, having received specialized education in Armenia and abroad (University College London and Jagiellonian University), worked in the Foreign Ministry for less than a year as a deputy minister.
By the end of 2021, Yerevan started talking about the need to resume transport links in the Turkish and Azerbaijani directions. At a government meeting on December 16, Nikol Pashinyan said that an agreement on the construction of the Yeraskh-Julfa- Ordubad-Meghri-Goradiz railway was confirmed during negotiations with Aliyev. He recalled that this agreement was reached with the participation of Russia during a trilateral meeting on November 26 in Sochi. According to Pashinyan, Armenia will get access to Iran and Russia along this road, and Azerbaijan will get access to the Nakhichevan Autonomy. During his speech, Pashinyan also touched upon the issue of the railway line from Gyumri to Kars (Turkey). It needs reconstruction, and with a successful Armenian-Turkish process, this road will also be involved.
Thus, we can note the direct relationship between the appointment of special representatives for the normalization of relations in Turkey and Armenia and the statements of the Armenian leadership on the need to resume transport links with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
On January 14, 2022, a meeting of special representatives - Vice Speaker of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia Ruben Rubinyan and Ambassador Serdar Kilich took place in Moscow.
The event lasted about an hour and a half, after its completion there were no press conferences or other official statements. It is necessary to judge the results of the meeting based only on press releases of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of the two countries.
First of all, it should be noted that the texts published by the foreign ministries are absolutely identical. This means that the parties agreed on the format and content of the messages, and, importantly, agreed not to disrupt the course of negotiations, earning "political points" on each other after the meeting. The press releases mention that the representatives "exchanged preliminary views on the normalization process," and in the next sentence it is noted that the parties agreed to continue negotiations without preconditions. This can be called a significant advance, since for the first time Turkey officially declares the rejection of the preconditions.
On February 2, charter flights between Armenia and Turkey resumed, which was discontinued in 2019. According to Aram Ananyan, Head of the Board of Directors of the Armenian airline FlyOne Armenia, "Yerevan-Istanbul-Yerevan flights will be operated twice a week, on Mondays and Fridays. In the coming months, the airline plans to operate three flights a week on the Yerevan-Istanbul-Yerevan route on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays." In addition to FlyOne Armenia, the Armenian aviation authorities also gave permission to operate flights of the Turkish airline Pegasus.
On March 12, Armenian and Turkish Foreign Ministers Ararat Mirzoyan and Mevlut Cavusoglu met within the framework of the diplomatic forum in Antalya. Minister Mirzoyan expressed gratitude to his colleague for the invitation. The diplomats reaffirmed their readiness to fully normalize relations between Armenia and Turkey and establish good neighborliness without preconditions. The parties agreed that such a development of events is necessary for the entire region. The Foreign Ministers expressed their support for the work of the special representatives of the two countries in this process.
On March 15, within the framework of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan gave an interview to the Anadolu agency and noted the following [5] :
· "I would like to remind you that the leaders of the two countries, Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Erdogan, exchanged public statements in which they expressed their readiness to start negotiations between the two countries. Later, special representatives for the settlement of relations were appointed. Two meetings have already taken place, respectively in Moscow and Vienna, during which they agreed to continue negotiations aimed at full normalization of relations without preconditions. I visited Antalya and participated in the Antalya Diplomatic Forum to once again confirm the political will of the Government of the Republic of Armenia to achieve full normalization of relations with Turkey and open an era of peaceful and sustainable development in the region."
· "In general, we positively assess the current process of settling relations between Armenia and Turkey. Armenia is ready to establish diplomatic relations with Turkey and open borders. I was glad to hear from my Turkish colleague that they also have the political will to lead the process towards this goal. I think now, when events in the world are developing very quickly, we should not delay with concrete steps."
· "People are already using direct flights from Yerevan to Istanbul. The opening of borders will have a positive impact on trade and economic relations, contacts between people and stability in the region as a whole."
· "This is the first visit of a high-ranking Armenian official to Turkey in the last decade. Of course, if the settlement process proceeds smoothly and we achieve positive results, mutual visits are possible."
· "In general, the population of Armenia supports normalization of relations with Turkey. This is reflected in public opinion polls. Of course, there are groups in both Armenian and Turkish society that are, so to speak, skeptical about this process. Officials from both sides should take the initiative in addressing these issues. During my meeting with Minister Cavusoglu, we exchanged views on some sensitive points, and I hope that they will be taken into account."
On March 23, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said in parliament: "We are convinced that Armenia and Turkey can and should normalize, regulate relations, that is, establish relations and open borders. In the context of this process, the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Turkey also had a positive impact. The decision to participate in the Antalya Forum at the level of the Foreign Minister was the right decision. Of course, no tangible, concrete agreement was reached, but both sides confirmed that we are continuing the dialogue, the process without preconditions, with the aim of really opening the borders. Tactically, there are some differences in pace between the two sides, but overall, at least verbally, both sides have confirmed that the end result is the opening of borders. We also discussed current issues in the context of the opening of borders, that is, border, trade and others, in order to make life easier for our compatriots working in this field."
On March 24, the second meeting of the special representatives on the normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey took place in Vienna. The diplomats confirmed that the ultimate goal of the negotiations is a full-fledged settlement, as agreed during the first meeting in Moscow. The sides exchanged views on possible joint concrete steps in this direction and confirmed their agreement to continue the process without preconditions.
On April 13, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated: "Armenia has never had territorial claims against Azerbaijan, and the Artsakh issue is not a question of territory, but a question of law, therefore, guarantees of the security of the Armenians of Karabakh, ensuring their rights and freedoms and clarifying the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh are of fundamental importance for Armenia.... If we do not take this step [signing of a peace agreement - approx. author], then there will be a new war, and the international community will not help us. I am not ready to repeat the mistakes of 2020... Today, the international community is telling us: lower your bar a little on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, and you will have greater international consolidation. Otherwise, they ask not to place any hopes on them. This is not due to a lack of desire to provide assistance, but to the fact that they are simply unable to provide it... The international community clearly tells us: being the only country in the world that does not recognize the territorial integrity of Turkey's ally, Azerbaijan, is a great threat not only to Karabakh, but also to Armenia… I have agreed that the Foreign Ministers should begin preparatory work for a peace treaty..." [6] .
With this speech, Nikol Pashinyan sharply lowered the bar of Armenia's demands on the Karabakh settlement issue. If earlier the Armenian side demanded the granting of independence to Nagorno-Karabakh, now it has stated that guarantees of the security of the Armenian population of Karabakh, ensuring their rights and freedoms and clarifying the final status of the region are of fundamental importance for Armenia. It was a big step towards meeting the demands of Azerbaijan and Turkey.
On April 25, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan held a telephone conversation with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov, during which Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on the structure of the commission on delimitation and border security. The ministers also exchanged views on the implementation of the agreements reached at the level of the leaders of the two countries. The sides discussed issues related to the resolution of humanitarian issues and the preparation of peace talks.
On May 2-6, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan paid a working visit to the United States. In Washington, the Minister met with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Director of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Samantha Power, Special Assistant to the US President Amanda Slot, senior representatives of the US Congress and delivered a speech at the Atlantic Council analytical center.
During the meeting with the head of the American Foreign Ministry, Mirzoyan highly appreciated the principled position of the United States regarding the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, emphasizing the importance of the statement by US President Joe Biden on the occasion of the anniversary of the events. The interlocutors exchanged views on the beginning of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on a comprehensive peace treaty.
Mirzoyan stressed the importance of the US mediation efforts aimed at the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict, as Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, presented to Anthony Blinken Azerbaijan's actions aimed at creating a humanitarian crisis in Artsakh, and stressed the need for the repatriation of Armenian prisoners of war, hostages and other detained persons, as well as the preservation of Armenian cultural and religious heritage in the territories under the control of Azerbaijan.
During the meeting, the implementation of agreements on the establishment of a commission on border demarcation and security was also discussed. Minister Mirzoyan informed the interlocutor about the development of the process of normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey. Secretary Blinken noted that the United States fully supports the normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey and appreciates Armenia's constructive efforts in this process.
