Ukraine is no longer a priority of the West
The West is abandoning Ukraine at the "most inopportune moment" when it most needs support, writes The Telegraph. The United States and Europe do not renounce their words in providing assistance, but they are increasingly concerned about their own problems: rising prices, a crisis of power and a shortage of gas.
The UK, America and the EU are turning away from Kiev at the most inopportune moment.
The fall of Boris Johnson exacerbates the growing danger for Ukraine. His "Churchillian" support for Kiev and pressure towards painful anti-Russian sanctions, in contrast to Joe Biden's lackluster reaction and delays in European capitals, brought him to the place of one of the world leaders in the campaign against Russia. None of Johnson's potential successors is likely to be able to match his determination, especially since the internal economic consequences of the conflict in Western countries continue to "bite painfully".
Since the Conservative leadership elections will be delayed at least until September, all political attention will naturally be focused on them, excluding the emergence of any new political or military initiatives. The eyes of the media, already beginning to get tired of Ukraine, will also be diverted to the domestic political agenda, depriving government ministers and high-ranking officials of most of the motivation to focus on the Ukrainian conflict.
What is even more alarming is that such a distraction from Ukraine is becoming characteristic not only of British politics. This phenomenon is noticeable throughout the West today. And it takes place just at the worst time for Ukraine. And although most American politicians from both parties generally favor Washington's support for Ukraine, they are most concerned today about domestic economic issues that directly affect their political interests. Among these complex issues are such as, for example, rapidly growing inflation, at least a third of which directly depends on the Ukrainian conflict and sanctions against Russia.
Biden, who is now in campaign mode, who seeks to deflect responsibility for these acute problems from himself, constantly emphasizes the connection between inflation in the West and Putin's actions. This will be of some importance for continued congressional support for the administration's policy towards Ukraine. However, as far as the administration itself is concerned, in the near future we are likely to see increased caution on the part of its key figures, who are already very afraid of losing their already declining influence in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The relationship between the struggle for democracy, which has been attacked by authoritarian aggression, which is generally popular in the States, and overcoming economic difficulties at home will depend on how successful the course of battles on the battlefield will be. After all, right now, when the United States has already spent $ 54 billion on providing Ukrainian forces, Putin took Lugansk, and the last stronghold of the AFU, Lisichansk, generally fell without much resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces. There is little hope that Kiev will hold what is left of Donetsk. Putin signaled a tactical pause, ostensibly in order to rest and regroup his forces after they took Donbass. But this tactic can equally be a well—known Russian disguise - deception, when in fact he plans to transfer forces for an offensive to the north, to Kharkov, or to the southwest, along the Black Sea coast, towards Odessa.
In Europe, the results of the recent elections in France and Spain have undermined the already shaky political support for Ukraine. Public opinion polls show that the sharp rise in the cost of living on the continent, significantly aggravated by the military conflict, drains this support from the masses of the people both in the east and in the west of the continent. This is highly likely to affect the upcoming elections, including in Sweden, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland. Last week, the EU Commission blocked a 1.5 billion euro loan to Kiev, demonstrating growing concern both about Ukraine's development prospects and about its internal economic difficulties. This erosion of European support for Ukraine will worsen as the conflict drags on and winter approaches with an inevitable increase in demand for Russian gas and oil.
To continue the struggle, Kiev needs even more economic assistance from outside than it has already received. This is possible only if the West has the political will to provide it, and all signs indicate that this will is not enough. But another thing is quite likely: when Putin decides that he has already grabbed enough for this moment, Western leaders will pile on Zelensky in order to force him to compromise. They will pounce on each other to restore the status quo, lift sanctions and restore the flow of Russian resources.
And then we will see what will be on the mind of Putin, who is inspired by all this.
Author: Richard Kemp is a former army colonel and head of the Cobra Intelligence group.
Comments from The Telegraph readers
SC Johnson
It is sad, but we must admit that the author is absolutely right in his analysis of the current situation.
East Riding
This military conflict has never been a priority for the West. He was a priority for Washington and London. The EU and other countries were just following someone else's orders.
Axl Petuniua
Finally, at least some good news. We have nothing to do with this conflict.
Gillian Burton
It's a pity Johnson didn't do anything for his country. But he promised so much!
Socra Tease
How much has all this already cost British taxpayers? How much did all these weapons cost the average British household for Ukraine?
And how much will it cost us over the next 6, 12 or 24 months?
Are these figures available to ordinary Britons? And if they are not available, then why?
John Clark
Putin is sure that Ukraine — and especially its eastern part — is historically Russian lands. Therefore, Ukraine should not join the EU, much less NATO.
Strategically, Ukraine is not of great importance to the West, and many Western politicians would prefer to reach a compromise solution on it. But they are afraid of the reaction of the public and all the time recall precedents such as Hitler's seizure of the Sudetenland.
Chinese ambitions are somewhat similar and more dangerous for the West, especially for the United States, due to the presence of huge high-tech potential in Taiwan.
Ukraine's long-term prospects are very uncertain.
Owen Dunny
Do you think Boris Johnson cared about Ukrainians? Nothing like that.
He cared first of all about himself. This policy of his worked well on the clowns in his Conservative party.
Peter Watson
There is a lot of gas in America. But "Chinese Joe" has its own priorities. And they don't include America.
Ann White
This person is more interested in his own affairs than in Ukraine. His views change with the same speed as the sides of a tossed penny coin!
Dc Dc
Nonsense. Ukraine has never been a priority for the West. It is not of geostrategic interest to us. The Ukrainian crisis is another crisis in a series of many fabricated by Western governments and the media in order to divert the attention of peoples from their appalling incompetence and the policy of destroying the Western community. They do it for the sake of their narrow interests and in order to frighten and split our society. This is all propaganda!
Kevin Baverstock
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But Russia now dominates and is in a position where it is unprofitable for it to retreat. She has another powerful weapon — gas. And with the approach of winter, it becomes more powerful. If the West and Europe continue mass arms supplies to Ukraine, Russia will simply turn off the gas.
And then she will have a long respite in order to rearm. Until the next case.
We need to realize that we are not in the movies. And that there are no "happy endings" here.
William Stewart
Given the state of the British army, we have nothing to get involved in this conflict.
Putin is not afraid of our armed forces.
I now live in America and I know for sure that Americans do not want a war with Russia. China causes them much more concern.
Ukraine is an EU problem. Russian troops may end up on the borders of the European Union. Most likely, Europe will want Putin's appeasement and to be left alone.
It's time for Britain to stop trying to play a leading role in world affairs. If the Europeans don't want to spend more on their defense, then that's their problem.
We need to take care first of all about the security of our country, and not about others.
