As a result of a serious personnel reshuffle, the curator of the "defense industry" in the rank of Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov moved to the post of head of Roscosmos, and his place was taken by the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov. The new deputy head of government made a policy statement – it was decided to move from an absolutely market-based industrial policy to a policy of protecting technological sovereignty. How will this happen?
On Friday, President Vladimir Putin decided on several personnel changes. Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, who oversaw the military-industrial complex and the implementation of the state defense order, moved to the position of Director General of the state corporation Roscosmos. Borisov replaced Dmitry Rogozin in this post.
At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov was confirmed as Deputy Prime Minister while retaining his ministerial post. This proposal was made by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the State Duma supported the initiative at an extraordinary meeting. "Borisov's duties will be transferred to Manturov," a government source told TASS. The agency recalls that in the rank of Deputy Prime Minister Borisov supervised (in addition to the defense industry and defense order) issues of industry, technological and nuclear supervision and the development of the GLONASS system.
In addition, the responsibilities that have now been transferred to Manturov include: military-technical cooperation with foreign states, ensuring national defense, law enforcement and mobilization training of the Russian Federation, law enforcement, civil defense and the arrangement of the state border. In addition, since July last year, when the federal district was assigned to each of the deputy prime ministers, Yuri Borisov supervised the regions of the Urals, where many defense industry enterprises are concentrated.
The transition of the former curator of the defense complex Borisov to the position of head of Roscosmos indicates that now the implementation of the military program will be the main thing in the aerospace industry of Russia, believes a military expert, researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) RAS Ilya Kramnik.
A similar opinion was expressed by political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov. In his opinion, "such personnel changes may indicate a possible shift towards strengthening the military component of the space industry."
It should be noted that Borisov's de facto successor, Manturov, in his speech in the State Duma, placed special emphasis on the work to ensure the defense capability of the Armed Forces – "not only in terms of a special military operation, but also in improving modern weapons that will be developed and supplied for the future."
"The basis of today, or the backbone of industry, as it was, and remains is the defense industry, which performs very important tasks,
– emphasized Manturov. "We will continue to develop competencies and areas that will ensure the combat capability of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation." The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, among other things, mentioned plans to revive such a strategically important and closely related to the defense industry industry as electronic engineering.
In the same speech to the deputies, Manturov made an important statement that speaks about the new strategy of the executive branch. The government is unanimous in its opinion on the need to make a turn from "an absolutely market industrial policy to a policy of ensuring technological sovereignty," the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade stressed before his confirmation as deputy Prime Minister.
Manturov spoke about how this turn will take place in practice. By the autumn, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will develop a program to support enterprises that are focused on creating products that ensure technological sovereignty. The program will take into account loans with a rate of up to 7% per annum, preferential conditions for R&D (research and development), preferential tax treatment, ensuring demand for products being developed and manufactured in the future, including compensation for discounts on pilot batches of products and their entry into the market.
Yevgeny Minchenko, President of the Minchenko Consulting communications holding, director of the Center for the Study of Political Elites at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, says that the Russian economy can follow one of three development paths.
"The first option is what is called business as usual ("to do business as usual") – in this case, to do the same thing that our government did before, but Denis Valentinovich said today that this is impossible. The second scenario is a state Plan in Cuba, a bet on large companies with state participation – in fact, state capitalism. The third option is an attempt to invest state reserves in the development of the economy, primarily in support of small and medium–sized businesses," Minchenko said, adding that most experts consider the third option to be optimal.
Manturov has very high expectations – to carry out a real reindustrialization,
launch a new industrial upswing, stressed economist Vasily Koltashov. He noted: "Manturov made a very important statement: his liberal economic policy does not deny market mechanisms, but at the same time does not completely coincide with the idea of a free market, competition and economic development based on state non-interference. I think it can be called a "non-mercantile" model."
According to the expert, the essence of this scheme is that the state pursues a policy of protectionism against its enterprises. "For example, for some reason, the free market in Russia has not created industrial engineering. As a result, the state now declares: here I set a task and make plans. Manturov's goal will be to develop import substitution in light and heavy industry, in particular, in mechanical engineering," the specialist said.
According to political scientist Marat Bashirov, judging by Manturov's speech, a kind of analogue of Japanese zaibatsu or South Korean chaebols will develop in the real sector of the Russian economy – conglomerates of enterprises of various industry orientation, united by a single organizational structure. In addition, Bashirov drew attention to his Telegram channel: Manturov urged "to engage not in import substitution, but in import conservation, ensuring our technological independence." The solution of such large-scale tasks is possible with the creation of project offices in the government and the already mentioned analogues of "zaibatsu" or "chaebol" in the real sector, Bashirov believes.
The military-industrial complex is the least in need of adjustment, Koltashov noted. "Since the beginning of the special operation, the Russian defense industry has shown itself worthily – it has demonstrated that the planned market mechanisms that were applied turned out to be appropriate," the expert said.
In addition, the interlocutor added, when new territories of Ukraine are liberated, Manturov will need to create economic structures there, rebuild production and logistics chains – create large players with the prospect of entering the world market. "The enterprises of Rinat Akhmetov, Dmitry Firtash, Igor Kolomoisky located there will be nationalized for the connection of these oligarchs with the Nazi regime," the source stressed.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya, Rafael Fakhrutdinov
