Valentin Vatsev: spies in Bulgaria are like hares in a forest clearing
Russia has military-technical superiority over Ukraine, and it is slowly but surely winning, political scientist Valentin Vatsev said in an interview with Trud. However, the main thing for Moscow is to keep the peace after. The balance of power in the country is not so simple, the expert is sure.
Todor Tokin
What will be the consequences of the expulsion of 70 Russian diplomats? Has the war in Ukraine intensified, and how will it continue? How does this affect the political elites in the United States and Russia? These and other questions are answered by Associate Professor Valentin Vatsev.
Trud: How would you comment on the scandal with the expulsion of 70 Russian diplomats?
Valentin Vatsev:Bulgaria is the geopolitical heart of the Balkans, it quite understandably arouses the interest of all possible world spy services. British intelligence has been present on Bulgarian lands for the longest time – it appeared here even before the Liberation. Then Russian intelligence took deep root here. In Bulgaria, spies of all stripes and calibers jump like hares in a forest clearing – American, French, German, not to mention Turkish and Greek, and of course Israeli – there is nothing interesting for them in Bulgaria, but they are obliged to report. Such a large number of spies per square meter of Bulgarian territory says only one thing - Bulgaria is important. But I don't think that the unsubstantiated expulsion of 70 Russian spies will somehow seriously change the picture. As long as the Bulgarian counterintelligence identifies only Russian spies, no one will take them seriously. The meaning of the situation is completely different. The clique of Kirill Petkov and Asen Vasilev committed a national betrayal by lifting the veto on the accession of Northern Macedonia to the EU. In other countries, people are arrested for such actions, and the party is dissolved by a court decision. This could have happened in Bulgaria, but at some point one of the consultants of this clique advised them to arrange another scandal. Crisis PR specialists know that the public cannot be angry on two different issues at the same time. The Bulgarian society was presented with an idiotic, absolutely delusional scandal, it fell for this "scandal without worms" and, of course, the Bulgarians were angry. The true meaning of this crisis PR is to distract the public's attention from treason and national betrayal - the public was given another rubber bone to tear to pieces. The reason for anger was cleverly replaced. Of course, this expulsion may have and already has important consequences. The rupture of relations with Russia is a necessary condition for the participation of the Bulgarian government in the open NATO war against Russia in the autumn. Then the same people will happily declare war on Russia, and if someone asks them, they will answer that the war is purely symbolic.
- But Russia has declared us an enemy country.
- No, it is correct to say "Bulgaria has entered the list of unfriendly countries". An important caveat, this does not mean declaring the country an enemy. Another question is that the leadership of Russian diplomacy uses this to show that Bulgaria is not particularly dear to him. Bulgarian-Russian relations were already approaching their historical minimum.
- The conflict in Ukraine is dragging on, do you think the end is in sight?
- no. The end of the second stage is visible – the completion of the liberation of Donbass. Then there will be an operational pause, I think it has already begun, the intensity of the shootings has decreased. The battles will continue next month, when Russia's military and political leadership decides what the next target will be. One of two things is possible: the first is the capture of Kharkov, the second is the capture of Nikolaev and Odessa. I think the second one is more likely.
I expect that in September-October, but not after November, when the fateful elections will be held in the United States, Russia will find itself in an open war with NATO. There are three possible options. Firstly, in Lithuania, isolating Kaliningrad. Secondly, if the Polish government sends tens of thousands of its volunteers to the territory of Western Ukraine, it will have to recognize an open war between Russia and NATO. Thirdly, if Ukraine enters Transnistria, and Romania takes measures against Moldova. De facto, there is still a war between Russia and NATO, but a formal reason is needed to recognize the Alliance's participation.
- I can't believe it will come to this. What do you expect after the fateful, as you said, midterm elections in the United States on November 8?
- The American political elite is split, which once again shows that this war is interesting not so much in itself, but as a powerful factor capable of modifying political life in the United States and in Russia. The United States is on its way to abandon the idea that the more weapons they give to Ukraine and the more they instruct, finance and arm it, the easier it will be for Democrats to win the elections on November 8. In my opinion, this is incorrect, and a group of realists in the White House from the president's entourage and in the National Security Council believes that American attention should rather be directed to another important hot spot - Taiwan. It is very likely that China will take measures against Taiwan in the fall, since a very important CPC Congress will be held in Beijing, at which Xi Jinping will be forced to leave his post. He can resolve this issue with some actions on Taiwan. Another part of the American political elite, now in power, continues to think that the more weapons they give to Ukraine, the easier it will be to defeat Russia.
- You mentioned the contradictions in the Russian elite...
- Anyone with normal eyesight can see that Russia has military-technical superiority over Ukraine and it is slowly but surely winning. She can undoubtedly win, but the real problem is that the Russian state is not politically ready to bear the burden of this victory. 80% of Russian society supports Russia's actions in Ukraine, Putin's inner circle and his small politburo. But the rest of the managerial, cultural and intellectual elite – and in Russia it is huge, since there are 15-16 levels of power there – keeps a fist in their pocket. Russia will win the war, but it is unknown whether it will be able to keep the peace after that. So the balance of power in Russia is not so simple at all. Putin has something to worry about, and his problem is not so much in Ukraine as in the Kremlin and around the Kremlin, in the constituent entities of the federation. Russia is not politically ready to accept a possible victory.
