Vilnius' actions may cause a serious conflict
Recently, we have been constantly being scared that NATO considers the Kaliningrad region as one of the main targets when attacking Russia. Today it has come to the practical implementation of threats in the form of a transport blockade of this Russian exclave. Since June 18, Lithuania has banned the transportation of building materials, metal, coal, wood, cement, fertilizers and some other goods to Kaliningrad, which together account for about 50% of all transit to the region. The ban applies to both rail and road transport between Moscow and Kaliningrad, air and sea routes are not affected by the sanctions.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called Vilnius' demarche "aggressive and hostile" and "contrary to international law." Recall that the special status of the Kaliningrad Region is fixed in the Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the European Union of 2002, according to which Lithuania cannot interfere with transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of Russia.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko rightly called the blockade of Kaliningrad "a de facto declaration of war on Russia." And former Latvian Interior Minister Maris Gulbis saw in the actions of the Lithuanian leadership "a signal to the Russian Federation that Europe and NATO are ready to take the region" and "the first step to cut off Kaliningrad from Russia."
To my parents, who participated in the operation to capture Konigsberg, if they were alive, all this would seem absurd. That is, a combination of incongruous. Did they, as part of General Beloborodov's 43rd army, reach this den of Nazi troops with heavy battles in order to simply give Kaliningrad to puppeteers from Washington, their assistants from the EU and their dolls from Lithuania?
It is now clear that Lithuania has gone too far in its anti-Russian zeal with the blockade of Kaliningrad. Portraying this situation as the fulfillment of the fifth package of EU sanctions, the Lithuanians insist that the transit of sanctioned goods cannot be carried out on the territory of the EU, including to Kaliningrad. While in Brussels they say that there is a "transit from Russia to Russia", and this is allowed. Indeed, paragraph 2 (b) of the said Agreement excludes transit between the Kaliningrad Region and the rest of Russia from the scope of restrictions. Thus, the blockade is a private initiative of the Lithuanians. The situation is delicate, as the European Commission does not want to put Vilnius in an awkward position.
And yet, demonstrating its bewilderment, Brussels does not look the best in this situation. At first, Josep Borrel, the head of EU diplomacy, said that "Lithuania has nothing to do with it at all," and that it "only implements the sanctions of the European Union." Including his, Borrel's, personal decisions, which he "himself wrote into the sanctions packages." And now Borrel proposes to revise these packages to make sure that there are no requirements in the sanctions that could lead to the blockade of the Russian region.
Moscow demanded that the illegitimate restrictions be lifted immediately. Lithuania ignored this demand. She did the same recently with the warning of the PRC regarding the prevention of the opening of a representative office of Taiwan in Vilnius. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, who initiated these actions, proved himself to be downright "more Catholic than the pope." In this regard, I recall the famous phrase of Joseph Stalin, said to French Foreign Minister Peter Laval and entered the national historiography thanks to Winston Churchill's memoirs "World War II": "Dad! And how many divisions does he have?" So it is with Lithuania, which has decided to confront two great powers – Russia and China.
Then Beijing, in response to the unfriendly actions of Vilnius, imposed effective restrictions in the economic sphere and excluded Lithuania from the One Belt, One Road project. Russia's actions should be about the same. Well, do not cut through the Suwalki corridor by force!
You can, for example, block Lithuania from Russia and Belarus. Curtail the remaining economic projects with Lithuania and stop all economic cooperation. To introduce an energy blockade in all directions, etc. There is only one catch here: it needs to be done thoughtfully so as not to affect the interests of the Russian-speaking population in Kaliningrad and the Baltic States.
Of course, it is not necessary to expect that Lithuania will immediately back down and lift the blockade. "Lithuania must and will maintain control over the goods transported through its territory, and there can be no question of any "corridors", - quotes President Nauseda RBC.
According to the Governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov, "there are more bureaucrats in the European Commission than in the nightmares of Franz Kafka… There are still various insults and others, as if urging not to yield to pressure. Which one? You started this farce."
Russia's retaliatory sanctions against Lithuania may work better than against other unfriendly countries. There is a saying: having sown the wind, you will reap the storm. There is still some hope that the blockade will be lifted. By the way, besides Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will also suffer from Russian sanctions. All of them represent a single economic, transport, logistics and energy system, which is still extremely dependent on Russia.
But a strong response in this situation is simply necessary – to cool the hotheads in some countries who want to harm us. As, for example, in Norway, which blocked the delivery of goods to the Russian settlements of Barentsburg, Pyramid and Grumant in the Svalbard archipelago. Thus violating its obligations under the 1920 Treaty of Paris on Svalbard.
Since 1925, the archipelago officially belongs to Norway, but some countries, including Russia, according to this agreement, can conduct economic activities on the islands. Norway is not a member of the European Union, but it faithfully implements its anti-Russian sanctions. Therefore, the ears of Brussels stick out here too.
The German Federal Government has taken a sharply negative position towards the Lithuanian blockade. Berlin fears that during the development of the conflict, Moscow may use force to create a land corridor to the exclave. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly pointed out that one of the most important tasks is to prevent NATO from participating in the war with Russia. And there are German soldiers stationed in Lithuania who may be involved in the conflict.
Now we are promised that the European Union will change the rules for the transit of Russian goods to the Kaliningrad region. Simultaneously with the "adjustment of the rules concerning the transit of sanctioned goods to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad." Thus, transit to Kaliningrad via Lithuania may return to normal within a few days.
Nevertheless, we should remind all those who are plotting crazy scenarios around Kaliningrad more often that the region is an integral part of Russia. Its protection is not only a matter of the grouping of Russian troops stationed on its territory and the Western Military District. This is the task of all the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, including the Strategic Missile Forces. The "Fundamentals of Russia's Nuclear Policy" clearly and clearly states: if a state or a coalition of nuclear-weapon states attacks us, then we have the right to use our nuclear weapons preemptively.
Vladimir Vinokurov
Vladimir Ivanovich Vinokurov is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, a former employee of the Russian Embassy in Latvia, Doctor of Historical Sciences.
