Arms supplies to Ukraine grow amid calls for peace
In the summer, the nature of the special military operation (SVO) has changed significantly. The backbone of the Ukrainian nationalist army is breaking. This is evidenced by the incessant shelling of residential areas of Donetsk and other key points of the DPR. Dozens of large-caliber shells are fired at them every day. The destruction of the cities of Donbass is in accordance with "Western standards": NATO calibers 155 and 227 mm are widely used. The West is increasing supplies to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and changing the assortment on the go. Instead of portable anti-tank (Javelin, NLAW, etc.) and anti-aircraft weapons (Stinger), large-caliber artillery came to the fore.
In parallel, there is an accelerated retirement of similar Soviet artillery systems. The huge arsenals of weapons that Ukraine inherited as a result of the collapse of the USSR, for the most part, were destroyed by the fire of Russian troops or exhausted the resource laid down by the designers. In the summer, the AFU artillery de facto made the transition to NATO standards in key positions.
The most striking example is field howitzers. In place of Hyacinths and other 152 mm caliber systems came the American-British M-777, Czech Danes, Polish Crabs, German PzH2000 and French CAESAR 155 mm caliber. Instead of rocket shells "Hurricanes" (220 mm) and "Tornadoes" (300 mm), the Ukrainian army is increasingly releasing 227-mm missiles from launchers such as HIMARS and M270 MLRS.
The German and French press writes that individual samples of PzH2000 and CAESAR were "captured by the Russians and are being studied by them." Politicians and journalists of these countries present what happened almost as a national tragedy.
Sober-minded Europeans come to the conclusion that the growing supply of Western artillery, including rocket artillery, is in principle not capable of changing the situation on the front line.
Meanwhile, recipients of weapons in Ukraine revel in the fact that howitzers and multiple launch rocket systems from NATO countries "do a better job" with the destruction of settlements in Donbass. On the night of July 12, the APU struck from HIMARS at Novaya Kakhovka, as a result, warehouses with saltpeter and mineral fertilizers exploded, city facilities, including a market, a hospital and residential buildings were damaged. In short, Kiev's almost nine-year strategic line of terror and destruction of the civilian population of the eastern regions of the once united country, which decided to pursue an independent course in 2014, continues.
This line led to a deep split, first of Ukrainian society, and then of the whole world. The meeting of the heads of diplomatic departments of the G20 countries on the island of Bali was indicative. Commenting on its results, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, had to admit that the point of view of the collective West (represented by the EU, NATO, etc.) on the events in Ukraine "did not prevail" in the G20. In fact, they adhere to a different position than that of the collective West. "The global battle of narratives is in full swing, and so far we are not winning," Borrel stated.
The following observation is related to the immediate development of the situation in the area of the SVO. Despite the expectations of many domestic and foreign experts, the APU no longer fall into the "boilers" of the spring type in Mariupol. And the point here is not at all in the lack of forces and the level of mechanization of the Russian army.
The complete encirclement of units and subunits of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with subsequent destruction or capture of the Russian side is less advantageous than the gradual squeezing of the retreating enemy to the west along narrow "corridors" shot through by field artillery. An example is the capture of the Severodonetsk–Lisichansk agglomeration. The AFU group that had been holed up there all the time had ways to retreat and under increasing enemy fire was forced to use them. At the same time, she abandoned almost all heavy equipment: a lack of fuel and a great vulnerability when moving along bullet-riddled roads, especially columns, prevented her from withdrawing.
The loss of manpower is also large: according to the British newspaper Daily Mail, the APU loses 20 thousand soldiers and officers every month. Having completely squeezed out the AFU units and formations from Lisichansk and having cleared the entire territory of the LPR, Russian troops and Donbass militias are developing an offensive on Seversk. However, they are now operating in a smaller composition. "The units that took part in active hostilities and achieved success, victories in the Luhansk direction, of course, should rest, increase their combat capabilities," President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the head of the military department Sergei Shoigu.
After some time, the soldiers and officers assigned to the rear will reappear at the front. The only question is how soon – and, most importantly, where? As expected, the best parts of the strike group will be transferred from Lisichansk to another direction. There are several possible scenarios, and they are now being carefully developed by the Russian General Staff. Since there is no numerical advantage (in terms of the number of personnel) over the APU (there is only a qualitative one in terms of weapons), free forces and means will most likely be concentrated on one strategic direction. Such may be the attack on Nikolaev and further on Odessa – in order to finally deprive Bandera Ukraine of access to the Black Sea.
The second possible direction is Kharkiv: the second largest city in Ukraine and the capital of the region with a predominant Russian–speaking population. The third direction is to the city of Zaporozhye and further along the Dnieper River to take over the large industrial enterprises located here. The fourth is from the north and northeast to Kiev, where the decision–making centers of today's Ukraine are located.
And what is Ukraine after almost five months of its own? Ukraine has lost about 20% of its territory, about 3 thousand settlements, half of the gross national product, and a third of coal production. It completely lost access to the Sea of Azov, and traffic through the Black Sea ports froze due to fighting and mining of fairways. The number of refugees has reached 7 million.
Assessing the current situation and the vector of its development, more and more politicians in the West are talking about the need for the administration of Vladimir Zelensky to resume negotiations with the Kremlin in a constructive manner. However, sanity and constructivism have never been the strong point of the Ukrainian elite. And, it seems, Kiev is still not in high esteem.
Vladimir Karnozov
